TV3 Knowledge Survey on Stopping the Transit of Belarusian Fertilizers: How Much Will Lithuania Harm and How Much Will Lukashenko?
Belarusian dictator Lukashenko visited the newly opened Belaruskali mine in Petrykov in the south of the country at the end of August this year. As the dictator himself says, potassium fertilizers are the country’s brand. Potassium extraction brings a lot of money to the regime.
“Let’s say that for the first year at least a million a year: 500 thousand. amount, another 500 thousand. USD – the first two years “, – Alexander Lukashenko publicly, how many hundred years the plant will have to spend on the city every year, hardly with the promises of a liar.
And how much Belaruskalij carries into the dowry of Lukashenko’s abducted country every year – Forbes magazine is counting at a time when the regime was recklessly haunting its citizens on the streets.
Belarusian potassium company earns about 3 billion a year. cash income, which is about 2 to 2.5 billion. euros. Revenues from the Belarusian potassium industry are estimated to account for almost a tenth of the country’s total.
And these fertilizers travel all over the world through our railroads and port. Then, if exports were restricted through Lithuania, other ports for Belarusian fertilizers would become much further away.
“The first effect will be that Belarus will have alternative logistics chains to export to the market. This is the most realistic way to export through the Russian port of Ust Luga – the first problem is higher logistics costs and the cargo and export capacity of Russian ports for fertilizers, ”says economist Aleksandr Izgorodin.
A much further route of Belarusian fertilizers to the world through the ports of St. Petersburg – if the Latvians do not take the fertilizer or, according to economists, will mean not only a loss-making regime, but also a worldwide increase in fertilizer prices, as Belarus is one of the world’s largest suppliers of potassium fertilizers. with Canada and Russia.
“Any disruptions in supply will affect the market for this product. And prices will rise and this will disappoint throughout the supply and value chain. It is natural that the prices of agricultural raw materials will naturally be affected in the long run, ”says Indrė Genytė-Pikčienė, an economist at INVL.
Potassium fertilizers are already becoming more expensive in Europe. The price of potassium fertilizers has risen by ten percent since August. $ 202 to $ 221 per metric tonne, from $ 178 to $ 195 per metric tonne, respectively.
“The supply of all fertilizers in Europe is very limited due to high energy resources, if we see an even greater restriction on Belarusian fertilizer imports, we will see an even lower supply in Europe we will see food inflation in Europe as a commodity component, ”says A. Izgorodin.
That is, if Europe includes Belaruskali in sanctions, the regime will lose 20%. our customers, and the community, so we will have to buy fertilizers from Canada or Russia’s Uralkali. And buying fertilizer from Putin is almost the same as from Lukashenko. How much will it cost – economists do not predict.
But one number is already due to the knowledge that it has become clear how much Lithuania will lose the transit interruption. What has been a trade secret so far has become an estimate of the losses of public companies – 60-70 million. Lithuanian railways and about 20 million euros to the port of Klaipeda. LTG Cargo’s Belarusian cargo accounts for 25-30%. of all cargo, in Klaipeda port – 32 percent.
“It simply came to our notice then. It is a question of two companies, the port and the railway, ”says I. Genytė-Pikčienė.
“It simply came to our notice then. Both sides will suffer serious losses as they lose the cheapest investment in the logistics chain to drive, have to pay, and suffer through exports and profitability. Lithuania and the EU will suffer, as the fall in fertilizers in Belarus means less supply, where it is already small. This will mean better food prices for everyone, ”says A. Izgorodin.
“The whole logic of foreign policy is based on the values of security stability for ourselves, the spread of over-democracy in the neighborhood and democracy, then we are safe, that is, whether we are determined to sacrifice economics for these goals. But if those things are more important than values, it is a great sacrifice for economic things, ”says political scientist Laurynas Jonavičius.
Economists and political scientists acknowledge that there is no other way to sanction the Lukashenko regime, even though we are hurting or helping the Putin regime to take over the fertilizer market.