The curve of the Covid-19 epidemic is in different phases in the Italian provinces and, among those that in recent days had exceeded the peak, we observe signs of ascent while others are decreasing, in still others the descent has suffered a setback and a phase of stasis is detected, while in some the peak has not been reached and the growth continues: it is a very heterogeneous map, the one that emerges from the analysis by the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for Calculus Applications ‘M. Picone’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).

The analysis shows that they have crossed the peak and are decreasing 16 province (Cosenza, Vibo Valentia, Avellino, Benevento, Caserta, Naples, Salerno, Ferrara, Rieti, Sondrio, Campobasso, Sassari, South Sardinia, Catania, Rovigo, Verbano Cusio Ossola); downhill, but weakly, also Crotone and Piacenza. I’m inside slowed degrowth other 17 province that have crossed the peak (Chieti, Bergamo, Como, Lecco, Lodi, Milan, Monza and Brianza, Pavia, Varese, Agrigento, Caltanissetta, Palermo, Syracuse, Arezzo, Florence, Massa Carrara, Terni).

After having past the peak and having had a braked descent, I’m in a phase of stasis 17 province (Catanzaro, Rimini, Genoa, Imperia, La Spezia, Savona, Brescia, Cremona, Enna, Ragusa, Trapani, Lucca, Pisa, Pistoia, Prato, Siena and Aosta). After passing the peak and having a braked descent, the curve is rising in four provinces (Potenza, Viterbo, Messina, Perugia).

After reaching a plateau, it is in growth the province of Rome; in weak growth are the provinces of Reggio Emilia and Frosinone. After a slowdown in growth, they reached a plateau 11 provinces (L’Aquila, Pescara, Teramo, Bologna, Forlì-Cesena, Modena, Parma, Ravenna, Latina, Asti and Nuoro). They are in slowdown growth and have almost reached their peak in 5 provinces (Isernia, Alessandria, Cuneo, Novara, Vercelli).

In phase of slowed growth 20 provinces (Bolzano, Reggio Calabria, Udine, Ancona, Ascoli Piceno, Fermo, Macerata, Pesaro and Urbino, Biella, Turin, Bari, Barletta-Andria-Trani, Brindisi, Foggia, Lecce, Taranto, Cagliari, Belluno, Venice, Verona ). It is in a phase of weak growth Trento, while a abrupt growth in Matera and Oristano. 6 provinces are growing linearly (Mantua, Grosseto, Livorno, Padua, Treviso, Vicenza). I’m finally in the process of accelerated growth Gorizia, Pordenone and Trieste.