There are problems that must be diverted to the country.
However, the vacancies are rarely more than, and when they are, the parties do not say that some platitudes make a dominant promise or that something has to be done. All, in the end, just to be able to go ahead and introduce these complicated topics.
I agree that in a blocked country like Portugal, there is no lack of other similar themes. But I think these are really the most important.
I’m talking about:
- Emigration, more young talents for entrepreneurs, more and more entrepreneurs and not resigned create economic other countries;
- Galloping aging of the national demographic structure and its political, economic and social effects;
- An electoral system and the possibility, tendency, for minority governments.
Each of these problems is serious enough in itself. But, in my opinion, they accentuate each other, enhancing the harm of each.
- every time young people emigrate, they know that they will earn little, pay exorbitant taxes, have to work to ensure the retirement of more and more people, knowing that theirs will not be minimally guaranteed;
- the age pyramid is getting worse and worse because more and more young people who have children who are nationals of other countries are emigrating, and therefore public expenditure will tend to increase;
- As a result, the elected is older and more conservative and less likely to face problems that offer sacrifices more and more;
- the electoral system is anti-competitive and favors the duopoly;
- and the formed parties have to negotiate so that these governments are not consistent and not stable for these changes, as for facing these problems.
THE STANDARD OF YOUNG PEOPLE
A text by Pedro Caetano, in Observador, reveals, based on Pordata and other rigorous information, that in the last 14 years (2007 to 2020) 1,060,442 Portuguese emigrated, almost all young people (170,000 live in the United Kingdom).
The number compares with 908,000 who immigrated between 1961 and 1974, for very serious economic reasons and because of the war in Africa.
This continuous row has been made up of preventive and irrelevant measures, so that nothing is said to be tried, and it serves as a throwing weapon between the PS and the PSD, despite both being final being the main responsible for why they always ruled Portugal 1976.
It would have taken a long time to have structured a public policy that materializes a strategy with broad national consensus, including by reduction”in general” of the IRS, a system similar to the one that favors foreigners who settle in Portugal, encouraging the hiring of emigrants. It would be a theme put in place by the PS and the PSD so that by the end of 2022 as measures in force.
THE EXPONENTIAL INCREASE OF THE REFORMED
At the moment we have 3.7 million retirees for 5.1 million active. And we have 1.4 million young people under 14 years old to 2.3 million over 65 years old.
The situation is going to get much worse and calls for urgent drastic measures on the age pyramid before it becomes totally unsustainable.
There are only admissible ways to try to improve the age pyramid:
- Strong birth rate incentives;
- Incentives bring to the family of young people, that children or form families and have.
And, again, what has been done are isolated, insufficient, palliative measures. As for the previous topic, during the year 2022 a Post Group should be created by the PS and the PSD so that by the end of 2022 a public policy for courage and determination to face the problem will be in force.
THE PERFECT STORM
The constitutional and electoral system has two elements that justify the lack of reforms, in addition to the fact that the pressure of young people is relieved by the emigration of the most active and daring and the fact that the older and retired are increasingly politically powerful.
Or, the pressure of each reform to pass has less force, worry about the pressure to postpone.
And all this is reinforced by two political characteristics of the Portuguese system:
- The formation of minority governments is not only not unfeasible, but above all it is favored by the difficulties of causing their downfall and by not needing a majority vote in favor of the Government’s program and the presentation of an annual motion of confidence.
- The electoral system has as it were only in 5 districts (Lisbon, Porto, Braga, Aveiro) there is any real chance of competition with the incumbent parties (PS and PSD), since in all the other 17 constituencies it is almost impossible to break the duopoly that triggers the policy with impunity
The scarce political goods theory also applies to:
- Sociologically, the groups that do not want change are increasingly stronger,
- emigration drains all the young years that will have an opposite trend,
- the possibility of minority governments the culture of negotiations and compromises for reforms,
- the PS/PSD duopoly totally dominates the functioning of the political system and, as is natural in oligopoly situations, limiting its minimum income to the groups that benefit from the political market.
As it is public – without enormous pressure from the opinion of the President of the Republic – the PS and PSD will never be available for:
- It is important that governments have less than an initial vote of confidence and even less an annual one that needs to obtain the favorable vote of 116 deputies,
- An electoral reform that increases competition, destroys or limits the oligopoly’s abusive dominant position.
For all this, I speak of a perfect storm, which drags us inexorably towards Europe’s tail.
It will only reinforce the conservative motivation by allocating increasingly scarce resources to groups that suffer most from deterioration and, therefore, reinforcing the conditions for the allocation of stagnation resources.
HOWEVER THE ELECTIONS…
This is the real reality. More on the surface we have laws within days.
Just January 30th?
So, let’s see what I think, with current data, regarding the future composition of the Assembly of the Republic (AR):
- PS will win, but without an absolute majority, but de Costa will ask without shyness;
- The Left will be the majority in the AR, but it drops in relation to 2019, due to the strong fall of the BE and even the PCP;
- The Right (including Chega) can go from 34.56% to 43% (more than 8.5% in votes, that is, increasing the vote by 25%) due to the growth of Chega and also of the Liberal Initiative;
- The PSD little more than receiving in 2019, will vote its votes to the Center, it will have more loss to the right.
And as for the future government:
- The PS will govern in a minority, increasingly dependent on the PSD’s approval, in what Costa said “governor to Guterres” and the Prime Minister will reinvent himself as “centrist“;
- Rio will remain as PSD leader and everything will try to deepen the relationship with the PS with a view to making changes in areas of its strategic priority;
- The PCP and the BE will be weakened, but the opposition will be stronger;
- The CDS will survive with fewer deputies, but globally benefiting from a good series of debates in Xicão and therefore now having a good image;
- Chega will become the 3rd party in terms of size and will be a nuanced opposition to the Government and the “central block”, trying to continue to grow at the expense of PSD;
- The IL will create a parliamentary group and gradually continue its policy strategy open to liberalism and try to be the Greece of Rome (PSD).
And as for the prediction of future developments:
- The 2022 Budget will basically be the one that was refused months ago, which will force the PSD to swallow some frogs when opting for abstention;
- The Budget for 223 will be accompanied by concessions to the PSD that will grant it victory and maintain abstention;
- The maintenance of the government in 2024 is revisable at this point, but not feeling it is impossible, especially if the PSD that anticipates in advance may lose more deputies to its Right.
The political system is always very unpredictable. It is an example of a schoolofficial” of a system and goals of determination, by the fact that human behaviors (behavior basis are a basis of such adjustments) can be rationally altered the system of which they are part of the results of rational evolution.
In other words, and as my dear friend and former partner António Maria Pereira used to say, the best critical response to a forecast is simply to say “or not“…
It’s on TAP. Someone sent me a text from an American passenger (Chris Matyszczyk, a well-known creative director) to praise TAP’s customer service.
I recently traveled to Paris and Rome and we were able to resume the excellent experiences of attention and professionalism on the planes and check in. So the compliment didn’t surprise me.
It would have been to avoid certain solutions and certain errors in the TAP case. The country is guaranteed about that. But now TAP has to save itself. And so it is time for all of us to follow Matyszczyk’s example and be able to pass on to his workers the signs that improve their self-esteem and the reasons to succeed. As long as they deserve it.
READING IS THE BEST MEDICINE
They have been able to read for yearsThe Man Who Liked Dogs” by Leonard Padura, the great Cuban writer. It happened to be now and I think there is no better time to read it than in an electoral campaign in which there is a party indissolubly linked to Stalinism (the PCP) and another that has its matrix in Trotskyism (the BE), both Leninists and defenders of the Revolution 1917 that began a century of totalitarianism.
Bottomless, the book tells the story of three men who liked dogs: from Trotsky, from Ramón Mercador, the agent of Stalin’s secret police who murdered him, and from the Cuban narrator who, like Padura, never wanted or was able to leave Cuba (despite seeing what is happening around him with horror) and who the murderer at the end of his life confessed.
It is a high quality historical novel. And an implicit libel for those who never had the courage to clearly and definitively condemn the matrix of their parties.
And it is also a sign that the lack of courage to media to put the BE and the PCP in the face of the need to regret and move away from communism, at least with the same courage with which he stigmatizes André Ventura, who is not afraid of everything like communist hands of blood like all the stained leaders, from Lenin to Stalin and Trotsky.
Read (there is a Portuguese edition of Porto Editora) because those who do not learn from the past repeat the same mistakes.
THE QUESTION WITHOUT ANSWER
This one is for those on the Right and Left who do not see themselves in the PSD or PS, as the case may be.
Today it is clear that the PS will win without getting an absolute majority and the PSD can do nothing to prevent it.
Therefore, the question is: can you probably explain to me the reason why – having alternatives, really 3 to the Right, 3 to the Left and the PAN – there are still those in the constituencies with more deputies who persist in resigning from the two parties of the duopoly , despite if not review in them?
Would strengthening the power of the duopoly be better for Portugal?
THE MANSA MADNESS
António Horta Osório disrespected the quarantine and, due to reputational damage, resigned from the leadership of one of the largest banks in the world.
Boris Johnson has done much worse and won’t resign.
There are two follies here, and a series of size-determination errors.
But it is good to realize that theresponsibility” of a private company is more severe and rigorous than that of governments. So get tired as lessons and lessons, at least in times of trouble.