Will February bring a radical change in the weather for Portugal?
We reached the final stretch of January with a very worrying situation (severe meteorological drought), since the persistence of the anticyclonic blockade is preventing the arrival of rain, very necessary and necessary, a lot in recent weeks have made sporadic and residual additions.
Except for the occasional showers, sometimes with thunderstorms, which appeared in the Azores and Madeira, and the occasional downpour in the south of mainland Portugal, the environment that dominated was stable, cold, dry and sunny thanks to the anticyclone.
February, month of great extremes and abrupt changes in weather
In the month of February the weather can change quickly, in a matter of minutes. Cold spells, summer temperatures of up to 25 ºC, depressions, depressions, isolated at altitude (“CutOff”), cold air intakes, anticlonic stability… in short; the atmosphere is often immensely dynamic, and furthermore you can already see clearly how the day is gaining minutes in relation to the night, so the temperatures will no longer be as low as in January.
According to the normal climatology of 1971-2000, February, despite being very differentiating regionally (North much rainier than Center, and above all than the South), is one of the rainiest months in our country, appearing in 4th place 12 months of the year, accumulating, on the mainland, an average of 117.2mm every year. For example, in Alto Minho, Cávado, Ave and the Porto Metropolitan Area, the average for February is higher than the average for the rest of the country, oscillating between 220 and the 280 mm of rainfall. This contrasts immensely with the drier and arid regions, such as Baixo Alentejo (58.2 mm) and Algarve (70 mm).
A more stable and warmer than usual February?
Taking into account the ECMWF estimates, Since Meteored-tempo.pt we are not optimistic for the next few weeks. we will likely remain under the influence of the highs for much of our time. and move from an anticyclonic blockade situation to a high O+ situation (press the circular in latitude) However, It can be ruled out that February, as on other occasions, brings us sudden changes in the weather in the form of pockets of cold air or that some frontal disturbances graze the North of the country (Minho, Douro Litoral, etc) thanks to a greater mobility of the centers of action.
With this scenario, the maps highlighted as will register values more than the whole country in the normal in almost the whole month, especially if we start to be hit by more temperate air masses coming from the Atlantic. Thermal records can vary between 1 °C to 3 °C above average over the entire continental area and Madeira.. The only exceptions will be Nordeste Transmontano, which will register normal values, normal values and values below the reference average.
be abnormally hot throughout the country, except occasionally in the Northeast region of Trás-os-Montes (normal thermal values) and in the Archipela of the Azores.
On the other hand, in the interior valleys of Trás-os-Montes, and higher by vain mists, as temperatures hover around normal values. For now, if you anticipate the cold wave, no jet situation can present that the current more ripples in our latitudes.
Less rain than average, but the jet stream will still have a say
We are also not very optimistic here at Meteored regarding the rain, and even the snow (an unusual phenomenon in mainland Portugal) for the entire month. February could be much drier than normal in the North and Center regions. This does not mean that it will not even snow in the highest points of the highlands, but that there will be a tendency for it to occur in relation to the usual. There should also be a less humid panorama than normal from Leiria to the south (up to the Algarve), although on a less severe scale compared to other regions.
In the Azores it seems that the scenario will be similar to the Continent. The single most normalized scenario could be Madeira, which should record levels of protection within the suit in terms of weather.. This is not good news, because if this prediction really won’t come true, the already complicated problem of drought will continue to worsen significantly from north to south of mainland Portugal, especially in Alentejo, Algarve and northern interior. Still, there’s hope that February is known for its radical weather changes that can bring us the much-desired rain.