Russia sharply offers oil supplies to the EU after gas | 01/27/22
Russia consumes stocks following gas exports, which account for 40% in the first weeks of 2022.
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In August, 6.5 million tons of “black gold” will be sent from the European ports of Transneft to the west, Interfax reports with reference to the shipment schedule.
Marine export volumes will decrease by 14%, almost or 1 million tons, relative to January, despite the expected increase in production (+100 thousand barrels per day under OPEC+).
In the port of Ust-Luga, complications are planned by 21%, up to 1.9 million tons, of which 1.6 million tons are oil of Russian companies (-16%).
Export from Primorsk, according to the schedule, will decrease by 19%, to 3 million tons.
The reduction in oil flows from ports will hit mainly Western European countries, which indicate that the market for Russian oilmen: Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and the Baltics consume every third barrel exported for export.
At the same time, exports to the south of Europe will even grow slightly: tankers should take 1.6 million tons (+ 13%) out of Novorossiysk.
However, the export of significant oil companies from Novorossiysk is only 0.82 million tons (+21%). And its growth – by 0.14 million tons – does not compensate for the failure in the Baltic ports, which is almost 1 million tons.
The oil market is already in deficit (demand for profit), except for being nervous about the higher geopolitical risk of cases from Russia, a $1.2/bbl disaster.
In the Ural environment, the price reached $91.25 in northwest Europe and $92.38 in the Mediterranean, according to Argus. Obama’s values are the highest since October 2014.
The reduction in Russian oil risks, however, pales in comparison to the decline in gas exports, which has become a landslide with the onset of winter.
Despite the peak consumption of the season, in the first half of January, Gazprom exported only 5.4 billion cubic meters to foreign markets, which is 41% less than in the same period of the previous year.
The app’s readings are down a third from October and 43% from last summer, Saxo Bank estimates. Russian gas Europe is being replaced by liquefied gas, the import of which reaches a 2-year high (300 million cubic meters per day) and is almost 6 times higher than Gazprom’s supplies.
Gazprom, we recall, massively sells gas on the EU spot market of ultra-high contracts in August last year – a few days after the Düsseldorf court leaves to withdraw Nord Stream 2 from the norms of the EU’s third energy package.
According to the results of last year, gas exports from Russia to the EU have been unchanged for 6 years – 145.5 billion cubic meters.