The Canadians have not exactly been tested yet with two matches coming against China in preliminary play. Sweden is facing a tougher challenge, but the result can go both ways. We lean towards Over in our betting choices with shaky play in both networks.
Canada beat China on Tuesday morning and must now get ready for another elimination match against a much better opponent in Sweden less than 24 hours later. The books have that this is an almost-pick them with a total sitting of 5.5.
Can Canadians continue to roll despite a cupcake schedule? Can the Swedes erase the memory of their epic three-goal collapse against Finland in the preliminary round? Find out in our choices and predictions for Canada vs Sweden.
Canada vs Sweden odds
|+1.5 (-286)||Pucklina||-1.5 (+225)|
|Over 5.5 (+120)||Total||Below 5.5 (-143)|
Odds with permission from bet365 on February 15, 2022.
Sweden opened as small -115 ML favorites with a total of 5.5 leaning towards Under. Canada has been the heavy favorite for all four of its matches so far in the tournament.
Canada vs Sweden predictions
Predictions made on 15/2/2022 at 12:05 ET.
Click on each prediction to go to the full analysis.
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Canada vs Sweden game information
• Place: Beijing National Indoor Stadium, Beijing, CHN
• Date: Wednesday, February 16, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:30 ET
• TV: CBC
Canada vs Sweden elections and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and the total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the game we like most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
The Canadians had the advantage of facing the Chinese in their first elimination match. The game was anything but a set-up in the beginning with China hanging tight in the first period. The Canadians probably gave head coach Claude Julien a heart attack with his lack of defensive responsibility.
Canada have not played up to Julien’s defensive standards through four matches and even if they beat China twice with a total score of 12-2, the inequalities that Canada allowed would probably have been a death sentence against a quality opponent. Goalkeeper Matt Tomkins saved his team but we are not convinced that the result will be the same compared to a much better Swedish team.
When they entered the tournament, the Swedes were the 4th betting favorite to win gold at +600, which was a place after the Canadians at +450. By playing a decent group that presented Finland, Slovakia and Latvia, the Swedes are prepared for a close match while it seems that Canada’s game schedule has not done them any favors because the US game feels like an eternity ago.
Sweden entered its third group game against Finland as +135 dogs on the money line. In what was probably the most competitive match so far in the tournament, Sweden scored three straight power-play goals in the second period, which was helped by a five-minute major and then a 5-on-3. The Swedes were to give back everything in the third period in what could easily be described as a collapse, but they hung tight against a quality opponent in Finland.
Despite the loss, Sweden enters this match as a small favorite and has played more quality hockey than the Canucks. Sweden has only allowed one goal with equal strength so far and is facing a Canadian attack without a real identity and a lack of speed that has meant that its counter-play does not exist. Canada scored seven goals against China on Tuesday morning, but only a couple were quality while four came on powerplay and another on a penalty kick.
Another angle that makes us shy about Canada is in the net. Tomkins has played the last two games against China and it would be tough for Julian to go to Eddie Pasquale after he last played six days ago against the USA and took the loss 4-2. Tomkins made some great saves for Canada against the Chinese but he is still without a doubt the third best goalkeeper on this playlist. He currently plays in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) and enjoys a quality season, but there is a big difference between China and Sweden.
Canada’s lack of finish and speed combined with defensive mistakes and lack of high quality offensive chances has not filled us with confidence. The books have adjusted their feel before the tournament in Canada and this line is very accurate. We hoped to get the Swedes as dogs, but it’s a no-go here. This game will be tight and we do not see a big advantage on any side at this price. We are leaning towards Sweden after seeing the Canadians make too many mistakes against an inferior opponent in China in two straight games and believe that this is Canada’s biggest disadvantage.
Canada beat Sweden 3-1 in the Channel One Cup in December but both teams finished with identical 1-0-2 records. Wednesday’s match will feature many of the same players from that match and even that match was closed as an almost choice.
Prediction: Sweden ML (-115)
Covers analysis of hockey games
Over / Under analysis
The Canadians have 2-2 O / U through four matches while Sweden has flirted with Over in all three matches but has only 1-2 O / U on their way into Wednesday’s elimination match. Sweden has relied heavily on its powerplay to do the heavy work while the Canadians have also been successful with the maneuver. Sweden’s PK has not been a strength as it has given four goals in its last three matches and with the referees seeming to call everything and the potential for five minutes majors on all dangerous hits, to rely on PP goals for this over can not be so terrible . idea.
Sweden has taken 14 minor penalties through three matches while Canada took 10 plus a five-minute major over its two matches against the Chinese. Canada has done a decent job of killing penalties but three of its four matches were against Germany and China.
With the total of 5.5 and paying quite +120 for Over, a 3-1 game can easily end 5-1 with elimination on the line. Sweden has seen at least five goals scored in each of its three matches, while Canada’s only competitive match against the USA saw over 5.5 hits early in the third period in a 4-2 loss.
Swedish goalkeeper Magnus Hellberg owns 2.46 GAA and dropped all four goals to Finland in his last start in just 27 shots. He will probably oppose Tomkins, who has stopped 53 of 55 shots but all of these came from the Chinese. Many of the Swedish skaters have seen Tomkins in the SHL.
The Canadians have not been able to play what system coach Juien wants and we doubt that two matches against China have helped them solve their self-inflicted problems. Empty goals are a real factor in elimination games and a 4-2 finish is still in the cards even if both sides play close. Add the penalty issues and the price, and we will not withdraw for this Over 5.5.
Prediction: Over 5.5 (+120)
Canada has made lots of mistakes through four matches but the Swedes have not been perfect either. Punishment has been a problem on both sides while each nation’s power play has had no problem tickling yarn.
Hellberg looked shaky in his latest start against Finland while Tomkins has only seen the Chinese so far in the tournament and many Swedish skaters have seen him before in the SHL. Canada should be able to get two or three and if the Chinese can do a couple against Canada, the Swedes should get plenty of opportunities as well.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+120)
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