Russia’s Nordic neighbors are raising military preparedness amid Ukraine’s tensions
- Russia’s Nordic neighbors have announced increased military preparedness in recent weeks.
- Finland, Sweden and Denmark have made these changes in response to current tensions over Ukraine.
- But each of these countries also has long-standing concerns about Russia’s activity in its region.
NATO members have rallied support for Ukraine as Russia has increased military pressure on Kiev in recent months, supplying weapons and equipment to Ukraine and strengthening its own presence in neighboring countries.
Nordic countries, including non-NATO members Sweden and Finland, have also increased their military readiness in recent weeks, in response to Russia’s build-up around Ukraine but also to long-standing concerns about Russian activity in their region.
In mid-January, Sweden announced an increase in its military readiness, which included deploying troops to Gotland Island in the middle of the Baltic Sea, a measure that was partly prompted by Russian naval movements in the vicinity.
“It does not have to mean an increased threat, but we always want to adapt to the current situation,” said Sweden’s military operations chief about the increase in preparedness.
At the end of January, Finland announced a similar move, with an official proverb preparedness had “improved because the situation in nearby areas has become more unstable.” The official said that even though Finland was not facing any threat, it was necessary to monitor the region more closely in the light of Russia’s actions.
Finland and Sweden’s neighbors, NATO members Norway and Denmark, have taken similar measures, and Denmark’s military sa this month that it would increase its preparedness – including increased monitoring of Danish waters and sending fighter jets to the island of Bornholm – “due to the unacceptable Russian military pressure on Ukraine.”
The measures were “precautionary measures”, Denmark’s Chief of Defense sa. “We are increasing our military options to be able to react more quickly, if the situation so requires.”
Denmark’s and Norway’s move is part of NATO’s insurance effort and signals to “Russia not to seek any escalation maneuvers with NATO”, says Mathieu Boulegue, researcher for Russia and Eurasia at the British think tank Chatham House.
Even though they are not members of NATO, Sweden and Finland work closely with the alliance, and their move is also messages to Moscow to avoid escalation through measures such as dangerous maneuvers or military exercises, Boulegue told Insider.
“Overall, I think the Nordic countries are less concerned about the risks of conflicts with Russia than about avoiding horizontal escalation” through accidents or tactical mistakes – a message that was particularly relevant ahead of a major NATO exercise to be held in Norway in Marchin Boulegue.
“An increased threat”
For Sweden and Finland, Moscow’s pressure on Ukraine is only its latest alarming measure. Both have observed with concern Russian military activity in the Baltic Sea and in the Arctic. This is an important factor behind their latest move.
Finland’s increase in preparedness was not a response to a specific event but to what its military “had observed during the previous year, especially in the autumn”, says Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a leading researcher at the Finnish International Institute.
Based on the Finnish officials’ decision that they needed to show increased preparedness in early 2022, Salonius-Pasternak told Insider and said that the announcement was about Russia even though it was not aimed at Russia and was intended to remind “potential partners who may be wondering if Finland does nothing, that yes, we are awake and yes, we are very capable. “
Like NATO, Finland and Sweden were concerned about Russia’s attacks on Georgia in 2008 and on Ukraine in 2014, which showed that Russia was willing to use the military it had spent the previous decade building, said Sweden’s ambassador to the United States, Karin Olofsdotter, in a interview in March 2021.
“We really feel that Russia is an increased threat to the European security order,” Olofsdotter said at the time, referring to Russia’s increased military exercises and activity in the Baltic Sea. “We feel the presence very closely, and this is something we have seen over time.”
Since then, Sweden and Finland have invested more in their military. Finland recently bought 64 US-made F-35 fighter jets, and it is acquiring new ones warships and Equipment for ground troops.
Sweden has once again emphasized civil defense and is training more military conscripts. It is also about acquiring and setting up new weapons, such as the air defense system that was sent out on Gotland in 2019. “Since we have seen the situation in our vicinity deteriorate, this is the way to meet the threats we see,” Olofsdotter said last year.
Like Gotland and Denmark’s Bornholm, Finland’s Åland is on important Baltic Sea roads, which makes them likely targets in a conflict.
Åland’s autonomous and demilitarized status means that the Finnish military cannot operate there, but its latest exercises have included activities that are “directly transferable to a situation” where troops have to move there “very quickly”, Salonius-Pasternak said.
Ukraine’s pursuit of NATO membership is a driving factor behind current tensions with Russia, which has also renewed Sweden’s and Finland’s own years-long debates on membership.
Neither country has plans to join, but both reject Moscow’s attempts to dictate who could. Finnish leaders fear that a restriction on Ukraine’s right to apply for membership could reduce their “room for maneuver in security policy”, says Sinikukka Saari, also a leading researcher at the Finnish International Institute.
Although recent tensions have not affected Finland’s NATO policy or led more Finns to support membership, it has had an impact.
“The group of people who used to say ‘no’, part of it has clearly shifted to ‘I do not know’, says Salonius-Pasternak.” People say “OK, I may have had a strong opinion of” No “, but now “I’m watching what’s happening to Ukraine. I’m listening. I’m thinking. I’m paying attention to this.”