If Putin parks the taps, Slovakia will survive the gas to …
Should we pay for rubles for gas?
– They didn’t. We should do everything we can to avoid it. However, it will depend on what currency Gazprom uses in its May invoices. This may not be the case under the applicable terms and conditions. However, I am afraid that this will not be an obstacle for the Russian side and it will start invoicing in rubles in May. Otherwise, this measure would make no sense. The decree of the Russian president, which provides for payments in rubles, is not entirely clear in this. However, I think that the doubts will be dispelled in a short time and it will be clear that they will pay in rubles. It will be, among other things, that the risk of exchange rate fluctuations between other currencies will be borne by European gas consumers, not Gazprom.
Poll
Do you think Putin will gas in Europe?
What will it be for us?
– If the ruble strengthens, more euros will be needed for the same amount of gas, so that gas will become more expensive for us, and as the ruble weakens, gas will become cheaper. However, the ruble is quite weak at the moment and it supports this measure considerably, it will start to strengthen and gas will become even more expensive for us. Few people are aware of this yet. Through gas, exchange rate movements between the ruble and the euro will be transferred to many other goods. This will greatly increase uncertainty. At the same time, markets are quite uncertain even without it.
If we didn’t pay in rubles and Putin decided on gas, how long would we last with our supplies?
– We have about a billion cubic meters in Slovak storage tanks. This is about a fifth of Slovak consumption. Consumption is lower in the spring and summer, so it might last until September. But then the tanks would be completely empty and we would be left without gas. This is the worst case scenario and I believe it will not happen. As soon as the flow of gas stopped, because the regulatory stages came into force. Every large customer knows how to reduce their gas consumption to the appropriate degree. Thanks to such savings, we would last longer.
Who would be disconnected from the gas first in this case?
– Industry. In the first place, they are regulated in which more than half of the gas consumption does not depend on the outside temperature, ie they are not used primarily for heating. However, when the gas shortage worsens, limiting heating curves are announced. This means that the energy consumption of both heating plants and gas boilers. The control stages and the limiting heating curves are declared by the gas dispatching.
What would be the consequences for Europe and Slovakia in particular?
– If the flow of Russian gas to Europe were completely stopped, there would be a real gas crisis. So far, gas is flowing, no one has to limit themselves yet. Restrictive measures would need to be taken across Europe immediately. That is, even where they have enough Norwegian gas and LNG. The Netherlands, Belgium and the fact that Germany could operate without restrictions, but also had to limit themselves considerably to save gas, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and the country, which are much more dependent on Russian supplies.
Could it be managed?
It would be a real test of European solidarity. I believe that Europe would survive in it. Thanks to this solidarity, gas could then flow through the Czech Republic and Austria to Slovakia. But it would not be enough. Extensive restrictions, which mainly affected industry, would continue to apply. The temperature in apartments and offices would probably also drop. However, there are calculations according to which Europe should make it so that where gas is needed, it would continue to be next winter.