In Slovenia, the elections will be in the midst of differences over the populist path
LJUBLJANA, Slovenia (AP) – When he visited Ukraine with two European leaders last month, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Jansa wanted to show solidarity with war-torn nations and gain support at home ahead of the expected closed parliamentary elections.
The elections, scheduled for Sunday, are taking place at a time of intensified political divisions in Slovenia. Observers say the vote will decide whether the small Alpine nation of 2 million will slip even further into right-wing populism under Jansa or return to traditional moderate balance.
Recent opinion polls show that Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party is in close competition with the Freedom Movement, a newly formed liberal-green political party. The party is led by US-educated expert Robert Golob, who has vowed to unite center-left and left-wing groups in the future coalition government.
Both parties seemed to have around 20% voter support. Surveys have shown that in the race for seats in the 90-member legislation of Slovenia, several smaller left- and right-wing groups are lagging behind. Some polls show that 20% of voters remain undecided.
As no party is likely to garner enough votes to form a government on its own, analysts have predicted that Golob will have a better chance than Janša of forming a post-election coalition.
Janša, 63, a veteran politician, took over the government at the start of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and succeeded the resigned liberal. While the prime minister boasted of economic successes in difficult times, critics are concerned about his increasingly authoritarian path.
“The match is close,” Janša said at his party’s pre-election convention. We will fight for every ballot.
Slovenia, known as a nature-loving nation of stunning beauty, has long been considered a post-communist success story and one of the most stable countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Slovenia was among the 10 countries that joined the European Union in May 2004, the largest single expansion of the bloc.
However, it came under EU scrutiny as Janša established close relations with his fellow populist, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Orban and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic – another right-wing regional leader – recently won major re-election victories.
Since becoming the leader of the Slovenian Democratic Party in 1993, Janša has served several times as Minister of Defense and Prime Minister, facing corruption trials and constantly arguing with journalists.
He denies repeated allegations that he decided to leave his party in control of the public media, intimidate critics and place loyalists in key positions in state institutions.
Fragmented leftist groups have failed to seriously challenge Janša for more than two years, despite the cooling of popular anger that has fueled street protests and clashes with police. The protests were joined by a series of civil movements seeking to incite public discontent and create a wider movement.
The 55-year-old Golob has emerged as a new face addressing Slovenes who are disappointed with the political mainstream. Under the slogan “We deserve a better country”, he promised a green transformation and sustainable development, in contrast to Janša’s strong national narrative.
For Andraz Zork, a public opinion analyst at the Valicon agency, the current election campaign was marked by fundamental efforts and tireless field work aimed at animating the new generation of Slovenian youth for the elections.
“Trends are now in favor of the Freedom Movement,” Zorko said.
Political analyst Zenel Baragelj, however, said that the election result for the AP was “impossible to predict” due to fluctuations in loyalty and several parties moving close to the 4% threshold.
Observers say Janša’s similarities with Hungary’s Orban can be seen in their anti-liberal rhetoric and style of governing and financial affairs. Orban’s associates invested in Slovenian pro-government media and companies.
The former pro-government political magazine Reporter recently called on Slovenian voters to “ask if you want to live in a country like Orban’s Hungary”. A group of prominent intellectuals and public figures said in a petition that Sunday’s elections were “of historical significance” and “the last chance to stop Janez Janša’s authoritarian aspirations”.
Janša rejected criticism as a left-wing conspiracy to undermine his government and promised voters stability and continuity in uncertain times. To hone his image, he distanced himself from Orban during the campaign and took a hard line against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In mid-March, Jansa traveled with the Polish and Czech prime ministers to the Ukrainian capital in a move that draws attention to showcase regional leadership in Europe. Shortly after the visit, the Slovenian government reopened the country’s embassy in Kiev and called on other EU countries to do the same.
Research shows that citizens’ concerns focus more on domestic issues such as social equality, environmental protection and the rule of law, rather than on the war in Ukraine. Jure Mocivnik from Ljubljana said that he expected high turnout and great interest from voters in the elections.
When asked about the outcome, Mocivnik replied: “I have no idea, anything is possible.”