First Ukraine, now Moldova? Is the Kremlin going to spread the war?
Probable attacks on the territory of Transnistria have led to the flight of some people from the self-separated region of Moldova. In addition, fears of Putin’s war spreading outside Ukraine have grown.
Kyiv has accused Moscow of carrying out attacks, including bombings that damaged two radio towers and a building with separatist offices in Tiraspol, the unrecognized capital of Transnistria. The region broke away from Moldova in the early 1990s after a short war.
Moldova’s reaction was more cautious. After a meeting with security officials on April 26, the Moldovan leader Maya Sanduin connection with the reason from the previous ally of the president of Russia advocates strong ties with the West, accused the “faction” of trying to escalate tensions in Transnistria.
Frightened by the attacks, people fled from Transnistria to other parts of Moldova. These attacks were preceded by the recent decision of the Russian army to brandish weapons.
It has its own combat force, about 2,000 Russian military bases based in Transnistria to guard Europe’s largest weapons depot in the village of Kobasna, 2 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
General of the Russian army Rustam Minnekaev On April 22, he said that Moscow should seize southern Ukraine, including the port city of Odesa, which would give it “another way out of Transnistria.”
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Minnekayev’s comment is a signal that Russia’s invasion is just the beginning and that “they want to seize another country.”
According Stefan WolfProfessor of the International British University of Birmingham, despite the failures of the Russian military in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin may go to seize the territory of other countries.
“Putin dreams of a scenario in which he captures all of southern Ukraine, recognizes Transnistria, and then raises issues in late Moldova, particularly in Gagauzia,” he said in a letter to Radio Liberty in Transnistria, referring to Moldova’s autonomous region. Orthodox Orthodox Christians.
Some argue that Minnekayev was simply covering new thinking in the upper echelons of the Russian military.
“The military accepts that Russia’s initial goals of the war are a serious mistake. Now they claim that Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but with NATO. ” wrote Andriy Soldatov and Irina Borogan in an article for the American Center for European Policy Analysis.
“Therefore, it was decided to the senior office that Western alliances are fighting with all their might by supplying all better weapons), but their actions are limited to peacetime and are an obstacle to air strikes on some key areas of Ukraine’s infrastructure. In short, the military is now demanding a full-scale war, including mobilization, “they wrote.
A sign of a possible change in strategy may be that on April 26 Russia launched a missile strike on the main city, which receives the Ukrainian part of Bessarabia from the last Odessa region. However, despite the attack, military experts question Russia’s ability to launch a new offensive in the region.
“I do not consider this prospect impossible and distant,” he said Michael Coffmanwho heads the program to study Russia at CNA, a nonprofit research and analytical organization, exists in Arlington, Virginia.
“In general, I think that the combat effectiveness of the Russian military has fallen sharply due to high casualties and limited access to the military. They were recruiting remnants of constant forces for reinforcements. However, this cannot compensate for the losses, “- I wrote April 20 on Twitter Coffman.
Since the start of the full-scale appeal on February 24, Russia has only twice provided official losses that were significantly lower than those of the West and Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported 498 deaths on March 2 and 1,351 dead on March 25. As of April 28, the Ukrainian General Staff estimated the number of dead Russian servicemen at 22,800.
By in words other analysts, Russia has suffered such large-scale losses of all military equipment during the two months of fighting in Ukraine that the minute “years”, first of all, Russia will be ready for a new war.
“In fact, Moscow does not have these military capabilities. They already have so much strength to succeed in Donbass, – said Wolf. – It is also unknown whether it will be possible to secure the newly occupied territories, because currently their “plan” will ensure the purchase of only a third of Ukraine’s territory. The new proxies and the occupiers did not save them from the long-term resistance of the Ukrainian army, which would have secured the party and NATO. “
Conrad Music, a Polish defense analyst also doubts that Russia will expand its own in the near future. “Russia is now focused on Donbass and northeastern Kherson,” Music told Radio Svoboda, referring to a region controlled by Russian hybrid forces in southeastern Ukraine and the region north of Crimea.
According to Music and other military analysts, Ukraine’s influence to repel Russia’s attacks in the southern port city of Mykolayiv is crucial for stopping any Russian advance eastward along the Black Sea coast.
“Everyone is talking about defending Kyiv, but Mykolayiv was and remains important,” Music said, referring to Russia’s retreat in early April from areas around the Ukrainian capital, which prompted the Kremlin, at least publicly, to reduce its military goals.
Dionysus CenusIn an interview with Radio Liberty, he suggested that if Moscow decided to step up its attack on Transnistria, it would still not receive much support from poorly deployed troops.
“There are up to 2,000 soldiers of the operative group of Russian troops in Transnistria. Why, under such conditions, would Russia open a new front? ” – Tsenuza said about 1,500 Russian servicemen, who are said to be guarding a huge ammunition depot in the village of Kobasna, and about 500 soldiers who assure Moscow that they are “peacekeepers”. Chisinau has long demanded the withdrawal of these troops.
Separatist Transnistria also has its own armed forces, numbering between 4,000 and 7,500, although little is known about their combat capabilities and equipment.
Although the prospect of a full-scale attack on Transnistria is currently lower, Moscow may try to destabilize Moldova.
Together with Sandu, Moldova’s president-elect, in December 2020, the Kremlin lost a key alliance. Western parties also succeeded in the July 2021 parliamentary elections, further undermining the Kremlin’s influence in the country.
Wolff is convinced that this is why the Kremlin organized the latest incident in Transnistria.
“I still think it’s most likely coming from Moscow, but it could have been done with some paid-for exercises. What I heard from the sources is the horror of Tiraspol and Chisinau that they are being dragged into the war in Ukraine, so they are trying to avoid any destabilization, “Wolf said.
Russia’s security services are arguably debating whether or not to destabilize Moldova in order to “link” Ukrainian forces on the southern border, counter growing pro-European sentiment in the country, and show the West that Ukraine’s support now risks serious consequences, including and for the Balkans, “they said Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds in his recent article “Operation Z: The Deathly Hallows of Imperial Delusion”published by the British Royal Institute of United Services.
On April 7, Moldovan President Sandu announced a ban on the display of the St. George ribbon, a black-and-orange symbol long associated with Russian aggression in Ukraine, as well as the widely used Russian military symbol, the letter “Z”.
After the ban was introduced, according to Watling and Reynolds, Ukrainian intelligence began to receive reports that Russia’s Federal Security Service was discussing the organization of a protest movement in Moldova.
According to the political scientist Christian Vlas, such an undermining is the most likely scenario for Moldova. “Despite the fact that pro-Russian socialists have stated that they will hold a rating on May 9 in honor of Victory Day without the St. George ribbon or any hints of it, provocations should be expected in Gagauzia and possibly in the north of Balti,” he said. he mentioned the second largest city in Moldova, which has a high level of commitment to Russia.
Rising prices for Russian gas greatly affect Moldovans, as it is the poorest country in Europe. Therefore, according to Vlas, the situation is especially unstable now.
“Such a protest movement does not require a large supply of food, so many people are quite worried about high inflation and rising consumer prices.”
Transnistria is a separatist region of Moldova that has not been controlled by Chisinau since 1992. Russia has had about 1,700 troops in Transnistria for more than 20 years.
In early March, the de facto Transnistrian authorities called on Moldova to recognize their “independence” and sign an intergovernmental agreement amid the Moldovan leadership’s application to join the European Union.