Russia and Ukraine: answer options
Vladimir Putin’s goal is to control all of Ukraine. Such an opinion in an interview with Voice of America contains the director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Eugene Rumer. It was noted that actions and statements from Moscow, in particular about the borders of the “DNR” and “LNR”, were taken to the fact that Russia is ready to follow the forceful path of development of events:
“We are talking not only about the recognition of this small space, but about the entire territory of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, – Rumer, – this suggests that further development of entry begins, already through a wave of contact between the so-called separatists, now military personnel and the Ukrainian army. Further – who knows how it will go? I think that the goal of Mr. Putin is not kept from the two republics, but from Kyiv and all of Ukraine.”
According to Yevgeny Rumer, the decision to take a decisive strike against Russia, however, does not require the Kremlin’s decisiveness from aggressive steps: “The Russian government has been preparing Russia for sanctions against aggressive actions since 2014. If you pay attention to the National Security Strategy, which was signed by President Putin last year, then it is completely about preparing the country to survive under the regime of protection and common territory from the West. I think they will be elected. They already exist, and there will be more. I think they will be tough. But this is not a deterrent for Mr. Putin and his entourage. It is only a question of fulfilling these requirements, but not of requiring compliance.”
Evgeny Rumer also doubts that domestic political factors and opposition to war on this factor can significantly influence the decisions made in the Kremlin:
“All the opposition that could be in Russia is practically suppressed. Any political activity not in support, not in support of the Kremlin has become criminalized. he says. – It is very difficult to expect that some kind of organized movement will arise, which will be observed on the course for the future and, in fact, the course is already a continuation of the war that began. Here they only say that if the war with Ukraine really drags on, that it will not be some kind of blitzkrieg, that if the Ukrainian army and the Ukrainian population really have strong resistance, then we can say that some kind of resistance has arisen. it is public non-food items and it can be used to influence the Kremlin. But for now, it seems to me that this is a rather distant prospect.
Head of the Carnegie Moscow Center Dmitry Trenin noted that “Putin has stated earlier and now that he considers the Kyiv regime illegitimate, which came to power as a result of a coup and is guilty of emergency situations. Moreover, he said he would prosecute and punish those who claim responsibility for some of the most brutal crimes in 2014. This is a very tough statement. And there was a moment when many, including myself, began to think that he, in fact, was going to declare war on Ukraine. We were surprised and relieved when at the end he said that the republic was going to be a republic, because at the peak that he really reached in the speech speech, it was too difficult to just understand it.
According to Trenin, Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of the “DPR” and “LPR” cannot be called unexpected: “Many seriously expect and still expect that he will increase a large-scale offensive in order to go to Kyiv, bomb a city with a population of 2.8 million innocent inhabitants “. and go all the way, maybe, if not to Lvov, but definitely cross the Dnieper. So what he did is not surprising. Russia has been supporting this region for eight years now. In Russia there are people inside, maybe not in the form of regular troops, but at least instructors. These are volunteers and other people helping the infection fighters of the Ukrainian army.”
Recognition of the independence of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR” is a serious setback and the actual end of the Minsk process. An employee of the RIAC Council on Relations said this in an interview with Voice of America. Charles Kupchan (Charles Kupchan, Council on Foreign Relations).
“The Minsk agreements were a hope for a way out, a road map for a settlement, and they are currently removed from the protocols – Charles Kupchan. – Russia opens troops to the separatist regions in the Donbass. And this may be a signal that we will see an escalation of hostilities. At the same time, the real state of affairs has decreased to a lesser extent. Russia already controlled these two territories through its leftovers, Russian troops are already in these territories – just not openly.
So the first question is: what’s next? What does this mean for the territory of Ukraine? I wouldn’t say that diplomacy has failed. I think it’s still important to leave newsletters. Putin may announce that he has protected the Russian-speaking population of the two regions. But I don’t think he will say that, because in his speech he spoke about Ukraine as a whole, and not about the part of the territory that Russia visited in the Donbass.”