The Competitiveness Forum estimates that the economy will grow from 2.5% to 4.5% in 2022, in a “more prudent perspective” that others point to more than 5%, and anticipates a “limited acceleration” of inflation, to 2% at 4%.

“Several sources available include that the economy should accelerate above 2022, and may grow by 5%, but this forecast should be read with caution, because it is related to the delay in the Portuguese recovery”, reads the Forum’s ‘Business Perspectives’, concerning to the fourth quarter of 2021 and released this Thursday.

As he explains, this place can leave any place with any kind of alteration, that a bigger gap to fill, and it shouldn’t be the type of composition to the national activity.

“The economies that will slow down next year are those that are either already recovering, or are more advanced in this process”, he says.

Second, the Forum for Activity advances the fact that “competitions external to the recovery” are “more persistent than expected”: “The escalation in prices of the strong continuation, as well as the difficulties in the supply of components to the industry, with a strong impact on inflation”, he considers.

And, if “central banks were lightheartedly facing the rise in prices, this attitude changed, with rises in the oath rate rising, which would be repeated throughout the year”, he notes.

In the case of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Forum states that “no rises in the reference rate are yet anticipated”, but admits that “this may change throughout 2022”.

Considering, therefore, that “there are several signs of concern for this year, in particular the persistence of inflation”, the Forum for Competitiveness adopts “a more prudent perspective than GDP [Produto Interno Bruto] from 2022 may 2.5% and 5%, 5%, line with 20 21 or, if the below grow less materialize, enter last year.

Slowdown in the third quarter

The Forum recalls that, in the third quarter of 2021, “the Portuguese economy slowed down from 4.4% to 2.9% in a chain, which corresponded to a more pronounced deceleration in year-on-year terms, from 16.1% to 4.2% , although these values ​​appreciate in very distorted exceptional fluctuations recorded 2020”.

“In European terms, Portugal recorded the second most delayed recovery today in the EU [União Europeia]”, he notes, adding, “in the fourth period of validity of the activity in Portugal, which will later decide that there will be no replacement of delay”.

With regard to the evolution of prices, the Forum for Competitiveness recalls that, in Portugal, a year-on-year inflation rate has been systematically below the euro zone, having settled around 1.5% in the third quarter of 2021. , and that “in the successive quarter it was noticeable1, having reached 2.7% in December, while the average inflation of 202% was only 1.3%”.

For the institution, “until the middle of 20222 it is probably a concern of inflationary thinking, but that should be slowed down later”, being “a limited definition of inflation in 2022, to between 2% and 4%”.

Led by businessman Pedro Ferraz da Costa, the Forum for the activity of the contest assumes itself as “an active institution in promoting increased competitiveness in Portugal, stimulating the development of productivity in companies”.