Could 2022 be a window of opportunity in the USA-Turkey?
Hakan AKBAS
Commercial Diplomat
US-Turkey success hopefully helps 2022. Like our conversations with Madeleine Albright; me too, “a worried optimist”. And even further for 2022. You ask why? about, last year it hit the bottom so much; you two are better now than before. There is another very important narrative. First; Innovations in Turkish foreign policy. permission; Realpolitik of the USA and Turkey in 2022. (In politics, there are Biden’s midterm elections and Erdoğan’s early elections.) Thirdly; The threat to the world, the USA and Turkey in foreign policy: China-Russia-Iran truth.
Ankara started to normalize in foreign policy after the second pleasure of 2021. Due to the domestic economic weight and the course of the economy, the choice of the upcoming elections is Turkey, the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the future has economic value from abroad. Relations with the USA are also possible to this quota. Because it is one of the 5 largest trades between the USA and Turkey. At the same time, in comparison with America, the dollar is on fire.
It also exists in the US foreign security paradigm. China and Russia are participants in joint military, political and diplomatic cooperation against Biden. Although in the medium term Russia and China are more enemies than partners, they have condemned cooperation with conjunctivators. Against China, Ukraine versus Russia, and Eastern Europe and the Baltic, the US has a tougher job. The P5+1 in the Middle East is now closer to the atomic bomb, which did not sign the nuclear agreement. No region, from Israel to Turkey, is satisfied with Iran’s armament.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party are lagging behind in the polls as they go to the general and presidential elections to be held in 2023. If it happens quickly in the economy; An early election scenario in Turkey in 2022 would not be surprising. In the US, Biden, who has not passed one year of school; With Lara’s people in the polls, she continues to lose the 40th House in the November 2022 midterm elections, as well as the Senate by a margin. It ; Two leaders work that hard.
Ankara’s ambassador to Washington DC as Murat Mercan’s political preference candidate. In the United States, the Biden administration responded with former Senator Jeff Flake. Flake, who succeeds Satterfield assigned to Africa, will take office in January 2022. In the political era of corporate engagement and politics, both Mercan Flake’s political statements are your target in 2022 for an opportunity. Former Republican Senator Flake is slightly stronger than Biden in the Senate. For; In addition to Democrats, Republicans will be least exposed. However, the two trends in the history in this profile can also be the opposite, which can quickly improve. Biden’s teams and focused corporate relations.
İbrahim Kalın, who is Beştepe’s mind in foreign policy; It can be mentioned about a product consisting of a whole that Erdogan and Biden agreed on, and Ankara’s statement regarding the issue was explained in a letter to Washington. “We review the effort that has come to go with it to move forward from trade, to debate, from the defense industry to solving common problems with a positive agenda.”
Ankara issue There are 3 main issues: First; US document given to PYD-YPG in Syria. Since Trump, Syria and the United States have changed a lot. Daesh’s squash has been scraped. A new page opens in Syria’s Assad target. Neither Assad has lost nor those who oppose him have won. It is not possible for the USA to find a solution in Syria against Russia by only supporting the Kurds. Against Russia, Ankara’s hands are tied. Whereas; Ankara, which is the smart place of the Kremlin in Ukraine, may encounter a new immigration from Idlib at any moment. In Syria and Iraq, the US and Turkey’s opposition to both Russia and Iraq will become more important than supporting a trip organization in Northern Syria.
The second issue is; After Turkey’s Russian jet was shot down, we are in the position of ‘blood currency’ by the Kremlin. Just as the grandfather could not receive the first orders, which he had to buy, worth 1.5 billion dollars, from the F35 dollar platform, which was removed from Turkey, which is the second largest system owner of NATO, and he has yet to pay the money. A detailed drawing of Putin, enlarged in October, by Modi, the leader of India, who bought S400 systems twice the size of Turkey’s purchase. If there is a CAATSA law; properly done for him. The USA punishes Ankara for its audacious and free foreign policy in the East, and they use the spare parts of the F35s and even the spare parts of their 50+ industries and F16s in the mid-air show to the most and rightful Defense Presidency. The members of the US Congress from Bob Menendez, the head of US Foreign negotiations, who made the most harsh speeches against Turkey, those who demanded that India be exempted from what it needs and demands against China. Didn’t the same senators quarrel with the heaviest ones to blame the same thing about its member Turkey, which was left alone against Russia to wash Ukraine after Syria and Crimea? The interests of the USA are to economically and militarize NATO member Turkey, can you reduce the air force against Russia? Whereas; Russia is discussing it a Ukraine. Biden and Erdogan in June 2021; Let’s not forget the 2030 plan Turkey has drawn on the southeast flank of NATO. S400s were purchased in Ankara, but it is not clear who is against the enemy. It’s not NATO. The Russia that surrounds us is not at all. Then, locking the S400s in a hangar in Azerbaijan or Northern Cyprus will be the ashes of this fire. Turkey’s alternative passengers are those who go to the latest generation F16 Ankara planes and modernization kits for the old ones. Being on the face of the F35, whose budget and sustainability have been questioned, has now created a historic opportunity to look at options from TSK Europe.
The third person is; It has been announced that FETÖ will not be carried out in the USA. In recent months, the last 5 blows have been struck, where news about the future of leaders can move on this path. In the USA, it now prefers Ankara in areas where one by one consumes its entire lobby capacity. Turkey was completed in the Trump era, following the direct path of the leader and up to Biden’s era. The weekday lobbies that deteriorate with Israel are neutral. Extracting industry from the S400s and advocacy after the NGOs crossed Ankara. The Armenian lobby with the Karabakh crisis, the Greek lobby with the tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus are those that engage in more aggressive activities against Turkey. FETO, on the other hand, wanted to hide the library as its subcontractor. In 2022, the connector has changed: it’s no longer what the US consumes. Problems solved but frozen; Armenia and Turkey are starting to renew themselves. Greece and Southern Cyprus took a step back after the Blue Nationality. With Netanyahu losing the election, Tel Aviv and Ankara leaders are about to go back to normal. After FETO, an Ankara business that can be equipped for the Muslim family in the USA, new plans include election, ekmists, artists, writers, people, believing in the goal of Turkish disapora, renewing all Turkish NGO’s leading leaders and board of directors that have USA-Turkey on their business cards. proficiency in professional use, touching on Congress, will attempt a demonstration and performance where they can achieve these effective ends. It is worth paying attention to this work of the new ambassador Murat Mercan.
Turkey’s recent exclusion policy is economically appropriate in terms of pragmatism. Turkey’s son, which owns the first 5 trade instruments, is the biggest opportunity for the USA 5 22 to be expanded by more than 20 billion dollars. The supply chain, which has a comparable trade structure with China, should pass through Turkey more.
The two old realpolitik of 2022 have been used visually, almost to the point of not being used at all. The newly appointed elections are animated, balanced and pragmatic, and can accelerate the dialogue between the two leaders and close within its two livable endings. 2022 should be a year of opportunity.