Is the world threatened by famine because of Russia’s war against Ukraine?
- Alexey Kalmykov
- The Air Force
Russia’s war against Ukraine brings not only ruin and death to Ukrainians and Russians, but also a severe food crisis around the world, as well as the spread of poverty.
The paradox is that a poor and Russia-friendly country will suffer disproportionately more than the West, which Putin opposed.
Before the war, Russia and Ukraine were major food sellers and held leading positions in world grain and oil markets. And Russia is also a leading seller of oil, petroleum products and fertilizers, as well as raw materials for them – natural gas.
Currently, these supplies have begun to fail, that is, Ukrainian grain ports blocked by the remnants of the Russian fleet. And it will be worse.
This year’s harvest is questionable, thanks to which instead of ancestral Ukrainian chernozems they are sown with mines and lined up Russian tanks, and farmers on tractors are constantly distracted from sowing and harvesting trophy equipment.
All this is very bad, especially for poor countries, where people spend most of their income on food. The world just started waste from the pores and last year’s drought, so food prices and before the war.
Now they have soared to levels not seen in all 32 years of observations – only in March by almost 13%, and for the year – from March 2021 to March 2022 – by a third.
And this is not the limit. The UN estimates that further growth could be at least 8% or 22%.
As a result of the war, fuel for agricultural machinery, transportation of goods by sea and land, loans, fertilizers and warehouses became more expensive. Neither humans nor animals lack grain, so prices for meat and other foods are rising.
Is there a threat of world hunger? No, not threatening.
“There will be enough food to feed the world’s population in the worst of events,” said experts from the Bruegel Research Center.
But it will be difficult and eat less.
However, famine threatens only the poorest countries and those in conflict, such as Somalia, Afghanistan or Yemen.
The least affected will be the rich West, which Putin has sent troops to fight Ukraine.
Which country has suffered the most than others
The North is particularly hard hit by poor countries in arid regions such as the Middle East and Africa. They import more than 90% of all food, and the closest suppliers to them are Russia and Ukraine.
“As commodity prices rise, the humanitarian crisis and political risks will increase. The latter, when prices were at such a high level, turned into the Arab Spring,” the researchers from Bruegel said.
10 years ago, protests and revolutions led to regime change in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, as well as the Russian-led war in Syria.
Recognize the rose as candidates for victims of Russian aggression against Ukraine, World Bank and EBRD experts call Turkey, Egypt, India, Thailand, Georgia, Armenia, South Africa, Lebanon and even Sri Lanka.
It is especially difficult for them now because they are very dependent on trade with Russia and Ukraine, earn money from tourism, do not want to have an open conflict with the West for violating sanctions against Russia and are experiencing an internal economic crisis that threatens political stability.
For example, Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat, and 20% of tourists came there before the war from Russia and Ukraine. As in Turkey, which also depends on 93% of oil imports and 99% – on gas imports.
Among Russia’s neighbors, not only all those who bought in their livelihoods and energy, where people come from and where people came to earn money, will suffer the most, but the influx of workers to Russia and remittances from their families has decreased.
First because of currency and transport restrictions, and then because of the slowdown in the Russian economy and sanctions, falling demand for labor, real incomes, the exchange rate and the degree of tolerance for foreigners in Russia.
Before the war, remittances from those who worked in Russia accounted for about a quarter of Tajikistan’s and Kyrgyzstan’s economies, and nearly a tenth of Uzbekistan’s and Armenia’s GDP.
It will be difficult for all of them.
However, famine threatens only the poorest countries in conflict, such as Yemen and Afghanistan.
In total, according to the UN, even before Russia’s attack on Ukraine, 44 million people in 38 countries were on the verge of starvation.
According to UN estimates, the war will increase this figure by at least another 8 million, and possibly more than 13 million – in a pessimistic scenario. Mostly about North Africa and the Middle East.
Guns instead of oil and grain
Russia is the largest exporter of wheat in the world, it produces about 33 million tons per year. Ukraine supplies 20 million tons of wheat on the world market.
Together, Russia and Ukraine account for a quarter of world exports, the share in the total municipality is much smaller, but their wealth is self-sufficient.
Currently, the UN predicts that due to the war, the world will not receive 5 million tons of Ukrainian wheat and 3.5 million tons of Russian. This is only 1% of world wheat consumption or even less if the reserves are almost 30 million tons.
Good harvests in Argentina and Brazil help to partially offset the costs, and Russia is not yet cutting but increasing exports.
However, amid rising prices, each of these countries may restrict exports to keep domestic inflation under control.
And it is much more expensive to transport grain from South America, which is why fuel for ships has become twice as expensive as last year.
Worse with other grains, and more so with sunflower oil. Here, supply disruptions have already led to such a rise in prices that millions of people in poor countries are abandoning traditional fried food and switching to street food cooked in old oil.
Russia and Ukraine account for 57% of the world’s sunflower oil supplies. The largest importers of this oil, in addition to the EU, were India, China, Iran and Turkey.
They are now switching to other types of vegetable oil, which is further fueling prices in world markets, which were already in dire shortfall due to declining palm oil production in Malaysia and last year’s drought in Canada, Brazil and Argentina.
“No peace, no prosperity”
According to preliminary UN estimates, Ukraine lost 20-30% of its acreage and exports due to the war.
But there are also gloomier estimates. In the worst case, exports fell to zero and all harvested crops remained at home, experts say Bruegel, at best – to be reduced by a third. But this is possible only if the war ends very quickly.
“The full effects will be manifested no earlier than autumn, when the harvest is harvested,” – predict the authors of the study.
Western countries will be the last to suffer.
“What can be prepared in advance can mitigate the blows and humanitarian consequences of food shortages. Large grain producers in the EU, the US and Australia can prepare. Because they are very efficient in agriculture and have enough free land to increase the area,” – researchers believe.
In addition to the direct losses from Russia’s invasion of tribal Ukraine, there are indirect consequences that could exacerbate the food crisis.
While the West of Ukraine, it is not to Afghanistan with Yemen. The number of those in need has increased by millions, while food has become less, food prices have risen, transportation has risen, and humanitarian aid services have remained unchanged or have remained the same.
If Ukraine used to become grain and oil for the UN food program, it exports almost nothing. Moreover, about a million Ukrainians are already receiving money from the UN for food, and the organization plans to support 3.3 million Ukrainians in a similar way in the near future.
At the same time, $ 19 billion was raised from pre-war targets for aid programs in 2022 to help 137 million people avoid starvation, and less than half of the UN program received from donors.
There are other problems. Rising food prices are driving up general inflation, forcing central banks to raise discount rates. As a result, people, countries and businesses take out less credit, and those who take out pay more for loans. In rich countries, this slows down economic development, and the poor are threatened with bankruptcy.
Many of them already have large debts due to the pandemic, and about 40 of the poorest countries are in debt crisis.
This with low rates would be stronger to increase the burden on future generations. And with high – and especially. Therefore it is necessary to be malnourished.
The war also undermined global growth in trade in goods, on which developing countries also depended. In October 2020, trade fell by 5%, but last year it lost and grew by 10%.
The World Trade Organization estimates that population growth is 5% this year, but now forecasts only 3% growth over the next two years.
And all because Putin started the largest war in Europe since World War II and declared a crusade against the West.
“History teaches us that when the world economy splits into hostile blocs and turns its back on poor countries, then there is neither peace nor prosperity,” said WTO President Ngozi Okonjo-Ivela.