Information bomb for Putin and Belarus – Charter’97 :: News from Belarus – Belarusian news – News from Belarus – Republic of Belarus
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- Telegram-channel “CYNIC”
- 12/13/2021 8:39 am
- 7 916
Before us now is the “decline of the empire.”
At the request of subscribers, we disassemble the so-called “Sokurov’s demarche” that the peoples of the Russian Federation must themselves determine whether they want to be a part of Russia. The call to “let go of all” the role of the “bomb” in the fresh information flow.
We are now facing the “decline of the empire”: the ex-mighty power, by its actions a decade ago, pulled into the vortex of “cyclical chaos”. And no matter how paradoxical it sounds now, Crimea broke its teeth in a promising country.
After the Georgian campaign, which remained in the “shadow” of reaction, it was the “Ukrainian battle” that caused irreparable economic damage.
This stagnation did not last so long – it was replaced by economic weakening amid armed hysteria. The war moved to TV, the rest of the “war games” were played by “mercenaries”, but not by the regular army, increasing the factor of economic disaster.
The “lost decade” is not scary, but during this decade the whole world has gone very far ahead. Catching up will not work – you can only plunge into military chaos and be defeated there.
According to its policy, the Russian Federation has always been an empire – “we think not about people, but about military successes and external enemies.” All Empires developed according to this scenario (and they all collapsed). The empire ends when the possibility of unimpeded expansion of territory by ideological, military or economic means ends. That is, when there are no external successes, and the people are still in poverty, the questions arise: “For what?”
And step by step we saw the “stop” of this hellish colossus: ideologically, not a single real ally remained. Russia even managed to lose the elections in Moldova …
Ideologically, the idea of joining the Empire is becoming more and more toxic. On the other hand, the economic impact on the work is funded at one time, but this is an extraordinary solution that works 1-2 times, and on this actual pressure, work takes place at point 1-2. In this regard, the rest of the world is dependent on the United States and China, but Russia, which seeks to join this “club of the great,” cannot even boast of such regions.
There remains a war, but it makes no sense without ideology and economics. So we have in front of our nose “imperial zugzwang”.
Sokurov gracefully notes the idea that the “peoples” may soon be asked to leave, because it will be impossible to feed them economically (like Chechnya) in the future; ideologically – more and more on the outskirts one can see the flourishing of national culture; Although the “elites” are controlled by the Kremlin, they have “loyalty” and guarantee order only for “” “and the absence of sound control over lawlessness from above.
There is an unspoken agreement between the elites: “You pay us – we do not rebel.” This system is not viable. Economic stagnation leads to a decrease in rations and loyalty, therefore, in the future, Russia may face a “collapse” of local “kings”.
And the power elites are aware of this. This thesis of Sokurov about the possibility of “cutting off territories” resonated quite interestingly in the power bloc – there many “nodded their heads” with agreement.
That is, the strong centralized power in the Russian Federation begins to disintegrate – the regions become autonomous, and the institutions of independence themselves have not been built – the “state” system will build impossibilities without economic domination, because the subjects of the federation have no economic prospects.
This is an objective problem that will explode. And in this sense, Putin, keeping the problem with the power vertical, remains the guarantor of only that which means that in such an empire structure problems are growing that will rupture the state mechanism at the most inconvenient time.
Propaganda likes to cite Libya as an example. Immediately after the end of Gaddafi, “horror” began, because under Gaddafi’s monotonous rule, problems accumulated, and they did not explode until they found the “exhaust point.” Lack of compromise always leads to the same consequences. Conservation and stabilization in Russia’s understanding is always a path to further total chaos.
And for the last 20 years, “stable Russia” has been forcibly held back by the “lid under pressure.” This pressure was especially felt after the annexation of Crimea.
Belarus frankly does not fit into this mechanism. The last “war of annexation” is fatal for any dying empire. Russia has established an unstable mechanism of state power, in which other regions become new points of escalation and disorder.
And the current administration is not even trying to solve the problem with this “bubbling pan”. In an effort to leave all problems “under the carpet”, Russia repeats the fate of the late 10s and 80s.
In the first case, the country was destroyed by war; in the second, the economy. If you shut up the opposition for a long time and “score” on problems in such a territorially huge country, then there will always be one result: “conservation” will lead to an “explosion”.
If Russia wants to attack Ukraine, then both the 10th and the 80th will be repeated at the same time. If it continues to go “its own path of stability”, it will repeat the outcome of the destructive economic 80s.
For 20 years Russia has repeated the entire path of the USSR. There was also a period of post-revolutionary chaos in the 90s, and a period of economic boom mixed with liberalism in the 2000s (the Stalin-Khrushchev model is the best time at the same time, by the way), and a period of stagnation and the Cold War (Fulton’s speech and Brezhnev now), stability is over (Andropov , Chernenko), the time has come for economic disintegration (Gorbachev – then he could change something: he shoved all the problems “under the plinth” and waited for an accidental “victory”), as well as a systemic collapse.
That the war with Ukraine, that the annexation of Belarus – this is the second Afghanistan. In the first case – in a shorter perspective, in the second case – in a longer perspective. And without them, taking into account the “conservation” of problems “under the carpet,” the “parade of sovereignties” will take place against the background of the split of the autonomous elites (with the exception of Chechnya, perhaps). It is possible to avoid problems – it is necessary to solve the problems, and not to throw them into the “basement”, saying that “it will solve itself.” There is “air” in the “banks” – and they will start “shooting”.
Are there any tendencies towards problem solving? No. There is only a tendency to suppress them. But if your shed is on fire, then because you will not discuss it, it will definitely not stop burning. The authorities say: “Hush. Do not provoke a riot and panic.” And the barn continues to burn – and will soon spread to the house.
As Biden aptly remarked recently: “But Putin’s tundra is on fire.” You can put out the fire in silence. The smell of burning is “American propaganda.” All those who talk about him are “foreign agents”. Virtual reality is a cool ideological tool, but not when flames lick someone’s back. Then it will be too late …
Telegram channel “SINIK”