“I exclude that in the vicinity two weeks, and therefore until Christmas, Lazio can pass into the yellow zone”. The regional councilor for health Alessio D’Amato is confident but it is not just a question of “optimism”. His words are supported by the data and, in particular, by the Rt index lower than the Italian average. “Our technicians who elaborate the projections – he adds – are quite certain that the Region can remain in the white zone but it is necessary not to be able to turn to attention”. Detractors might object: the daily contagions circulating draw, therefore Covid is infected and then how is it possible to make this so optimistic forecast? Simple, the data must be known to read.

“The numerical value of the infections – continues the commissioner – must be considered on the weekly incidence and although the data show a slight increase, this increase in percentage terms represents half of what there was in the past”. Using a metaphor, the analysis of councilor D’Amato can be summarized as follows: “Let’s pretend that Covid is a car that up to three weeks ago walked in third gear, now it continues to walk but at reduced speed because from third we switched to second gear. The car (or the virus ed) does not stop naturally – explains the commissioner – but proceeds less quickly ».

The Region, and more generally the entire country, has reached a condition where the daily analysis of the data may not be exhaustive and clarify the progress of the pandemic. Yesterday, for example, cases in Lazio had returned to rise compared to the previous day which marked a decline on Thursday. The daily fluctuation is therefore too variable to be able, alone, to decree an improvement or a worsening of the situation. “It doesn’t make much sense to focus on the number of daily cases”, continues D’Amato who could warn: “It is clear that the scenario could change to the extent that, for example, tomorrow 10 thousand people gathered without any kind of mask but if we continue as we are doing, that is with the attention to the use of the devices and with the reminders of the third dose, we will surely have a peaceful Christmas ». Yesterday afternoon, however, while the Romans respect the new ordinance of the mayor Gualtieri on the obligation of outdoor masks, 300 “no vax” and “no Green pass” meet again at the Circus Maximus without protection. Filmed and identified by the police “will be fined”, the police station said.

THE SHIELD”
Meanwhile, the data on vaccinations are increasing also in view of Monday when the “super” Green pass will come into force. “We have noticed an increase in doses not only for the third dose – concluded D’Amato – but also for the first ones which in the last week have gone from 2,000 to 4,000 per day, in part it depends almost on the new provisions but also on the awareness of many people who look at what is happening around us ». Last year, on 4 December, Lazio recorded the same number of positive cases but with 2,466 fewer hospitalizations. A sign that the vaccine represents a valid “shield” to the virus which, although it continues to infect, does not find lost ground, considering the asymptomatic positives. And for the fourth dose, which is already being discussed, the Region is holding back, hoping – as the director of Spallanzani Francesco Vaia said in an interview with Il Messaggero – an annual booster as happens with the flu vaccine.