Forum for Competitiveness estimates that Portugal will grow 2.5% to 4.5%
“Several available sources predict that the economy should accelerate above 2022, and may grow by 5%, but this forecast should be read with caution, because it is related to the delay in the Portuguese recovery”, reads the Forum’s ‘Business Perspectives’, concerning to the fourth quarter of 2021 and released today.
As he explains, this place can be filled with any place, a reserve signal in which a greater gap to fill, and should not be a type of composition to national activity.
“The economies that will slow down next year are those that are either already completing the recovery, or are more advanced in this process”, he says.
Secondly, the Forum for the activity advances the fact that “competitions external to the recovery” are more persistent than expected”: “The escalation in prices of the continued strong, as well as the difficulties in the supply of components to the industry, with a strong impact on inflation”, he considers.
And, if “central banks were facing the rise in prices in a carefree way, this attitude has changed, with interest rate hikes rising, which will be repeated throughout the year”, he notes.
In the case of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Forum states that “no rises in the reference rate are yet anticipated”, but admits that “this may change throughout 2022”.
Considering, therefore, that “there are several signs of concern for this year, in particular the persistence of inflation”, the Forum for Competitiveness adopts “a more prudent perspective of the [Produto Interno Bruto] from 2022 may 2.5% and 5%, 5%, in line with 2021 or, if the below grow less materialize, check in last year.
The Forum recalls that, in the third quarter of 2021, “the Portuguese economy slowed down from 4.4% to 2.9% in a chain, which corresponded to a more pronounced deceleration in year-on-year terms, from 16.1% to 4.2% , although these values appreciate in very distorted exceptional fluctuations recorded 2020”.
“In European terms, Portugal recorded the second most delayed recovery today in the EU [União Europeia]”, he notes, adding, “in the period in which he decided the fourth quarter of the activity in Portugal, “in the later period he will decide to restore the activity in Portugal, which would not allow to recover the delay”.
Regarding the evolution of prices, the Forum for Competitiveness recalls that, in Portugal, a year-on-year inflation rate has been systematically below the euro zone, having settled around 1.5% in the third quarter of 2021 and that “in the quarter, only1 the successive ones were noticed, having reached 2.7% in December, while the average inflation of 2021 was only 1.3%”.
For the institution, “until mid-2022 there is likely to be a concern of inflationary thinking, but that should be slowed down later”, being “a limited combination of inflation in 2022, to between 2% and 4%”.
Led by businessman Pedro Ferraz da Costa, the Forum for the activity of competition assumes itself as “an active institution in promoting increased competitiveness in Portugal, stimulating the development of productivity in companies”.
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