The economy is expected to grow 5.1% this year, one percentage point of the estimated performance for the eurozone, according to the averages announced by Euler above Portugal, shareholder of Cosec — Companhia de Seguros de Créditos.
“The Portuguese economy has only more than other eurozone economies, but due to the strong contraction that has changed. 19”, explains Ana Boata, ‘Global Head of Macroeconomic and Sector Research’ at Euler Hermes, quoted in a statement.
An expert also highlights the dependence of the Portuguese economy on tourism “should keep the levels of exports of goods and services still below those recorded pre-pandemic”.
From a global perspective, Euler Hermes should continue to estimate that “economic growth should grow robustly”: The Eurozone’s domestic product (GDP) should grow 4.1%, or the US 3.9% and China should register a growth of 5.2%.
However, agreement between adjusted economies and emerging economies will increase”, highlighting, specifying that “the combined economies to add the continuity of growth to be adjusted by 2.22 and +1.6 percentage points in 2), while the markets since the first time23 will be set by the global financial crisis”.
Economic estimates, for terms, for Euler, point to trade being forecast at 5.4% by 2023, but in the short term as they are of “some instability, due to problems between supply and demand”.
“Possible outbreaks of the Ómicron variant will impact distribution chains and contribute to maintaining high pressure on the four prices”, maintain the analysts, preventing that, “during the next two to two, sectors with low or no possibilities of teleworking will be more useful”.
At the same time, they say, “inflation will be driven by disruptions in the supply chains caused, in particular, by the deficits in production in China, which may represent a third of the global value of the rise in prices — between 1.5 and 2 percentage points in the euro, in the US and the UK”.
Economists at the credit insurance company believe that the normalization of trade at a global level “should take place in the second half of the year”.
This focus normalized by factors: a normal reduction, to normal levels, of consumer durables spending will be increased with a change in purchasing habits in products with goods; a mark of purchases of supplies of intermediate goods (manufactured goods, or used, intermediates in the production of final products of intermediate goods); and the reduction of delivery times for goods, as shipping capacity increases.