Sweden the team Ireland would prefer to avoid
Ten matches, no wins and only two goals – Uefa Nations League, which has been declared an antidote to everyday friendly matches, has not yet become friends with Ireland.
It can only get better and for Stephen Kenny’s sake, the third edition of the competition must, when Ireland discover their group opponents tonight.
It may have been tricky to win his first match at home against Oman in October, but Kenny was on edge with the prospect of changing Ireland’s hot record in a competition that has promotion rather than direct tournament qualification at stake.
“Our ambition is to win the group and I think it’s realistic to do that,” Kenny promised. “I think if we apply ourselves and continue to improve and the players get more exposure, we can strive to do so. We will take it very seriously by prioritizing it. It would give us a European Championship play-off regardless. how we do in the group. ”
His later statement is correct, but will be difficult to deliver unless the draw in Nyon is kind to them.
Such is the emphasis that Uefa has placed on promoting this new venture, even a second place could be a play-off for the European Championships 2024 in Germany.
For the latest tournament, the delayed European Championship 2020, four places were made available to nations that did not qualify directly through the regular campaign.
The fact that Ireland, who finished at the bottom of their first group in 2018, got a back door route, by meeting Slovakia in a finally unsuccessful semi-final, highlighted the possibilities of being part of a 24-team showpiece.
Uefa will not confirm until next year if the same quartet of places are offered through Plan B, but regardless of the changes, Kenny needs victories in the six group games to dispel the cloud of uncertainty that hangs over his job.
Although his contract until July covers the first four games in June and the extension will cover the last two in September, the contract means little if CEO Jonathan Hill or his board feel he is still learning at work after what would then be a 28- playing time.
A maximum severance pay is considered to be part of all new conditions, which protect the indebted FAI from a seven-digit liability if their beliefs are not matched by results.
Expectation levels will be framed by the draw, which changed from an open event in Montreux, Switzerland, to a closed version, an hour-long journey along Lake Geneva to Nyon.
Ireland is placed in League B, reserved for nations ranked from 17 (Ukraine) to 32 (Armenia) in the European position.
Ireland, ranked 28th, is in the second pot of four, so can not face Israel, Romania or Serbia.
Much has changed since Pots 1, 2 and 4 were extrapolated at the end of the latest Nations League edition 13 months ago, creating a quality difference between the options they could face.
For example, among the best opportunities, Ukraine and Sweden are now among the top 25 in the world, while Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iceland end up in 61st and 62nd place respectively.
Sweden is without a doubt the team Ireland would prefer to avoid. They have reached six European Championship tournaments in a row, the most recent World Cup 2018, and a playoff in March for the next.
Ukraine would be the second least desirable, exacerbated by the travel element, but Kenny’s declaration could be content if both of these were avoided.
Iceland is still in free fall. From a top of 18th place in the world three years ago, a fifth place in the World Cup qualifier meant a big meltdown. Their only win came against the electric ripper Liechtenstein but the bigger scandal was underway off the field.
Historical claims of sexual abuse of players that had not been investigated triggered the annihilation of the league’s board and the exclusion of troops from certain players. Last month’s 3-1 loss to Northern Macedonia marked their 12th defeat in their last 20 competitive matches.
Another unbeatable top seed is Bosnia-Herzegovina, a weaker outfit nowadays than the version that Ireland put aside in the European Championship 2016 finals.
Ex-Everton midfielder Muhamed Besic has flushed to 29 and plays in Turkey, while Edin Dzeko will be 36 when the Nations League kicks off in June.
The most recent slope at the World Cup qualifiers was their worst ever, a meager return of seven points from 24, which left them a distant four in Group D after Finland.
There is undoubtedly a superior lineage over the nations in pot 2. Finland beat Ireland at home and away in the latest UEL, while Scotland is at the top after a barren stretch in the wilderness.
Like the Scots, Russia has a World Cup final to compete for before its Nations League commitments and would provide enormous resistance.
They pushed Croatia to the top spot until the final stage of the World Cup qualifiers, and eventually missed a point in the last match when an own goal decided a draw between rivals.
The final alternative from that subset, Norway, has what none of the others have – a world-class striker in Erling Haaland. His future will probably dominate the structure around the June matches.
There are a couple of landmines in Pot 4.
Slovenia would be at about the same level as Ireland, Montenegro is about to be revived, but avoiding Albania is the mission.
Ireland’s best draw:
Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Armenia.
Ireland’s worst draw:
Sweden, Ireland, Russia, Albania.