If the great balances were defined in Lyon by the first round, and Emmanuel Macron does not seem to be able to be challenged there by Marine Le Pen, the mechanisms of voting reports or abstention can still justify the political map. And this, especially in the Metropolis.
After a first round to shuffle the cards and the political territory of Lyon, the second opus of the presidential election undoubtedly does not carry the same stakes. However, it is here that Emmanuel Macron will aim to lock in his advantage and gain votes, as in all the urban centers that are favorable to him.
In 2017, the very young candidate had gathered 84.11% of the vote in the capital of Gaul, far ahead of Marine Le Pen whom he finds face to face this Sunday. It will therefore be a question of monitoring whether this notable and relentless gap undergoes, as on a national scale, a planing blow and this in which sectors. It is almost certain that the outgoing will finish far ahead of its rival in Lyon, who remained stuck at 8.97% in the first round.
What score in the “melenchonist” arrondissements?
The physiognomy of the ballot therefore still reserves some expectations and uncertainties, especially in the districts where Emmanuel Macron had to give up first place to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. It’s there, within 1uh4and7and8and and 9and districts of Lyon that we will observe under the magnifying glass the behavior of the electorate on the left which, 15 days ago, had gathered heterogeneous troops under the banner of the useful and rebellious vote. How will they be divided on Sunday between the Republican front and the Macron vote on the one hand, abstention or transfer in part to the far right on the other?
For Marine Le Pen, hope is less, however, even if her troops observe how she can recover the voices of Éric Zemmour. These were, moreover, notable in the traditional sectors of a right-wing bourgeoisie, in the 2and and 6and boroughs for example, where the polemicist was well ahead of the RN candidate on April 10.
No match in Lyon, tight fight in other cities of the Metropolis
This game of communicating vessels will undoubtedly be much more marked in the neighboring municipalities of Lyon. In 2017, Emmanuel Macron had produced a full box on the scale of the Metropolis, removing the 59 municipalities of the territory.
This time, in popular towns and neighborhoods where Jean-Luc Mélenchon came out on top on April 10, and where Marine Le Pen was already defending herself a little better 5 years ago, it cannot be ruled out that the candidate of the RN can contest first place. The political map of Greater Lyon could therefore be less uniform than five years ago and further strengthen the partition between popular territories and more advantaged municipalities, between west and east Lyon.
Abstention awaits in each camp
These second round effects obviously depend on abstention which, in 2017, amounted to 24.12% in Lyon with a loss of 4.5 points. On April 10, Lyon and the Metropolis were however rather civic and exemplary, voting more than in 2017 and than elsewhere in France. Will it always be like this on Sunday or will disaffection mark the ballot?
They lie in wait in the Macronist electorate who mistakenly thought that the match was folded, among Marine Le Pen’s supporters who noted that Wednesday’s debate absolutely did not make it possible to strengthen his belief and, of course, in the rebellious ranks where the poster for this second round only inspires slightly.
And then, as soon as this second round passed and its uncertain result known, the parties immediately produced the calculators to project themselves on the legislative elections. Much of the balance was largely defined by the first round. But the second will always be used to nourish agreements and disagreements for some, to scrutinize how to ensure a majority for others.