Vaccination and mortality from covid in Russia. What the numbers say | Russia and Russians: A View from Europe | Dw
Excess mortality in Russia over the two years of the pandemic is approaching the mark of 1 million people. Given that mortality data are released late, the sad milestone may already be crossed. This means that Russia could have suffered the largest human losses due to the pandemic since the United States. At the same time, vaccination in Russia is not proceeding at a high high rate. Why, even among the leaders in terms of vaccination rates, more Russians still die than last year – in the DW material.
In October, the pandemic claimed the most lives of Russians
October 2021 set an anti-record for excess mortality in Russia during the pandemic. There are 100,509 more deaths in the country this month, compared with the average deaths in October 2015-2019. Such data was published researcher at the University of Tübingen (Germany) Dmitry Kobak, who studies the figures provided by Rosstat.
Vaccination rates in Russia still leave much to be desired
Most Russians in excess of the five-year pre-pandemic norm died in October in Bashkortostan (4830 people), Moscow (4555) and Tatarstan (4491). From the headquarters for the fight against coronavirus there is more recent, but less accurate data on deaths from coronavirus in November this year. There, Sevastopol (72), Penza region (53) and Khakassia (53) are among the three anti-leaders in mortality per hundred thousand people.
According to official figures, morbidity and mortality are currently declining. Independent sociologist Alexey Raksha leads own estimates of incidence by the number of searches in the search system (for example, “coronavirus treatment” and “lost sense of smell”). The number of these requests is now also decreasing, from which the expert concludes that the incidence rate is declining, followed by mortality.
Large regions of the Russian Federation may already achieve herd immunity
Looking at the excess mortality table published by Dmitry Kobak, one can see that by the fall the situation in St. Petersburg has noticeably improved, in which in the spring and summer it was one of the worst in terms of this indicator. So the statistics were affected by vaccination and the virus carried by the townspeople, says an epidemiologist from the University of Tampere (Finland) and director of the Institute for Interdisciplinary Medical Research of the European University (St. Petersburg) Anton Barchuk.
Caricature by Sergei Elkin on the theme of the new wave of the pandemic
“Very large regions – Moscow and St. Petersburg – may be in that phase when the overwhelming majority of others have been ill or vaccinated,” the scientist points out. – According to our research, more than 80% of St. Petersburg residents have either been ill or vaccinated. Ed…) “That is why Barchuk assumes that the city is experiencing the current wave of the pandemic easier than the summer and autumn-winter last year.
The Penza region is the anti-leader in mortality from covid in November, while the rate of vaccination in it is one of the highest in the country. According to the portal Gogov.ru, 58.2% of the population have already been vaccinated there. More only in the Tyumen (60%) and Belgorod regions (63%). At the same time, the excess mortality in the same Belgorod region this fall is still higher than last – when vaccination has not yet begun.
What Role Do Fake Vaccination Certificates Play?
“Even if 70% of the residents of the Belgorod region have antibodies,” explains Anton Barchuk, the paradox is still not enough to stop the epidemic against the background of delta-variants. Enough to fill medical facilities for several more months and ensure high mortality. ” The epidemiologist emphasizes that the deaths would be even higher if 60% were not vaccinated.
Barchuk disagrees that fake COVID-19 vaccination certificates play a significant role in vaccination statistics. For example, HSE associate professor Alexei Zakharov made a calculation that according to the relevant certificates, it can be up to a third of their total number. And the medical director of the Semeynaya clinic, Pavel Brand, assumed that there might be about a quarter of them.
“It seems to me that this is an exaggerated problem and this is a problem, first of all, those people who are not protected from coronavirus,” believes Anton Barchuk. “I can operate on the data of a representative anonymous survey that we conducted in St. Petersburg. which is reported by the state “.
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