Putin is promoting the “Soviet agenda” and at the same time understands that the “window of opportunity” to restore influence in Ukraine is closing. That is why he demands immediate talks with the West, according to his press conference. In these circumstances, Ukraine needs to strengthen both its defense capabilities and diplomacy so that the Kremlin’s dreams of expanding its influence cannot be realized and Ukraine’s fate cannot be agreed upon without it. This was called for by Ukrainian and some Russian analysts in a Radio Svoboda poll.

President of Russia Vladimir Putin demands “security guarantees” from NATO, because, he claims, Ukraine’s accession to NATO or the deployment of Western weapons on its territory “threatens Russia”

“You demand that I give you some guarantees. You must give us a guarantee. Immediately. Now!” This is one of the most resonant statements of the President of Russia at the annual press conference.

However, this is just one of his messages related to Ukraine. Radio Svoboda gathered experts’ opinions on what Putin said and how to react to his statement to Ukraine and the West. Experts assess everything said at the press conference in the context of the accumulation of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders, the gas and migration crisis in Europe and the ongoing de-escalation talks between Russia and the West and Ukraine.

Putin’s main months: what they show

At the request of Radio Liberty, the main position of the Russian president was analyzed by a Ukrainian political scientist, an expert on Ukrainian-Russian relations. Olesya Yakhno.

Most of them, in her opinion, are the agenda of the last century: the period of the USSR and its confrontation with the West: the “Caribbean crisis” and the “Cold War” in general. This is exactly the Kremlin’s system of concepts and its demands, which look like a “parallel reality” for the end of the world, the expert said. Putin has a lot to say about Ukraine, but mentions of it, and most of Putin’s theses at the press conference, are standard theses of Russian propaganda, says Olesya Yakhno.

Russia allegedly needs security guarantees from the West, despite the fact that Russia is taking steps to directly or shackle destabilize coordination, concentrating troops on Ukraine’s borders and introducing a migration crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border, resorting to other means of pressure and threats.

Ukraine is allegedly preparing to return by force the occupied part of Donbass, and the NATO country is allegedly preparing provocations against Russia in parallel.

“It seems completely absurd to the whole world, because neither Putin says that the whole world is threatening him, not him. And he is trying to promote this “inverted agenda”, – explains Olesya Yakhno. She does not rule out that this is aimed primarily at Russia’s domestic audience.

• Through “Around one enemy”, forced Club events.
• “The fate of Donbass must be decided by the people of Donbass”. This is an attempt to shift responsibility for the war from Russia to Ukraine, the expert said.
• “Lenin created Ukraine” and other theses of historical propaganda. They look like a selective approach to history: Putin is questioning Soviet-era decisions (delineating Ukraine’s current borders, including Crimea) and urging the world to respect other decisions of the time, such as the former Soviet sphere of influence.

“We must be consistent: if Russia calls for elections in Ukraine that were” transferred “to it during the Soviet period, then Russia must be ready to give away the territories it received during this period,” said the discrepancy expert.

“Putin really lives in an alternative historical reality, completely fictional,” – this conclusion from his speeches also makes a former member of the Russian State Duma. Ilya Ponomarev, who was the only one to vote against the attempted annexation of Crimea.

He evaluates several other theses of Putin.

• “Donbass wanted to be part of Russia.” so not to be, even the so-called “Dotsko-Kryvorika Republic”, to which Putin appealed, was not part of Soviet Russia, on the contrary, could be Ponomarev’s collapse of imperial Russia. This and others are the usual “half-truths” for the Russian leader, Ponomarev told Radio Svoboda.
• Ukraine “twice tried to solve the Donbass issue by force”, and therefore “Russia had to act.” In fact, he recognized his Russian military deputy, who was a former deputy.
• Thesis about “one nation” and non-recognition of the right of independent Ukraine to exist.

“Putin’s course is not trying to restore the Soviet Union as it was, but to restore it as a ‘union of Slavic republics.’ However, at the moment Putin wants to join Belarus in this “union”, and he uses the annexation of Ukraine as a “scarecrow” for the civilized world, details the former State Duma deputy.

• Where the influence of the West – there, allegedly, impoverishment, rising gas prices and tariffs. specifically in the context of Putin mentions the situation in Ukraine and the gas crisis in the West.

According to Oles Yakhno, two internal Russian problems are hidden behind these and other theses of Vladimir Putin.

The first is the psychological complex of the Soviet Union’s loss in the Cold War, and Putin is constantly returning to the Soviet past. And the second problem is Russia’s fear of questioning Russia’s identity. And so – the desire to spread this problem to neighbors, because of the same “Russian spring”. Although this topic is more acute for Russia itself: it is separatism, the status of the federation, and ensuring the rights of national minorities, “the expert explains.

Maria Zolkina, Political analyst of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation concludes from Putin’s speech that the war in Donbass is not an important and important influence of Russia, and therefore de-escalation in eastern Ukraine is impossible without changes in Russia’s policy and the situation in the region as a whole.

“Russia’s stakes are much higher. What we have heard is that Russia is waiting for the West to respond to the so-called “security guarantees”, it is a question of NATO enlargement / non-enlargement. From a separate episode of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, we have already moved to the stage when Donbass is only a small part of the big puzzle, when there will be no progress on the Donbass issue, ”the expert concludes.

Is the Kremlin ready for de-escalation?

This is perhaps the main question posed by Western and Ukrainian politicians and experts who followed the Russian leader’s press conference. After all, Vladimir Putin’s speech took place during the training of Russian troops near the borders of Ukraine and after several stages of negotiations between the Kremlin and the West, in particular – after the conversation between the presidents of Russia and the United States.

Putin’s rhetoric has not become more aggressive, but he also does not show a willingness to reconcile, Olesya Yakhno said.

“It is impossible to say that there was any new military rhetoric, at one time there were tougher statements. But there was no peace at this press conference. Rather, there was a growing inadequacy. Such as the statement that the rest of the world is in a parallel reality, “said the political scientist.

Putin’s rhetoric, including his urgings to negotiate with the West and demands for a “security guarantee” are due to the fact that the “window of opportunity” to restore the Kremlin’s influence in Ukraine is closing, he said. Alexander Hara, expert on foreign and security policy of the Center for Defense Strategies.

“The road sees how the Armed Forces are strengthened. And thanks to its own defense-industrial complex, and thanks to foreign partners, especially the United States. These things show that Ukraine is no longer so “harmless” that it can no longer be so easily blackmailed, it is no longer so easy to deal with. And Putin is losing the opportunity to regain influence, “the expert explained.

Therefore, the Russian, on the one hand, sees the closure of the window of opportunity for the reconstruction of Ukraine, and on the other hand the “rather weak presidential administration” in Washington. Which was more to compromise than to show strength. And this is the reason for the aggravation initiated by Russia.

On the other hand, an attempt at a full-scale invasion of Ukraine will “undermine Russia’s strength” and it will disappear from the political map of the world in its current form, Alexander Khara explains.

All the claims and demands to the West and Ukraine made by Vladimir Putin at the press conference and all his fears about “NATO enlargement” are a consequence of his own aggressive policy and war with neighbors, Radio Svoboda said. Kirilo Martinov, a representative of the Russian opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta.

“On the one hand, it is a product for domestic use … Whether there will be conflict and mobilization, whether there will be some pacification – in any case, Putin becomes like ‘our leader and savior’, this is a win-win technology. But if Russia did not annex territories, did not wage war on its borders, NATO would have nowhere to expand, so there would be security in Europe. Surprisingly, for many Russians, this rhetoric is convincing, as if everyone has forgotten the sequence of events: who started the war and annexed Crimea (this is an illegal annexation – ed.) “, – said the Russian opposition journalist.

These are Putin’s: how to act in Ukraine

In the context of Russia’s escalation in Eastern Europe and the accumulation of troops near Ukraine’s borders, Ukraine in particular needs to step up its response to its defense, and not just diplomatic ones. All experts who discussed Freedom in the press with Radio both before and after Putin’s conference agree. Here are the main steps and solutions they are happy about:

• Ukraine’s participation in negotiations on so-called “strategic consultations” between Russia and the West. It doesn’t matter, directly or indirectly, that Ukraine is involved as an active player, and the parties do not agree on anything without it, says Maria Zolkina, a political analyst at the Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

“This is the number one task for the Ukrainian side. Such a danger, on which the prospects of Crimea and Donbass will depend, and the escalation on the Ukrainian-Russian border, is, in fact, whether we (Ukraine – ed.) Will at least in some active way (not necessarily directly) sit at the table negotiations. We definitely need to be at the forefront of this process, “the expert said.

• Maximum international publicity regarding all actions and intentions of Russia. Former Deputy Head of the Security Service of Ukraine Viktor Yagun believes that without maximum disclosure of information about the Kremlin’s plans and actions, it will be extremely difficult to disrupt them.
• Synchronization Ukrainian and Western intelligence. At present, Ukraine receives information from Western partners about its Russia near its borders and in the occupied territories with inadmissible knowledge, says Andriy Sharaskin, a People’s Deputy from the Voice and chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s subcommittee on international maritime policy and security.
• Preparation before the war of the army and the state in general. Settlement territorial defense and building a civil defense system.

With the growing Russian threat, territorial defense forces are developing, but virtually nothing is being done to prepare the civilian sector (citizens and authorities) for a possible major war, admits Andrei Sharaskin.

“Dine, what to worry about – are we ready (Ukraine – ed.) For war with Russia, and we are ready,” – said political expert Konstantin Batozky.

• Supply Ukraine summer weapons. According to Konstantin Batozky, this process has intensified in recent weeks. Thus, the supply of weapons to Ukraine was announced by Lithuania, which, in turn, as a NATO country has access to the arms market of the United States and other members of the Alliance, the expert explains. I add that the United States is actively involved in this algorithm, in line with Russia’s escalation.

On December 7, US leader Joe Biden held talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The President of the United States said that warned Putin: If Russia launches new military action against Ukraine – which, according to US intelligence, may be possible in the coming weeks – United States and Allies impose sanctions, “Which he (Putin) has never seen.”

The next round of talks between the presidents of the United States and Russia may take place in January.