Who will come out on top in the crazy 2022 title race? The FCZ, Basel or YB?
Alain Kunz, Stefan Kreis, Matthias Dubach
That speaks for the FCZ
In contrast to the rivals Basel and YB, Zurich does not record a single departure from the core team. All regulars and all players from the second row have stayed – also at the behest of the president. Because FCZ boss Ancillo Canepa really wanted to keep the team together, which grew together to become the Super League leader in autumn. The mechanisms are well established and could now be refined in the winter break in the training camp. In the second half of the season, FCZ will attack their opponents with even more speed. The squad has also been fine-tuned: central defender Karol Mets has boosted the thin manpower in defense. And in Zurich, unlike FCB and YB, there is no great danger of being in ruins at the end of the season. Coach Breitenreiter: “No matter what comes next, this season will be better than the last of FCZ.”
That speaks against the FCZ
The pre-round data of the expected points compared to the points achieved are a clear warning. On average, Zurich scored 0.87 more points than could be expected based on this statistical model. In other words: Zurich actually scored too many points. In fact, points or even victories were often scored in injury time. If the leader doesn’t show such a good yield and normal competition luck again, things will get tight in the title fight. It is also completely open how the team would react to a winless phase, because even Breitenreiter says: “It will happen that we lose a game. Or even two.” It wouldn’t be a problem for the coach as long as the performance was right. But for a race against a possibly unleashed YB it would be poison. In addition, it is completely open in what form clipper Assan Ceesay will return from the Africa Cup.
That speaks for the FCB
The defensive, as is well known, wins championships. And no team has conceded fewer goals than FC Basel. This is primarily due to the fact that in Heinz Lindner you have a goalie who makes almost no mistakes, is excellent on the line and has already saved FCB umpteen points with his sensational saves. With Eray Cömert, Basel lose a national defender to Valencia, but boss David Degen has announced reinforcements in the center of defence. With Andy Pelmard, Nasser Djiga and Albian Hajdari you have three central defenders in the squad who would probably be in the starting XI for almost any other super league team. The Bebbi are also well occupied on the wings, with left-back Noah Katterbach, a German U21 international from Cologne.
That speaks against FCB
The offensive. In the preliminary round, it was worse than that of the direct champion competitors from Zurich and Bern. And with Arthur Cabral and Edon Zhegrova, FC Basel also loses around seventy percent (!) of its scorer points. It is uncertain whether the new ones will take off immediately, the offensive is a problem. Against FC Luzern, Darian Males, a player in the center of the attack, who is actually at home behind the top, should start. While the Young Boys have four center forwards in Nsame, Siebatcheu, Kanga and Monteiro, Basel are looking for two players to compensate for Cabral’s departure. If that doesn’t work, it will be difficult with the championship title.
That speaks for YB
You can see it in the talks with the Bernese: the self-image of being able to win this title despite being behind is huge. That quickly has Bavarian proportions. Especially since the double burden with the Champions League is eliminated. Despite the (not particularly relevant) departures of Hefti and Aebischer, YB will be the best team in the second half of the season, no question. The offensive power is too great for that, the (new) goalie Racioppi too strong, defensive chief Lustenberger too clever, the central midfield too robust around decade talent Rieder, the storm with the four strikers, the wing tongs Fassnacht and Ngamaleu and with whirlwind Elia too powerful and the squad too wide. Jean-Pierre Nsame won’t be back to 100 percent until March. Isn’t that a disadvantage? No! Because only then is it about the sausage!
That speaks against YB
Actually, YB only has one problem: And that’s the eight points on FC Zurich. Even if Zurich should lose the two direct duels, they still have it in their own hands to become champions. In the preliminary round you saw what happens when a team has bad luck with injuries and the double burden of the media hype about the Champions League eats up a lot of energy. Especially mentally. Is it still enough? mmm And then there is the perfect preparation – a danger! Five friendlies, all clearly won. Scored 24 goals. The machinery runs and rolls seemingly unstoppable. Is it going too well fast? So that the problem-free becomes dangerous? Coach David Wagner put it this way: “I’d rather play a good preparation than a less good one. We played a good preparation. But it remains a preparation.” And yet, even in a heaven full of violins, there can be dissonance.
Credit Suisse Super League
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