The World Bank has developed 4 scenarios of losses from the “green” transition – RBK
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All of the global warming scenarios considered by the World Bank will decline by 2050 in the baseline scenario. The most advantageous for Russia is the inertial non-cooperative scenario, in which the fuel importing countries unilaterally introduce the price on the internal shaft, but without border tax taxes: in this case, according to the results of the WB modeling, the level of Russia’s welfare will decrease by 3%, and GDP – only on. 0.9%. The World Bank warns that it is not worth betting on such a scenario for Russia: “It is impossible to determine the likelihood and timing of the deployment of a coalition of countries wishing to achieve a border adjusting internal tax, but if such a tax is introduced, it can have the most negative impact on economic growth and” welfare citizens of Russia “.
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In the non-cooperative scenario, by 2050 the GDP model is by 4.6%. “Consequently, participation in joint actions to combat climate change is a more effective strategy for Russia,” says the World Bank. In late October, the Russian government adopted the 2050 Low Carbon Development Strategy (.pdf), however, it does not mention the “model on the ceiling” intent – the instrument is named only as a target scenario for the most inefficient carbon intensive industries. Paying for carbon emissions, meanwhile, is a central element in the fight against climate change, which usually accepts tax or tradable permits (quotas) on emissions, the WB notes. The Russian strategy “does not disclose the details of the policy instruments that are being achieved in achieving these goals, but, for example, based on the” intensive “scenario, it can be concluded that it is possible to reform energy subsidies and carbon values in one form or another,” the WB interprets.
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Prospects for “carbon prices” in Russia.
The Ministry of Economic Development of RBC did not confirm that Russia could introduce a national carbon payment after 2030. In this case, the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov can be expanded to a larger number of territories. “Within the framework of the” Sakhalin experiment ” [по организации торговли углеродными единицами] Lead the movement towards domestic neutrality through fiscal regulation of greenhouse gases. Experimental carbon regulation measures in various carbon industries, including carbon pricing. In fact, there is “trading in quotas”, – Deputy Minister of Economic Development Ilya Torosov told RBC.
According to Torosov. “This also includes the option of creating a certification system, the essence of which is the independent confirmation of the conformity of the manufacturer’s technologies with the best available technologies (BAT). If this option is supported, the certificate will mean that the technology is actually “low carbon”. Accordingly, such a certificate can be an argument in resolving the issue of cross-border carbon tax in the EU, ”he said.
The European Commission announced plans for a Cross-Border Mechanism (CBAM) in July this year – the world’s first indirect tax on greenhouse gas emissions generated during the production of a product. The Russian authorities are without these plans, even that in the current version the European CBAM will not apply to oil and oil products, gas, and coal. But the WB analysis shows that the isolated plans of the European Union – import tax on imports will hardly introduce the Russian economy. Simulation results show that the CBAM reduction in exports to the EU will partially offset exports to other countries. Taking into account all the effects of a decrease in Russian exports to the EU, by 2035 it may amount to only 0.4-1.2%. “The macroeconomic effect of this measure across the entire economy is assessed as insignificant,” the World Bank concludes.
Russian business in relation to the EU options for revising the carbon tax
Optimal scenario for oil and gas
“Green” transformation can also lead to a decrease in the cost of fossil fuel resources, the WB notes. The most dangerous for the Russian hydrocarbon sector is an additional cooperative, which allows it to be set at a high level in order to keep the temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial era. In this case, the Russian cost of oil, gas and coal resources could fall by $ 400 billion (in 2018 prices) by 2050, the World Bank has calculated. The cost is calculated as the net present value (NPV) of resource revenues generated over the period of operation of individual fields from 2018 to 2050. In the scenario of “high cost of services worldwide”, the cost of Russian gas will fall the most – by $ 267 billion, but the cost of oil resources will suffer the least (minus $ 63 billion). script.
The implementation of the “normal” cooperative scenario, in which countries impose a “normal” carbon price, leads to a decrease in the cost of oil resources compared to the loss of gas and coal and compared to other scenarios, according to the WB. Therefore, joint pricing of domestic interests in all countries, including itself. In this scenario, Russian oil resources “become cheaper” by only $ 21 billion (and, for example, natural gas – by $ 186 billion). Somewhat paradoxical. According to the World Bank, this is due to the setting of payments for domestic fuel in countries that import fuel from China and India, the price of fuel for foreign consumers will grow faster and the process of replacing internal combustion, especially in transport, will accelerate.
“Perhaps the hydrocarbon industry believes that if Russia simply does nothing, that is, it follows the principle, as usual, business as usual, it will be less risky than adapting to the new reality. <...> You say that the oil and gas lobby wants to maintain the status quo. But the oil and gas sector does not control the demand for fossil fuels. And the International Energy Agency has already predicted that demand for oil, gas and coal will collapse by 2050. What should you do if the value of one of your assets falls? You need to invest in other assets, in human capital, renewable natural capital (forests, oceans, biodiversity), which will benefit your economy in the long term, ”said Renault Seligmann, WB Director for Russia, to RBC.