“Half of the forces, the Russian reader observes the offensive, are already operating in the Donbass.” CIT analyst – about the situation in production
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces says that the Russian army continues offensive operations in the country’s production in order to establish full control in the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk industries. The President of Ukraine appoints the “battle for Donbass”, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry – “the second phase of the special operation.”
We talked to Kirill Mikhailov, an analyst at the Conflict Intelligence Team, about what is currently happening in the Donbas.
– What forces has Russia deployed to the Donbass? Will Ukraine be able to defend itself?
– There are different numbers. That is, the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that at present there are 87 battalion tactical groups along the entire line from Kherson to Kharkov, the primary source of foreigners is about 76. A certain number of volumes are still located on the territory of Russia, where replenishment of new equipment is taking place, after which they are managed by the echelon owner or remain as an operational reserve. That is, we can say that about half of the forces observed in Russia begin with the fact that they are already operating in the Donbass. It is also necessary to remember that personnel forces, the so-called “LDNR”, the first and second army corps, are also operating in the Donbass, and there are units of mobilized citizens from the occupied occupied territories.
– In stock, how to present it: 87 battalions of tactical groups – should this number include a person?
– If you take all the forces that Russia can theoretically use for this modification, and if you add airborne troops, the National Guard and so on, as well as these so-called separatist groups, then, basically, after the introduction of all troops, after the completion of Mariupol can bring up to 80-100 thousand fighters, these are only those who take a significant part in the hostilities. Of course, there are much more, but these are all rear units.
In total, from 80,000 to 100,000 people met with a group of 44 participants who ended up in Donbas at the time the separation began, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy. At the same time, we need to understand that in general, in military science, success requires at least a threefold superiority. It is obvious that such a superiority of Russian power is created only for some special purposes, but, ultimately, they need to launch an offensive against the emergence of a supply opportunity, on the railways and with the general goal of encircling the forces of the Ukrainian joint force and at approximately the administrative speed of Donetsk and Lugansk speeds.
– Volodymyr Zelensky caused this battle for Donbass. Decisive, meant in the course of the war. Have you come across such an assessment?
– In principle, we can say that yes, this is a very important battle, on which the fate of the best forces that Ukraine has, which are concentrated there before the war, depends. We probably understand that the Ukrainian side is considering a more logical option for a limited operation, the one that is taking place now, that it will be used from the very beginning. Therefore, most of the best forces are concentrated in the Donbass, where they have been successfully carrying out defense for a week now, and the second month will soon end. The question is what will happen after this appearance. That is, one way or another, one can already say, in the sense that, probably, everything, with the initial outcome of this selection of Russian troops, no longer arises in the form in which they are, without the announcement of a preliminary provision, without the announcement of mobilization, not to carry out offensive actions. That is, in Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and so on. With the army that Russia now has, it is no longer possible. That is, the Donbass is, of course, not the whole war. And, of course, even if Ukraine loses this battle, all the same, now the population of Ukraine is set to contact, and many are ready to continue to the bitter end, that is, until they disappear as the events that were occupied after February 24 arise.
– Offensive operation in Kharkov, you mean that the army will not go there in tanks, but shelling is being carried out. Am I understanding you correctly?
– Yes, I mean, if Russia wants to after that, even if Russia wins the battle for Donbass, after that, most likely, the Russian army will not have the strength to take Kharkov.
– How will this battle for Donbass look like? The night began with massive shelling, including in Donetsk itself, which Ukraine has not met since 2014. It will be a massive shelling later, but will Russian tanks go somewhere? Or will it look different somehow?
– In general, if they act within the framework of military science, which was formed in the Soviet army, then yes, it will be so. Yes, it will be massive shelling, after that tank strikes with experience in the global environment. This operation will include the scales, if not by the number of units, this operation will be reminiscent of the minor volumes that are found in the same places.
– World War II, do you mean the battlefield or the consequences of what we will see in those cities?
We are already seeing the consequences. And the same Mariupol, for example, passed, both world and civil wars are of great importance with the development of destruction than what we see now. That is, since then, since the Second World Artillery and aviation have become more destructive, risk guidance systems. And this means that they can cause significant damage, and even though the available resources are not comparable to those times on either side, all the same, these large-scale strikes across the steppes are something that, of course, there will be many remind them that they were in the same situation 80 years ago.