Korona, Smitte | FHI believes that the peak in sickness absence has been reached in the next few weeks
There were 55,700 new people who reported sick last week, warns Nav. The number is also stable for coronary patients, which is about half.
– The fact that they see that the number of people on sick leave does not continue to increase is very interesting and in line with the development in the infection numbers we see nationally, says director of infection control at the National Institute of Public Health, Frode Forland, to NTB.
– We can not say with certainty that this has reversed, but it is an indication that we can read something from the sick leave statistics that correspond with the infection figures, says Forland.
He calls it the relatively positive number from Nav.
– But it is important to say that it is still a very demanding situation in many areas. It’s well the top is here, and in many places it’s difficult to get it to go around, says the FHI top.
The number of new people with sickness absence certified by a doctor last week was 300 fewer than the week before, figures from Nav. Of these, 28,900 were reported sick for coronary-related diagnoses, which is the same number as the week before.
Think the top is now
– The growth in the number of new sick leavers has clearly stopped, and the number of new sick leavers has been stable over the past three weeks. The easing of infection control measures has so far not resulted in more employees on sick leave, says head of statistics at Nav, Ulf Andersen.
There are 27,800 more people on sick leave than in the same week last year. Most people on sick leave are in the health and social services, with 15,100 people.
Forland in FHI points out that there is still a sky-high sickness absence in several places.
– The state administrators have regularly reported high sickness absence, and that in some municipalities it is up to 20 percent. The top is definitely there, and the fact that half of all those on sick leave are on sick leave due to corona also shows that, says Forland.
Top of next week
– If the peak is reached, how long will it last?
– The peak is probably now this week and the weeks to come. Since it is not a downward infection trend in the whole country, it is a bit uncertain, says Forland.
The infection trend shows that in Oslo and Viken it has stabilized and is now a downward trend, while all other counties have an increasing infection trend. The figures are not directly comparable due to changes in the test regime.
– It is a trend that is quite similar to that in Denmark. Where they have previously had the most infection is in Copenhagen, which now has the least infection. We see that the counties in Norway that have had the least infection now reach the same level as the others, says Forland.
Evenly distributed infection
FHI has estimated that the peak of infection will come at the end of February and the beginning of March. The number of corona inmates can thus reach a peak around to weeks after that, but for sickness absence, the peak will probably harmonize more with when the peak of infection is.
– The infection trend is now gathering at a level around 4-5,000 registered infected per 100,000 inhabitants in the last few weeks in most counties in the country, says Forland.
He points out that there is a downward trend in the youngest age groups. This can be positive for sickness absence as infection in these age groups can lead to double absence: First, parents must be at home with sick children, then even when they have been infected by the children.