Gas, bread and meat (in addition to fuel) at risk of becoming more expensive: the consequences of the Russian invasion in Portugal
An analysis of what can change and the average term in our country is not short term
Food, energy and soldiers. Portugal will suffer direct and authority this Thursday in Ukraine, after Russian troops entered the country, starting a military intervention in the separatist regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. This will have several consequences for the whole world. Analysts expect an increase in the prices of various foods, such as bread or meat, but also in electricity, particularly for those who use natural gas. There is a mobilization of British troops, with more than 1,500 soldiers already deployed, bordering which the country goes to Rome, a NATO member, rather than Ukraine.
Prices go up, but when?
The question is really this: when? That prices will increase is certain and it is known that prices will increase it is certain and known that the environment will not increase energy efficiency, namely in prices: Whoever uses the price of natural gas will feel that price of natural gas will feel that price is the natural price, Portugal does not set this is the price of natural gas ‘commodity’ [matéria-prima], which is indicated worldwide”, said João Pedro Matos Fernandes. This will be a direct consequence of the severing of economic relations between the European Union and Russia, which, according to official data, supplies 41.1% of the natural gas that reaches the European Union. Dependence also reaches the oil import: Vladimir Putin.
Look at the price of natural TTF, which opened higher this Thursday, reaching more than 100 euros per megawatt per hour on the Dutch market, where it rose by 29%. This raw material, which had not exceeded 100 euros since January 7, rose 52% this week.
In addition to the impact on households using it for industry and other services, rising natural gas prices are the cause of rising electricity prices in wholesale markets across Europe.
In oil, the barrel of Brent rose above 105 dollars (about 94 euros), values that have not been verified since 2014, curiously the year of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia.
This record value is noted by the secretary general of the Portuguese Association of Petroleum Companies (Apetro), who offers CNN Portugal an increase in fuel prices, which is expected, since the price of the refining raw material, crude oil, is to increase.
“There is an escalation in oil prices and the situation depends on the evolution of the situation”, says António Comprido, who recalls that it is not just the war situation, as he confirms that they are being applied, but that they also influence the process.
According to the official, the current situation of the war contributes to a “push” in the price of oil, which should remain high until the situation begins to stabilize. “It is natural that we will pay more for fuel, here and around the world”, he concludes.
In view of this, it guarantees that the supply will always be safeguarded, even in the face of a supply of the next supply from the National Ministry: and constant by the Government and other competent entities”, reads a note from the Government – which highlights that only 10% of the natural gas that arrives Portugal comes from Russia.
Questioned by CNN Portugal, EDP sent an answer for later.
Problems in the food sector
Logic tells us that war will also lead to a natural increase in processes, to begin to increase, which should react to a reaction in other sectors, causing an increase in opportunities for increase, which is a wheat, which will increase in a Photographed process of a campaign from 740 dollars to 850 dollars at 761 euros (from 660 to 761 euros largely due to tension in Ukraine.
To the Lusa agency, the member of the board of directors of ActivTrades CCTVM Mário Martins spoke – in statements made before the beginning of the war: “If there is a military conflict, it is likely that the rise will become an unprecedented increase, which will cause many problems of head for transformers, but mainly to users”.
It is these headaches that refer to the president of the Portuguese Association of Distribution Companies, Gonçalo Xavier, who to CNN Portugal talks about an impact that starts with wheat but expands to all products: “Cereals were already growing in the order of 10% of products and this has an impact on everything. For flour, but also for animal feed”, he refers, explaining that the effects range from the bread we buy at the bakery to the meat we buy at the butcher.
The official did not want to make a prediction of the quantification – not least because “this is very unpredictable” -, but said that it is expected that this will happen in a month, the necessary time that the consequences begin to notice.
Henrique Tomé, an analyst at brokerage XTB, highlights that “both Russia and Ukraine play an important role in terms of global cereal exports”, with “both countries representing around 30% of exports”, which demonstrates the dimension that war can have.
Increase corn from wheat, also corn can see prices, with Ukraine being the sixth largest in the world, accounting for 16% of crops in addition to grain producers.
Portugal envies 1,521 military personnel – for now
Higher National Defense Council makes some members this Thursday the first group of forces for the NATO force.
According to the former Secretary of State for Defense Ana Santos Pinto, this is a highlight that should have been foreseen and that is part of the commitments that Portugal has when being part of NATO. It does not rule out sending more troops, it says that this should only happen if the situation becomes more dangerous, especially with a member still of Russian troops to NATO countries such as Poland, Romania or the Baltic countries.
“We have a commitment to NATO, Portugal is part of the reaction force that can be streamlined and that must be ready to be used when necessary”, as is the case, he emphasizes.
The also researcher at the National Defense Institute says that, as a group, the sending of more contingents to NATO will have to be by NATO its member states, and the National Defense Institute says that, if it happens in groups, the sending of more contingents to NATO as forces to be deployed.
In practice, says Ana Santos Pinto, Portugal may, in this situation, not send anyone, but tradition says that “Portugal makes available what it has, as it has always done”. Moreover, our contribution “for many years” to the air defense of the Baltic countries, through the reinforced country of the F-16 aircraft, something that has also been done in Romania.
“This for the Portuguese Armed Forces” does not explain, it does not explain that it is not this new apron that is prepared for the prediction “it does not explain that it is not this new apron that is in context”.
According to one researcher, this deployment of Portuguese troops, as well as the highlighting of soldiers from other countries, aims to deter Russian troops, highlighting a presence that goes beyond the ground and that is also verified in the air and at sea.
A possible participation of soldiers, Santos Pinto says that this will happen if Russia overtakes as Ukrainians to one of the countries that are only active in NATO, not least because the Atlantic Alliance troops do not have Portuguese military forces for NATO, until Ukraine is active. . , as it is not a member state of the organization.
There is yet another threat, which Portugal is already guarding against, which is the possibility of informational events coming from the east.