Portugal can mediate peace between Morocco and Algeria
According to Fabiani, director of the International Crisis Group (ICG) Program for North Africa, who spoke to Lusa on Tuesday night on the sidelines of a conference in Lisbon entitled “North Africa: Tensions and Conflicts”, Portugal Deveria fill the space for diplomatic communication between the two North African neighbors.
“Portugal could be this type of actor, in the middle of the two countries, who could facilitate a dialogue, a kind of initial conversation to, later, open up a possibility of recovery, a more structured mediation”, underlined Fabiani, after the conference organized by Islamic World Observatory (IMO).
Asked whether it would not be more logical to assign this diplomatic role to Spain or France, Fabiani showed some reservations, since both these countries “have interests in both Morocco and Algeria”, which is why a “great goodbye” from both countries is necessary. North Africans, “also because of their history of colonization”.
“Portugal does not have this type of baggage, this type of limits. It is a smaller country, which does not pose the same type of problems, in a way, to Morocco and Algeria. It could be more acceptable as a mediator or as a diplomatic actor in this type crisis “, he maintained.
For the director of the ICG Program for North Africa, as tensions between the two neighboring countries are creating “the greatest risk ever” of a war between them, due, “partially”, to the issue of Western Sahara, a territory disputed between Morocco and the Polisario Front.
Another reason given is the recent presence of Israel in the region, with Fabiani recalling that, just this month, less than a year after the resumption of diplomatic relations between Tel Aviv and Rabat, the two countries signed a historic agreement in the area of defense and security.
“This is seen by Algeria as a threat to its national security,” said Fabiani, who also highlighted the mutual accusations of military personnel in each of the countries.
“Right now, all of this is bringing the two countries closer than ever to a war,” he warns.
Asked by Lusa about whether the authorities in Algiers somehow intend to balance the power of force with Morocco, resorting, for example, to Russia, Iran or even China, Fabiani did not exclude this possibility.
“Algeria wants to balance the relationship Morocco has with Israel and wants to do that through a closer relationship with Russia, in particular. Algeria is already the biggest buyer of Russian weapons and military equipment in Africa. It wants to deepen this type of relationship. of relationship and would probably like to have a special relationship with Russia and, perhaps, ideally, to involve Russia in this crisis”, he maintained.
For Fabiani, Portugal and Spain have a “very big risk” in the intensification of tensions between Morocco and Algeria and, in the event of conflict, they will face large migratory flows, including those created to force European countries.
“Now we are witnessing a worsening of relations between Morocco and Algeria and the risk of open war could lead Morocco not to control the migratory flows that pass through its territory or also to use illegal immigration to put pressure on European countries. very large risk, especially for the Iberian Peninsula, “he warned.