The UN Security Council recently extended the EU-led peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina for one year. The unanimous vote, which was attended by representatives of China and Russia, should be good news, given that the tension between the country’s three ethnic groups is growing.

In reality, however, another angle has been struck in the coffin of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which ended the 1992 and 1995 end-of-year civil war and adequate safeguards for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Tony Barber said. Financial Times publicist.

The UN resolution was needed because the Western powers were reluctant to stand up for the values ​​they represented, which would allow them to exercise their power, at least within Europe, in a region that has dominated the United States and the EU since the 1990s. in external power. influence.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the ethnic divisions of the Serbian, Croatian and Muslim communities have been frozen by peace, and as external support for maintaining this regime weakens, there is a risk that the country will become fragmented, such as Moldova, Georgia (Georgia) or Ukraine. on the basis of Russian support, quasi-states broke out.

An extensive war is unlikely, but the insidious threat of secession that the leaders of the Serbian community are revolutionizing is all the more viable. The Security Council vote is a bad omen because it has involved the Russians and the Chinese, who can ask for the price of their support. The first price that had to be paid was the omission from the text of the UN High Commissioner for Sarajevo, which could cost a lot among Western countries.

Keep order

It is the job of this agency to abide by the Dayton Agreement with all parties involved, including to rule out the disintegration of Bosnia in the wake of the activities of the extremist nationalist political forces. The post of High Representative has always been delegated by European countries, and in recent years, 140 Bosnian judicial officials, ministers and now elected politicians who have posed a threat to this Dayton regime have been removed from office.

If Western politicians do not feel the need to refer to the Office of the High Commissioner, it will signal to Serbian separatists that the West is no longer interested in rigorously adhering to the Dayton Peace Agreement. Local Serb leaders, like Russia, have always wanted the office liquidated. last Western diplomats are even flirting with the idea of ​​strengthening the country’s ethnically based parties with an electoral reform.

Dark shadow

Former German High Representative in Bosnia, whose appointment in August has not been recognized by the Serbian community and Russia, warned Bosnia and Herzegovina that it was plunging into the worst existential crisis since Serbia’s secessionist efforts since the Yugoslav war. According to an expert in the British business paper, if the West signs the country’s ethnic-based political divide, it will lay the groundwork for facing serious challenges in the future.