When Rasmus Paludan started his «election tour» in Sweden this Easter, many Danes thought «here we go again». On again.

The far-right Dane is known for traveling around with Korans, bacon and matches.

Now it was the Swedes’ turn. At Easter in an election year.

Exactly the same recipe as last time, but with options for a different outcome. For Denmark and Sweden are very different countries, not least politically.

Most of all, Paludan wants to ban Islam and deport all Muslims. Draw a line over religious freedom once and for all. Create a Denmark where it is first and foremost wonderful to be ethnic Danish. For several years he has been working intensely to get attention.

In 2019, he tried with the same stunt to influence the election in Denmark.

Ended up in jumbo seat

It was during his 17th demonstration in 2019 that it narrowed. During Easter. In the district Nørrebro in Copenhagen, known for its many minorities.

By 2018, he had held over 50 demonstrations.

The violent riots in Copenhagen on Easter 2019 led to Rasmus Paludan making headlines. That’s how he got enough signatures together to be able to run with the party Tight Course for the general election.

But he never became an elected politician in Denmark.

Paludan did not succeed in arousing people’s trust and ended up below the 2 per cent threshold. During the party leader’s interrogations, he appeared as a strange figure. With extreme attitudes that the other parties had to show that they distanced themselves from.

This year there are elections in Sweden.

Sweden has previously denied the racist Danish entry entry for fear that he will commit a crime. This is no longer possible because in 2020 Paludan became a Swedish citizen.

Now the well-known provocateur has started his «election tour“in Sweden.

In Sweden, Rasmus Paludan’s circus can have a completely different outcome than it did in Denmark.

To understand why, we must first look at what happened in 2019.

“Rasmus Paludan’s circus”

– I strongly dissociate myself from Rasmus Paludan’s circus, where it is only about creating discord and provoking.

Søren Pape Poulsen said this in 2019. He leads the Conservative People’s Party and was then Denmark’s Minister of Justice.

The opinion came during an open hearing on the protection of freedom of expression, following the introduction of a temporary ban on demonstrations.

The ban had put an end to the violent riots in Copenhagen on Easter 2019.

– But that does not mean that I accept that Danish society has environments where you do not play by the same rules as the rest of us, said Søren Pape Poulsen.

The Minister of Justice at the same time stated that most of Paludan’s demonstrations were carried out without any problems. That the police worked intensively to ensure both the right to speak, as well as peace and order.

According to DR, the protection of Rasmus Paludan had cost the Danish state 24 million kroner.

Feared new “Muhammad crisis”

The Danes had also closely followed the reaction abroad. There was a danger that Paludan’s behavior might provoke a new “Muhammad crisis.”

In 2006, Denmark experienced its biggest foreign policy crisis since the war.

Caricatures of the Prophet Muhammad published in the Danish press had triggered violent riots in Muslim countries. 150 people lost their lives.

Caricature battles led to broad agreement on freedom of expression in Denmark.

Several therefore questioned the need for a consultation in 2019.

Freedom of expression hearing backfired

It was the Danish People’s Party that had taken the initiative for the freedom of expression hearing in 2019.

The party’s fight for a tight immigration policy led to a landslide victory in 2015.

With 21.6 percent support, the largest party became on the bourgeois side. They secured a bourgeois coalition government in power in 2015, but failed to enter government themselves.

When the Danish People’s Party asked for the hearing in 2019, they were in free fall in the polls.

But the hearing practically backfired on them.

Tight Kurs ended with all the attention, while the Danish People’s Party was left with the difficult task of clearly distancing itself from Paludan’s extreme attitudes.

Parked the immigration debate

The consultation also gave the government a golden opportunity to refer to its own austerity measures in the field of immigration. To the law package «A Denmark without a parallel society – no ghettos in 2030».

The measures have attracted international attention, but in Denmark there is broad political agreement.

The Social Democrats, the Danish People’s Party and the bourgeois government had all backed the so-called «paradigm shift» in immigration policy in 2018.

Denmark’s focus was then changed from integration for repatriation.

The Danes knew that no matter what they themselves thought about immigration policy, it would be tight with both red and blue bloc.

The Danish People’s Party’s mission was played out, analysts explained.

They eventually ended up with 8.7 percent support in 2019. Not since the 1990s had support been so low for the party.

Since 2019, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has led a Social Democratic minority government in Denmark. The focus is now green transition.

Has let the Sweden Democrats into the heat

In Sweden, there is also a Social Democratic minority government, reached with Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.

It has been wearing skirts since day one.

The Social Democrats retained power after the 2018 election. But the government was only in place after a historically long tug of war of 131 days.

The Sweden Democrats had received 17.5 percent support in the election. But no party would cooperate with them in 2018 to secure a majority.

The party has a history many strongly dissociate themselves from, in words such as racism and Nazism.

This year, the Swedes have completely different ballot papers on hand.

The Sweden Democrats have been let into the heat of the Moderates and Christian Democrats.

The riots at Easter triggered by Rasmus Paludan may have given them traction.

The bourgeois parties have everything to gain from the immigration debate with a focus on law and order.

Sweden’s political battlefield

Sweden is the only one that has major problems with crime, segregation and exclusion.

How this is to be resolved depends on whether you are looking left or right on the political axis.

When the government was felt last year, it was due to proposals for changes in the Rent Act. In 2020, Prime Minister Löfven also faltered. Then it was due to proposals for changes in the law on termination protection (LAS).

So the question is whether debates on immigration and crime will determine who wins the election this year.

Health at the top of the agenda

In 2018, the election campaign was also characterized by integration, law and order. But when election day came, it turned out that this was not important to voters.

At the top of the Swedes’ agenda was health. Then school.

Refugee and immigration policy was down in 8th place, while questions about law and order ended up in 5th place.

Now the Social Democrats go to the polls under the slogan «regain control of welfare».

After the Swedes’ handling of the corona pandemic, it is not expected that health will be any less relevant this year.

The moderates, on the other hand, have little to gain from putting health in focus.

In addition to justice policy and immigration policy, they will “get Sweden in order” through a new energy policy.

Rasmus Paludan has announced that he wants to carry out more demonstrations. Keeping the debate about crime and immigrants warm can also help Jimmie Åkesson.

If the Sweden Democrats do well in this year’s election, they can ensure a change of government.

How the Danish People’s Party helped a bourgeois government to power in 2015, we can see the Sweden Democrats do the same in Sweden this year.

They can such DF did avoid even going into government. It will ensure them relocation, but little responsibility ahead of the 2026 election.

For Rasmus Paludan and Stram Kurs, on the other hand, it does not look bright.

Sweden already has the right-wing nationalist party Alternative for Sweden. It is their voters they must fight for.

Alternative for Sweden was created in 2018 after the Sweden Democrats broke with Sweden Democratic Youth.

Jimmie Åkesson thought that their youth party had become too extreme.

Alternative for Sweden ended in 2018 with a support of 0.3 percent.

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