A new survey indicates that a right-wing government may come to power after Sweden’s upcoming elections in September. But a fragmented political map makes predictions difficult.

The survey, which was commissioned and published on 11 February by the Social Democratic newspaper Aftonbladet, shows that the Social Democrats continue to be the country’s largest party with 28.2% support.

However, that may not be enough to hold on to the post of Prime Minister. Sweden currently has a minority government led by the country’s first female Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.

All three parties on the right have increased their popularity to give them 50% support in parliament with 349 seats and potentially a majority of one seat. For the liberal-conservative Moderates, the survey shows them at 22% (+0.2), with the Christian Democrats at 5.6% (+0.2) support. The biggest gain has been the nationalist and right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, who have increased by 1.4%, giving the party 19.2%.

If elections were held now, the new Prime Minister would probably be the Moderates’ chairman Ulf Kristersson, a strong advocate for Sweden’s NATO membership. The Sweden Democrats, founded in 1988, would have a chance to enter the government for the first time.

But six months before the election, predictions for the next government are a qualified guess. The key to the exit may be the Center Party. With 7.9% support, they have kept their political options open to the right and left. The new poll does not bode well for the Liberals and the Green Party as none of the parties would cross the minimum limit of 4% support to enter parliament.

(Pekka Vänttinen | EURACTIV.com)