the defense
The situation with Russian force building along the border with Ukraine has been closely monitored by the Armed Forces with the intelligence service for a long time, says Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen to Dagbladet.
He describes the large Russian force building as a serious situation for Europe, not just for Ukraine.
– At the beginning of December, there was an extraordinary meeting of Chiefs of Defense in NATO to discuss the situation. There was a new meeting of defense chiefs in January where Ukraine was also one of the main issues.
The backdrop
Last year, Russia sent large forces to the border with Ukraine. It is estimated that 100,000 Russian soldiers have been deployed there.
On the other side of the border, Ukrainian soldiers have dug themselves into trenches.
In 2014, Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula. Russia can attack “at any time,” the United States recently warned.
Sweden is upgrading and increasing military preparedness on Gotland. NATO and diplomacy in Europe and the United States are working in high gear.
On Wednesday, the United States promised a new $ 200 million in security support to Ukraine. Foreign Minister Antony Blinken warned that President Vladimir Putin could send more Russian troops to the border areas with Ukraine.
“Increased vigilance”
– Norway has a force from the army in Lithuania, as well as a frigate as part of an American aircraft carrier group that is now in the Mediterranean. In addition, we stand by our commitments when it comes to forces that have been reported to NATO’s reaction forces.
– Have you increased preparedness in Norway?
– Here at home, the Armed Forces implemented some emergency preparedness measures last year. These are mainly about increased vigilance and review of our plans, says Kristoffersen.
– The Armed Forces has not observed abnormal activity in the High North. Therefore, we have chosen to continue as planned with our presence on land, in the air and at sea in the north. The run-up to the large exercise “Cold Response” is well underway, with an increased Allied presence in Norway.
Russia has been notified of the exercise, and in the usual way to try to send observers.
The ability to defend
A frigate has been lost, the helicopters do not deliver and the new fighter jets are not fully operational until two to three years from now. Eirik Kristoffersen still does not lose his night’s sleep.
Dagbladet has been in contact with several former officers who are asked if the defense capability is good enough, but none of them want to be named.
When former officers and others try to draw parallels to April 9, 1940, and the German invasion of Norway, Kristoffersen sees no resemblance.
– Today we are a member of history’s strongest military alliance – NATO. When Norway was attacked and occupied in 1940, we had friends, but not allies. In January 2022, we are in a much better position than 72 years ago, says Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen, and adds:
– The condition is far better than it was five years ago.
At the same time, the general admits that there are significant challenges for the army, navy and air force.
The largest investment in Norwegian history – with the exception of the oil industry – the new fighter jets, will not be fully operational until three years from now. The 52 F-35 aircraft have cost as much as 90.2 billion Norwegian kroner.
Big challenges
The frigate KNM “Helge Ingstad” which collided and sank in the Hjeltefjord outside Bergen in 2018, has not been replaced. Of the four remaining frigates, one operates with an American aircraft carrier group.
At all times, one of the vessels is at the quay for heavy maintenance. Which in turn means that today only one of the original five frigates is in daily operation.
Army tanks are forty years old, and long overdue for replacement. And it does not get any better that billions in investments in helicopters have not been a success.
– 20 years after the contract was signed, and 10 years after the NH90 helicopters should have been in place, they are still not operational as planned. We have received 12 of the 14 helicopters, says Eirik Kristoffersen.
In Finnmark, the number of soldiers for what should be Finnmark Land Defense is not in place either, even though the construction is going according to plan.
70 billion
In NATO, Norway is the country that after the United States spends the most money per capita on defense. The defense budget is NOK 70 billion – that is, Norway spends around NOK 12,800 per capita on defense a year.
Former editor-in-chief Einar Sørensen of Bladet Tromsø, now an international adviser based in the French city of Toulouse, wrote a couple of weeks ago on Nordnorsk Debatt:
“The Defense Commission’s biggest task will be to restore confidence that Northern Norway has a credible defense.”
Sørensen concludes that right now we are at the bottom. From 1 January this year, we have no air defense in the north.
Dagbladet has not been in contact with Sørensen.
Sørensen describes the capacity of the new fighter jets as follows:
“… a fighter weapon with pilots afraid of crashing planes for a billion kroner, that is, approved only for” sunshine trips “in good weather”.
Rejects
Allegations by Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen reject.
– Right now we are phasing in the new fighter jets – F-35. In a transitional phase, we get a planned «bathtub level». It is true that we are now in a “dip”. It is a conscious risk we have taken. The emergency preparedness will be considerably better in the course of two to three years.
– What is the situation for the army?
– The structure is in place, but Finnmark land defense remains. We have challenges within what we call mechanized forces. The tanks are 40 years old, and thanks to good maintenance and good crews, they do not stand still. We need new tanks. It currently has a cost framework of NOK 19 billion.
– What is most important for the defense to get in place?
– There are three things that are urgent, more than anything else. We need to put in place long-range precision fire. More air defense, and increase the crew on the navy’s vessels – double the crews on the frigates.
– What is your biggest fear militarily?
– The worst that can happen is a nuclear war. Then comes a conventional war. Even though we live in a time of continuous digital attacks, attempts to spread fake news, there is still a danger of a conventional war. We see that in Ukraine. And the danger of terrorism is not over either.