Does the world face hunger because of the war in Russia with Ukraine?
- Alexey Kalmykov
- BBC
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Russia’s war in Ukraine will not only bring devastation and death to Ukrainians and Russians, but also promises that it’s all about the intricacies of the food crisis and poverty. Countries that are not rich and friendly to Russia suffer from the disproportion of the West, which Vladimir Putin has taken up arms against.
Russia and Ukraine dealt with trade issues before the war and dealt with the important issues of consumption and vegetable oil. Russia is also the largest seller of oil, petroleum products and fertilizers, as well as raw materials for them – raw gas.
Now, those supplies are being disrupted as food is scarce in Ukraine and Ukraine’s grain ports are themselves blocked by static Russian fleets. Further it will only get worse. This year’s harvest is especially good, because instead of sunflower seeds, the fertile Ukrainian black soil is littered with mines and wrecked agricultural tanks, and farmers on tractors constantly visit the sowing area towing captured equipment.
All this is very inopportune, especially for poor countries, where people spend a large part of the family budget on food. The world has barely recovered from the covid and past drought, so food prices were breaking records even without a war.
Now they have risen to unseen in all 32 years peaks are observed – only for March by almost 13%, and for the year by March – and occurs by a third. And this is not the limit: the UN believes that they will increase by at least 8%, and even by 22%.
Due to the war, road transportation of fuel for agricultural machinery, transportation of goods by sea and land, loans, stocks and storage. Grain is not enough for both people and livestock, so you have to look for prices for meat and other food products.
Is the planet in danger of starvation? No, it’s not a threat.
“Even in a bad scenario, there will be enough food in the world to feed the entire population of the planet,” the expert at the Brueghel Research Center is sure.
hard, there are less lungs, but hunger is dangerous only in the poorest and most conflicted countries, for example, in Somalia, Afghanistan or Yemen. And the West suffers least of all from this rich war, Vladimir Putin sent troops to Ukraine to fight predators.
Which countries are suffering the most
Countries are developing especially strongly in dry regions – in the Middle East and in the north. They import more than 90% of all food, and the closest suppliers for them are Russia and Ukraine.
“With rising prices for basic foodstuffs, the humanitarian crisis and political risks will increase.
A decade ago, a wave of protests and revolutions led to regime change in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, as well as a war in surgery involving Russia.
This time, Turkey, Egypt, India, Thailand, Georgia with Armenia, South Africa, Lebanon and even Sri Lanka have been raised as candidates for the victims of Russian aggression against Ukraine. The World Bank and the EBRD are called.
It is especially difficult now, as they are greatly aggravated by trade with Russia and Ukraine, they earn on tourism, they do not want an open conflict with the West for restrictions against Russia, and in addition to all this, they are experiencing an internal economic crisis that threatens political instability.
Thus, Egypt is a world traveler importer of wheat, and 20% of tourists came there from Russia and Ukraine. As in Turkey, which, moreover, is 93% dependent on oil imports and 99% on gas.
Among Russia’s neighbors outside of Ukraine, all countries that bought food and energy from themselves have suffered, but even more so – those from where people often come to work, as the flow of guest workers to Russia and transfers of their families from Russia will decrease. It happened because of the subsequent and sharp curtailment of the currency and the reason for the slowdown of the Russian economy due to the war and the sharp drop in demand for power consumption, declining incomes, the exchange rate and increasing the temperature of tolerance towards foreigners in Russia.
Income from production in Russia makes up about a quarter of the economy of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and almost a tenth of the GDP of Uzbekistan and Armenia.
It will be hard for everyone, but hunger is dangerous only for the poorest and most conflict-torn countries, like Afghanistan or Yemen.
In total, according to the UN, 44 million inhabitants of 38 countries in the world were on the verge of starvation even before infections in Russia in Ukraine. And every tenth inhabitant of the planet – more than 720 million people – was malnourished. The war increases this figure by another 8 million. under the moderate scenario of the UN and by more than 13 million – under the pessimistic one. Mostly in Asia, travel to the Middle East.
Guns instead of butter and a performer
Russia is the exporter of wheat in the world, it sells about 33 million tons per year. Ukraine supplies 20 million. They account for a quarter of export exports, but the share in total consumption is much lower, since most countries consume themselves.
The UN still predicts that because of the war the world is missing 5 million tons of Ukrainian wheat and 3.5 million tons of Russian. This is only 1% wheat (770 million tons per year), and even less if you take almost 300 million tons in the bins.
True, against the backdrop of rising prices, each of these countries can reduce exports to increase inflation at home. And importing from South America is much farther and much more expensive, because freight rates and prices for marine fuel have already doubled compared to last year.
Things are worse with other grains and, most importantly, with sunflower oil. Here, the disruptions have already driven up prices, and likely people in poor countries are ditching the feast of fried food at home and getting used to the new taste of street food cooked in old butter.
Russia and Ukraine consume 57% of sunflower oil supply. Its EU importing places were India, China, Iran and Turkey. Now they are switching to other types of vegetable oil, which leads to higher prices in the market, where there is such a terrible shortage due to the decline in palm oil production in Malaysia and past droughts in Canada, Brazil and Argentina.
The rise in prices for grain and oil on the world market has a stronger effect on poor countries also because the share of raw materials there is higher than the final price of the product on the shelf in the store, because other components of it are cheaper: labor, rent of retail space and other resources.
So when the price of grain rises, a bakery in Paris can afford not to change the price of a baguette, since its cost rises only slightly, but traders in the markets in Bukhara or Tegucigalpa will tend to charge more for a flatbread and tortilla. And if prices are regulated, as in many poor countries, there may be sacrifices of quality or reduction. In Côte d’Ivoire, bakers have already demanded that the authorities reduce the weight of a baguette to 150 from 200 grams.
“No Peace, No Prosperity”
According to the very first UN estimates, Ukraine is losing 20-30% of the cultivated area and part of its exports due to the war. Other forecasts are gloomier: exports will drop to zero, Brueghel believes, and at best it will be reduced by a third. But only if the war ends very soon.
“The full consequences will not appear until next autumn, when the harvest is harvested,” the authors of the study warn.
Western countries suffer misfortunes, they say.
“If prepared in advance, the impact and humanitarian consequences of food shortages can be softened. Large industries, including the EU, the US and Australia, are being prepared.
In addition to the direct impact of Russia’s invasion of fertile Ukraine, there are indirect problems of the war that only partially address the food crisis.
While Western Ukraine does not help him in Afghanistan with Yemen. The number of people in need of assistance has increased by the number of people, while food has become scarcer, prices have increased, transportation by road has increased, and humanitarian budgets have remained the same or registered.
If earlier Ukraine supplied grain and oil for the UN food program, now it not only does not export, but has itself become a recipient of assistance. Already 1 million Ukrainians have received rations and money for food, and UN supports 3.3 million Ukrainians soon.
However, of the $19 billion required before the war goals for 2022 to help 137 million people around the world avoid hunger, the UN food program received less than half from donors.
There are other problems as well. Rising food prices are driving big inflation, forcing central banks to raise rates. As a result, people and companies borrow less at high rates, which slows down development in rich countries and threatens bankruptcy in poor countries.
Many of them have gone into debt because of the pandemic, and about 40 of the poorest countries have gone into a debt crisis. Even with low rates, they were heavily loaded for future generations. Where can we go with growth – which means that the flowers live from hand to mouth.
The war also undermined the growth of foreign trade in goods, from which the developing countries develop more rapidly. In covid 2020, it was recorded by 5%, but in the last experiment, an increase in the content and growth of cells by 10% was observed. The World Trade Organization has estimated growth of almost 5% this year, but now predicts a modest 3% over the next two years.
This is because Putin has launched a large-scale war in Europe since World War II and has declared a crusade against the West.
“History teaches us that when the world economy is divided into opposing blocs and poor countries are turned back, then there is neither peace nor prosperity,” WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala outlined the near future.