Does it have to get worse before it gets better? “The darkest hour comes just before the light,” Ingmar Heytze wrote at the end of last year. Who wants to sing it: The darkest hour is just before sunrise. So a column about corona.

The closure of non-essential stores and other restrictions give the Netherlands a false sense of security. Men eagerly await easing. Protesters are demanding it. Look what else is coming. The infections there are at record high due to the Omikron wave. Precautions are being planned to cope with the further rise and even a possible increase. The government last week asked the public sector to make plans for the bleakest scenario: a quarter of their people are sick. How will the country continue to function? The British government apparently takes into account that vital sectors in the economy can become disrupted.

The call reminded me to the interview with the deputy ambassador of the Netherlands in Kabul last weekend in de Volkskrant. Cees Roels explains how the Netherlands lagged behind and describes the difference in response when the Afghan army retreated in March and April 2021. “Militaries, especially Americans and British, think differently. They are just going to prepare for the healthy.”

The Netherlands is waiting. The Netherlands is now waiting for the new cabinet. A changing of the guard in times of crisis is always precarious. The coalition parties are the same, but all ministries change political leadership on Mark Rutte. Old-timers finish their work from looking at their new position, newcomers jump in at the deep end.

Suppose the British government is not stupid with its planning and a worst-case scenario of 25 percent absenteeism, how would that turn out in the Netherlands? Don’t just think about people who are infected themselves, but also about quarantines. There are already staff shortages in healthcare and education.

Does anyone in The Hague know what percentage of absenteeism vital sectors get stuck? That ProRail no longer dares to run trains. That distribution centers no longer deliver part of the orders. And get yourself. That shelves are empty and hoarding goes from bad to worse. Not to mention the consequences of a wave of sick leave in education and care.

The most recent public figures on absenteeism are one to two months old. The trend? Up. Only companies and works for know where they stand today. They know when their staffing capacity is getting tight. And when things get stuck. But the latter does not happen in the always organized Netherlands. Not in vital sectors. However?

A year ago NRC an attachment stating ‘Business as usual’. About the consequences of corona for the economy and for the Netherlands. The sad thing is: in some respects nothing has changed. Should healthcare continue on the old decentralized basis? Or is more centralization more practical? The question is unanswered. The cabinet is only now thinking about a long-term strategy for corona. How do you do that?

One simple suggestion. Divide the core team of ministers, civil servants and advisers in half. One half sets out crisis management, the other half sets out the strategy for the three years. If 2021 has learned anything, it is that crisis managers do not offer a long-term perspective, which is urgently needed now in the darkest hour.