What did happen in Kazakhstan? Last year, I wrote a series of articles about the republics of the former USSR – for the 30th anniversary of the Belovezhskaya Accords. Quite sincerely about Kazakhstan – a stable situation, fairly successful economic development, a very thoughtful “transit of power” …

Obviously, I’m not guaranteed for Kazakhstan. But he wrote something based on the texts of experts. I would risk suspicions that, with certain nuances, almost all of them have recently assessed the situation in exactly this way. And suddenly… Out of the blue…

The first “black swan” became known as the sudden doubling of gas prices. So on January 2 of the current year of the Tiger in Kazakhstan. It’s easy to see how this pissed people off. Massive – still peaceful – waves began. True, the political slogans “Old man, go away!” immediately appeared. “Old man” – the basis of modern Kazakhstan, Elbasy Nazarbayev.

The increase in gas prices grew rapidly, but the protest has already gone full throttle. Instantly – like gasoline splashed! – blazed up to the sky. Peaceful protests turned into pogroms, seizures of state buildings, shops, robberies, killings of policemen, mockery of them. It is impossible to write it on “element”. The organized nature of the riots was clearly visible – in contrast to the organizers themselves. The specificity of the “protest” (perhaps, coverage in the world!) is that neither leaders, nor organizations, nor intelligible slogans have appeared.

The “smooth transit” suddenly “stood up”, and “the clan struggle escalated as capitalism was built”…

On January 5, Tokayev made fundamentally important decisions. Changed government. The president dismissed the head of the National Security Directorate (KNB) of Kazakhstan (analogous to the FSB), General Makimov (by the way, the Thai boxing federation). In a few days. His place was taken by Sagimbaev, the former head of the president’s personal bodyguard.

And most importantly, Nazarbayev was removed from the post of chairman of the Security Council of the republic (he held this position since 1991), chairman Tokayev. By the way, according to the law, the post of chairman is for life, but in connection with the situation and the action of that time. This was the last position of the Elbasy. In 2019, he ran for president of Tokayev. In 2021, the ruling Nur Otan party and the chairman of the community of peoples of Kazakhstan ceased to be active. And now – the final pension. The crowd immediately demolished the monument to Nazarbayev in Taldykorgan. Now there are calls for the elimination of the monuments of the Elbasy throughout the country. It is clear that one or another solution to this issue does not apply to architecture, but only to verification. Nazarbayev never appeared on the screen. A statement of full support for Tokayev and a call to rally around him on behalf of the Elbasy was read out by his press secretary. And Peskov replied that he did not know if Putin knew the whereabouts of Nazarbayev. On the other hand, there was information that Lukashenko spoke with Nazarbayev.

Then, within about a week, order was restored. The number of victims, the number of detainees is estimated differently, but, one way or another, “the rebellion did not end in success.”

Official version: involvement of foreign terrorists – Islamic fundamentalists. No international organization of this level has taken responsibility. Tokayev spoke about the involvement of the Afghan Mujahideen. At the same time, Tokayev also spoke in his speech about the inability “or unwillingness” to hand over armed demonstrations to the KNB. Numerous experts agree that, according to the discovered cases, part of the crimes fell into the hands of the rebels from the special services. Nazarbayev was also criticized in Tokayev’s speech; during his stay in the country, a group of “super-rich people” arose who did not want to “share with society.”

I will not go into involving conspiracy theories on topics about various Kazakh clans and “families”, the environment with relatives and the ex-president’s entourage. The change of the elite is absolutely inevitable, how great is the degree of harshness (with confiscations and courts). In a word, “smooth transit” has sharply “sprung up”, and “clan struggle has escalated in order to build the measure of capitalism”…

Russia “passed the geopolitical slalom without knocking down a single stick”

But a few words must be said about external verification. In this situation, Putin almost completely complied with:

Strengthened authority of the CSTO – the organization has shown itself in action. The decisive role of the Russian Federation in the CSTO was confirmed. The political position of Russia in Kazakhstan has been strengthened. At the same time, Russia did not complicate relations with China. As you know, the PRC is of great importance and has great interests in Kazakhstan. Any leadership of the republic will balance between the Russian Federation and China, trying to maintain a “geopolitical balance”. Entering in time – leaving Kazakhstan on time, Russia “passed the geopolitical slalom without knocking down a single stick.”