It turns out that Ukraine is not the only country where Russia went in the last year of the second year. In the summer of 2020, Russia developed a detailed plan for the invasion and occupation of Belarus, according to information provided by Ukrainian military intelligence.

“After the rigged presidential elections in Belarus, the Russian Federation developed a plan to invade and suppress popular protests,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate released on April 19 in a statement. In support of their claim, Ukrainian intelligence released a secret Russian military document that outlines the rationale and plan for the invasion of Belarus.

The document proves that the situation in Belarus after the rigged presidential elections on August 9, 2020 “maintains stability. Says opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya called from Lithuania “subversive activities” and claims that “adversary … a large-scale information and communication initiative to form united views in Western society and fully support the results of an effective change of the “regime” in Belarus. The document stated that if there was no vaccination “expanding the scale of armed surveillance”, to “Russia can be involved in the European continental region in a regional or full-scale war with NATO”.

The document sets out “plan for the regrouping of formed and military units. According to the plan, the troops will be built “when closing participation in joint exercises with the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus.

There was no independent verification of the availability of information released by Ukraine. More specifically, Ukrainian intelligence claims that a full-scale invasion of Belarus was a real phenomenon in the summer of 2020, less than two years before Russia carried out a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Putin, without firing a shot, got everything he wanted in Belarus

The presence of a Russian policy of invading Belarus is quite plausible, given the tension between Moscow and Minsk in the run-up to the August 2020 presidential election. In contrast to the external tightness of the alliance between Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko, in 2019 and in the fourth half of 2020, irritation is felt in the external environment.

Faced with sanctions and delaying the fall of the economy, Moscow has also been pressuring Belarus to strengthen concessions, after all, like hosting its own territory on its territory, a deeper power, a deeper integration of the armed forces of the revived countries, and the adoption of the born project of economic development, which actually turned out to be in favor of Belarusian sovereignty.

For his part, Lukashenka resisted confrontation and opposed Minsk’s relations with the West. In early 2020, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Belarus to “normalization” of strained relations.

Then, during a meeting with Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, Pompeo said: “The connected airlines will help Belarus build its own sovereign country. Our energy companies are ready to supply 100% of the oil turnover at useful prices. Your country should not be forced to be forced from any one partner. It’s in–in your lack of prosperity or security.”

At the time, there were signs that Russia’s military intelligence, the GRU and SVR, were alarmed by Lukashenka’s security efforts to preserve Belarusian independence and bring the country closer to the West.

In the next two years, the geopolitical situation changed dramatically with the use of Moscow. President Lukashenko’s brutal crackdown on dissent following Belarus’ August 2020 elections and consequent alienation from the West, inflated to a negative dependence on the Kremlin. It looks like this is canceled holding a full-scale Russian invasion of Belarus.

Putin, without firing a shot, got everything he wanted in Belarus. Lukashenka is completely dependent on the Kremlin. “soft annexations” of the country. Belarus has become a de facto continuation of the Western Military District of Russia. This opinion of Moscow expands the circle of its members.

Belarus also became involved in Putin’s war against. Although Minsk has not yet imported its troops for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenka has used Russia as a springboard for Russian troops. Thus, Putin was able to launch airstrikes on Ukrainian cities with Belarusian territory.

This supporting role in the conflict raised fears that Russia’s position in Belarus could be threatened. The public of Belarus causes protests against the war in Ukraine. The country began to operate “railway guerrillas”, and hundreds of Belarusians joined the volunteer battalions fighting on the side of Ukraine. As events unfold, the likelihood of destabilization in the age of Belarus could be very high.

For now, Putin is bogged down in Ukraine. However, he may turn his attention even more to a full-scale military takeover of Belarus if public opposition to Belarusian intervention in Ukraine continues to grow and threaten to undermine Russian influence. Judge of Ukraine on recent statements, plans for such an operation may already be poisoning.

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