which is still holding back the Kremlin – TSN Exclusive – tsn.ua.
The only thing that is still holding back the Kremlin is the numbers on the economic calculator.
The main question that sounds in the apartments of ordinary citizens and the most influential offices on the planet on the eve of the holidays – whether Ukraine will enter the new year with peace.
About what scared the Kremlin tsar so much that he agreed to sit at a round table with NATO and whether Moscow is using the Christmas holidays for a cynical invasion of Ukraine – December 26, the district in the story TSN.Tyzhden.
INVASION FROM THE SEA OF AZOV
The American Post “The Washington Post” does not rule out the possibility that the Moscow invasion will not start from where we expect: east or north, and from the Sea of Azov. The Kremlin is making final preparations for an attack on Ukraine, but Putin has not yet formed the final puzzle where his gains were obvious for the loss.
For the first time in three years, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is ready to convene the NATO-Russia Council. And it is already clear that Moscow, even if it comes to him, will have the same ultimatums: which everyone already knows and rejects. But it is these outrageous demands that give reason to think that Putin does not demand so much attention from himself, in particular from Joe Biden.
Therefore, the probability of a Russian invasion in NATO is considered lower, but it is still too early to exhale with an increase.
MANEUVERS ON THE BORDER
Just a few hundred kilometers from the Ukrainian border, Russian snipers and motorized rifle crews began what they call maneuvers. They practice not only with rifles, but also with portable anti-aircraft missile systems “Igla” worth 80 thousand dollars apiece.
Russia does not stop the flow of equipment and columns of soldiers concentrated near the Ukrainian border. 122,000 Russian soldiers are already 200 kilometers away. A little further – more than 140 thousand. Tactical battalion groups are located not only on the eastern and northern borders of Ukraine. The recent satellite images show that military bases in the occupied Crimea are being replenished with armored personnel carriers, tanks, self-propelled artillery and air defense. According to media reports, Moscow is also actively recruiting mercenaries for “business trips” to the occupied territories of Donbass, and there are not many people willing to fight in eastern Ukraine. Potential mercenaries get to know each other, fight with volunteers with minimal equipment, as was the case in 2014, get not the same as with the regular army, and they do not want to be in the cargo of “200”. But I want Putin, who is convinced – Europe can be pressed, and the United States will then give up.
WHAT IS HOLDING THE KREMLIN
The only thing that is still holding back the Kremlin is the numbers on the economic calculator. According to a British journalist, the price of an invasion for Russia will be equal to Chechnya multiplied by ten or Georgia multiplied by 30. And it can be slightly increased. According to the American media, the Pentagon is ready to share operational intelligence with Ukraine. Operational means directly controlling the battlefield: issuing targets, tracking maneuvers and creating the most effective counterattack plans.
The White House also seems to be thinking about helping the Ukrainian army and guerrillas. Moreover, the term guerrillas is a whole set of measures, for which there are large ones with additional defense weapons and logistics. In this list you can see helicopters and portable anti-aircraft missile system “Stinger”, which can know exactly those who are currently training to shoot in Ukraine “Needle”. However, the talk of guerrillas is a special reminder to Putin from the White House – because he now hears only American appeals that Ukraine’s attack does not mean control over it.
“The only aggression we see now on the Russian-Ukrainian border is Russia’s military build-up and militant rhetoric from the Russian leader,” said White House spokesman Jen Psaki.
MAIN ALLIES OF UKRAINE
However, the demand for Ukraine’s ally, paraphrasing the British aphorism, is its own army. And all landfills in the country are hot now. Interesting shots came from the Azov region. Ukrainian soldiers have checked whether Russian battleships will save the nets welded over them from a shot from Javelin. And they checked it in the most adverse weather conditions. Rain, clouds, low visibility and gusty wind. The result – one hundred percent hit the target. Anti-cumulative Russian art is powerless. The rocket is in the middle, the metal is literally burning, and this greatly demotivates Russian tankers to climb into the middle.
Russia has also not established a military monopoly in the Black Sea. The pride of the French fleet will be patrolled by the state-of-the-art 140-meter frigate Auvergne for the next few months. On board cruise missiles with a range of a thousand kilometers, anti-ship and anti-aircraft systems. And now this floating fortress is moored in the port of Odessa. This is the tenth NATO ship to physically cover Ukraine’s sea gates this year.
Due to the threat of Russian invasion, according to the German newspaper “Die Welt”, NATO has put the Rapid Reaction Force on high alert. The total number of mobilized troops is 40,000 – units of land, air and naval forces and special forces. Germany has a new government, and although its latter is more acute than under Merkel, they continue to believe in the possibility of pacifying Putin without first imposing sanctions.
“I have said many times in recent days how important it is for us to return to the Normandy format talks. But we also want to take advantage of the NATO-Russia Council talks and see that we can overcome further escalation, because the main crisis in which we found ourselves, it can be resolved only through dialogue, “said German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbok.
FAILURE POSITION OF OLD EUROPE
Kyiv assessed this position as a failure: real action is needed before, not after, the attack. But old Europe prefers not to rush to justify Moscow’s forecasts. However, Eastern Europe, like no other, all your fibers consider a threat – in Guta about it spoke the presidents of the Lublin Triangle – Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania.
“Our common task is to deter the threat from Russia, to protect Europe from Russia’s aggressive policy. Today, Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania are at the forefront of this deterrence,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
His Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda believes that “if Russia wants to transfer missiles with warheads on the territory of Belarus, it will do so.” According to him, only NATO’s decisive position can stop this and the United States.
COMBINATION OF KYIV WITH WASHINGTON
Several senators visited Ukraine to understand what kind of assistance our state needs most at the moment. Leaders of the bipartisan Support Group of Ukraine in the US Congress held a virtual meeting with the President of Ukraine. They are extremely direct – the United States must provide enhanced military defense assistance to Ukraine to impose sanctions on Nord Stream-2. And this irritates the Kremlin. At any rapprochement between Kyiv and Washington, Moscow is reacting to a new wave of fakes, looking for the so-called “Belly incident” – such a clear reason for the invasion. According to the Kremlin, there are now hundreds of American mercenaries working in Ukraine who have brought chemical weapons with them.
It is difficult to believe in such people with a sober head. Moreover, the whole world still remembers very well who is carrying the “Newbie” combat gas across Europe. Washington may try to appease Moscow in January in bilateral talks. At least that’s what the Kremlin heard. But the State Department is in no hurry to confirm Putin’s desired meeting.
“We are now more united with our allies and partners than we were a year ago on almost every issue, including Russian aggression and its neighbors. It is too early to say whether Biden will meet with Putin. Diplomatic progress must be made first. We want to see de-escalation border with Ukraine. Under such conditions, it would be more appropriate to have a conversation, “said US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken.
So who will take it will depend on how much the event has really changed. This is no longer similar to the nature of ridiculous total concern, as in 2014, but it is not worth talking about the full readiness of Russia’s confrontation.
pass:
The Kremlin said that ready to discuss with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky only bilateral relations. According to the spokesman for the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, they will not communicate with the Donbass conflict.
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