The data analyst gave a forecast for the spread of omicron in Russia: Politics: Russia: Lenta.ru
Alexander Dragan, researcher, big data analyst. He told about this to “Lente.ru”.
At the same time, he notes that diagnostic methods do not yet allow fixing a new strain in real time. According to the specialist, the currently used methods of sequencing the strain allow starting its active diagnosis only 23 days after it was recorded by scientists.
We just observed this in the summer, when the delta came to us. The fact that she came and began to dominate, we first learned from the rapid increase in the incidence. And only after a couple of weeks it became clear.
Alexander Dragandata analyst
Dragan believes that the upcoming holidays will affect the spread of the strain, as the New Year holidays play a long role as a kind of mini-lockdown. Last year, at this time, there was a rather noticeable decline in the incidence.
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“On the other hand, in the last two weeks they began to hold corporate events throughout the country, and in European countries they showed that they were spreading to the virus. For example, recently in Norway there was a case when 80 people out of 111 who were at a corporate party were infected, ”he added.
Tourists, as well as those who decide to visit relatives in the regions during the holidays, play their part in spreading the new strain.
What is my rough estimate that by the end of the holidays and mid-January we will see a powerful rise in the omicron
Alexander Dragandata analyst
The specialist added that the higher infectiousness of the strain can lead to an increase in the number of hospitalizations and the overall burden on the medical system in the event that information about its low pathogenicity is fully confirmed.
Dragan had previously stated that the current omicron strain would not necessarily displace the delta. On the contrary, he can get along with her in the same population, which will create conditions for “twindemia”.
The analyst, in a conversation with “Lenta.ru”, previously told about the discovery in the omicron of a mutation characteristic of the delta, which is responsible for its high lethality.