Portugal can reach 2030 with competitive advantages
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Casa da Música will host, on Monday, an event that can be followed-online on the CGD or JN website
INITIATIVE
Welcome to 2030. On the roads, only autonomous vehicles circulate on the Lisbon-Braga axis. Right above, in the sky, drones of individuals and companies cross. The same scenario is repeated in metropolitan areas. All based on non-polluting technology. The dream of a passenger TGV between Lisbon and Madrid never got off the ground.
There are multiple examples of a disruptive future in relation to the current scenario. Economist João Félix Ribeiro coordinated the “Foresight Portugal 2030”, a study carried out for the Gulbenkian Foundation and which aims to contribute to changing the trajectory of Portugal. The document will be presented on Monday, the 28th, at Casa da Música, in Porto, in another Meeting Outside the Caixa, an initiative of the bank Caixa Geral de Depósitos (CGD). The event can be followed live on CGD’s website and Facebook, as well as on “jn.pt”.
Portugal has the possibility of investing in a disruptive way in innovation and in solutions that can provide competitive advantages compared to other nations. The starting point is not encouraging. “Even European, has lost the various enlargements and, the economic growth within the country surpassed in the European, has lost the various enlargements and, the economic growth within the recent borders of the EU, the same a divergence reads since 2009”, up no study.
Country options can change several levels. In terms of transport, over time, to transit, to temporary circuits. A backslidden national network that will allow for interconnections could be wasteful. “In 2040 or 2050, a large part of the population in the interior, and also by train of part of those who will live on the coast, will be composed of elderly people who will not want the compound, since it never takes them to the exact place of destination”, explains Felix Ribeiro.
The economic and social system may change. Currently (scenario 1, evolution with simple extension), the characterization of the financial system as remaining based on commercial banking with difficulty in structuring projects. If the evolution smooth (scenario 2), there will be an increasing role of Banco Português de Fomento. In the more disruptive so-called “scenario 3”, the capital market will be essential to finance companies.
It is not yet an economic and social plan, the study admits, there is no more disruptive scenario, the reinforcement of the capitalization component of Social Security and the generalization of the reversible mortgage regime, in addition to the creation of universal health insurance (SNS and private ).
SCENARIOS
1. Trust in continuity (dominant dynamics)
for example, Portugal to buy on a large scale in renewable energy (air and wind). In terms of transport, the focus is on creating a true network.
2. With ingenuity, in search of new space in Europe
Investment in the production of green resources through electrolysis to supply electricity. Reinforced network.
3. Hydrogen from natural gas without CO2 emissions.
Autonomous driving linked to 5G and the reduction of the road fleet by fuel cells.
DAY 28, MUSIC HOUSE
15:00 – Opening
Paulo Macedo, CEO of CGD
15:30 – Study Foresight Portugal 2030
José Félix Ribeiro, economist
15:50 – Evolution scenarios for Portugal
José Félix Ribeiro and Francisca Guedes de Oliveira, economists
16:20 – Growing with the evolution of Portugal
Francisco Cary, executive director of CGD,
João Fernando Rocha, director of Prio Energy,
Manuela Tavares de Sousa, Imperial CEO
17h00 – Presentation of the book “Pax English”
Face to face with Rodrigo Moita de Deus (author) and Clara Almeida Santos
5.40 pm – Pedro Abrunhosa talking with…
No beginning was…