An agreement on all points of the provisions on security guarantees between Russia and the United States is unlikely in the near future, State Duma deputy Dmitry Novikov believes. In a conversation with Lenta.ru, he, as well as political scientist Sergei Markov and military historian Boris Yulin, listed the most reliable US responses to Russia’s proposals and the outcome of the negotiations.

“The beginning of transactions confused the plans of Kiev”

“I must say that the initiatives put forward by the public of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs put the Western partners in a rather difficult situation. They are not ready to accept the full range of proposals, but they are likely to agree on positions in advance. For example, with the non-proliferation of certain types of activities,” Novikov believes.

Moscow, in turn, believes that by political decision they can decide for themselves whether it is ready to tolerate such uncertainty and what kind of response measures can be received. Russia, Novikov recalled, has the means to supply any possible one, whether to use these levers will be decided by the military-political leadership of the country.

However, there are some upsides to the current situation. The MP drew attention to the fact that the beginning of the appeal between Russia and the United States, obviously, confused the plans of Kiev, as can be seen from the contradictory statements of the head of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.

“In recent months, we have been feeling escalation, pressure in Russia with the help of the Ukrainian issue. Moscow constantly says that there are no invasions, but statements still come from the West with obvious goals. Apparently, this can be a generator of information cover for Ukraine’s activities in relation to Donbass,” the deputy is sure.

three ways

Markov sees the most likely outcome of the appeal in the short term is that the United States will propose to start implementing the minimum agreements.

“As you know, there are real cases in Washington and blocked all these years, for the observance of the Kiev regime, checks of state terrorism are being carried out. Now, as such a compromise, expect to finally move on to using them. The next problem will be in the formats. Presumably, significant self-fulfillment will be the occasion for new negotiations. In the end, everything will drag on just the same, ”the political scientist believes.

According to Markov, the scenario of a tacit agreement, which does not bode well for the countries, is the second possible achievement. Such a decision-making format for Russia is the DPR and LPR and the conclusion of a military alliance with them.

“In response to this, of course, compliance with the requirements of the United States follows, but not strictly. Due to the fact that as a result, Washington will be able to further intensify and expand Ukraine’s offer to “Anti-Russia”. And, finally, the third option is that simply no one will agree on anything. The Americans will prevent risk reduction on medium-range missiles, American military exercises. But formally, no important conditions will be achieved for any of the parties, but formally the parties will fix on paper on missiles, exercises and the return of the Russia-NATO council,” Markov admitted.

US preparedness for risk

Yulin is convinced that Russia does not expect any guarantees of security, because, no matter how much one would like the opposite, there are no sensual levers in Moscow that can put pressure on Washington on this issue.

The result here, according to Yulina, can be two: either an endless series of signals leading to nothing, or the beginning of hostilities. Guess which waiting scenario it thinks is impossible.

“Further everything is already beyond our knowledge. The fact is that we have no information about the state of the American missile defense system and the readiness of weather conditions that cause this risk by entering into a serious conflict with another nuclear power. So, in essence, the more effective American air defense, the closer we are to war, ”said Yulin.

The day before in Geneva, Senior Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken approached. The meeting lasted an hour and a half, and an official written response from the United States to Russia’s proposal is expected in the coming days.

Earlier, Blinken said that Washington is ready for a tough and quick response to Moscow’s possible aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, in his case, against the American side, they follow the path of diplomacy and dialogue to solve crimes.