27.5 thousand – the number of births (live) recorded in birth in 2021 in Poland by the Central Statistical Office. It can be that this data is unique, because a year earlier in the method that there were fewer children (26,000). It happens less and less that year on year shows an increase, not a decrease, in the number of children. From the beginning of 2020 (i.e. for 23 months) it happened only for the third time.
With births and deaths worst since the war
Of course, this is just a statistical curiosity, which does not change the picture of the situation in any way – fewer and fewer children are born in Poland. The sum for the last twelve months for which GUS data (i.e. from December 2020 to November 2021 inclusive) up to approx. 331.4 thousand. born children.
It can be stated that the data for the full year 2021 is quite similar. It is no surprise that will be to the lowest number in the post-war history of Poland. For comparison, a year earlier, in 2020, approx. 355 thousand people were born. children (375,000 in 2019, and even over 401,000 in 2017). In the worst year so far in Poland, there were 351 thousand. children.
On the other hand, we have, unfortunately, deaths. And we have a terrifying lot of those in Poland. In the prototype period, as for the birth statistics, i.e. from December 2020 to November 2021 inclusive, according to GUS data, about 512.7 thousand people died in Poland. people. We will show in the graph that we have – nearly 519 thousand deaths, because this is the sum of deaths in Poland in full 2021.
From the Registry of Civil Registry already in 2021, about 60.5 thousand people died in Poland. people, several thousand more than a year earlier. Ba, according to the data of the Registry of Civil Status (slightly different methodologically from those published by the Central Statistical Office), in 2021 over 520,000 people died in Poland. people. Also the worst year since World War II. In 2020, about 477 thousand people died in Poland. people, pre-pandemic “record” levels of approx. 414 thousand. in 2018
About 180 thousand fewer inhabitants of Poland per year
It all adds up to a picture of depopulating Poland. GUS data of the search that in 2021, the population of Poland was 38 million 116 thousand. Up to 178,000 less than a year ago. The reason for the non-execution of the pattern, but from birth, birth, but only a positive balance as well, also.
It is worth noting that the beginning of Poland may be possible soon. On Thursday, January 27, the Central Statistical Office is to show the first results Of the 2021 National Census of Population and Housing.
There is no return to the pre-pandemic state
Even if Poland finally deals with the additional dramatic additional deaths during the exacerbation of the pandemic situation once and for all, return to the past – when the number of births and deaths intertwined with each other – no longer exists.
On the one hand, demographic trends (aging of the population) introduced more and more deaths in Poland. Let the de facto unknown – new – the record of COVID-19 and negligence in prevention – do not significantly increase these numbers.
On the other hand, in the years, the number of births will continue to decline. There is simply no one (and there will be no one for a long time) to give birth to more and more children. In Poland, we already have 9 million women of childbearing age. This is over half a million less than years ago and over a million than twenty years. Besides, we have one with a new choma in Europe, fertility rate. Currently, it amounts to about 1.4 for Poland, which means that on average this number of children give birth to a child throughout the reproductive period.
Eurostat projection that in this city in Poland less than 300 thousand children per year (see the figure below from the “Draft Demographic Strategy 2040”).