New winds can blow from Germany, and Hungary can feel the same
A stronger Europe and a stable NATO
The future Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, would certainly be a promoter of closer European cooperation. The Greens, too, am not in the misty, unfolded promises of deepening integration,
BUT THEY WANTED TO CREATE A EUROPEAN FEDERAL REPUBLIC.
This concept fits the model of the European federalists in the United States of Europe, but its name is different. In the first steps of this radically deepening integrationt the extension of majority decision-making in the European Council (the highest body of heads of state and government) (supported by the SPD) and then confirmed by the European Parliament, the Council (currently the legislative body of ministers) would become its upper chamber.
According to Baerbock, one of the big mistakes of the European Union and Germany in recent years has been that it has been too passive in foreign policy. He said European-American relations could be strengthened with the current US administration.
It is also worth examining what to expect from a new German government a NATO respect.
- One of the big questions in this regard was the future of U.S. nuclear weapons stored in Germany, which was best placed to deter Russia. Concerns have been raised that Baerbock said a few weeks ago that he would be planning to reduce the number of relevant nuclear weapons and, ultimately, to completely dismantle the nuclear arsenal. However, the coalition treaty has softened a lot of this position. Accordingly, it was noted that NATO could continue to store such weapons on German territory, but only as long as the international situation required it.
- The other important point was the issue of German defense spending. Indeed, every NATO member is expected to spend 2 percent of its annual GDP on defense, but many, including Germany, have not yet done so. During his presidency in the United States, Donald Trump often criticized Germany for this practice. Although the German defenses still do not reach the required level, it is clear that Berlin has spent more and more in this area in recent years. For example, a 3 percent increase was reported this year compared to last year. Experts believe that this trend will continue in the future, but rather to achieve a common European force that can support both the SPD and the Greens.
A more critical tone towards Moscow
The Greens have always been much they were more critical Russia as well as the union parties or the SPD. The actions of the Putin leadership against Ukraine, or even against Russian opposition activists such as Alexei Navalny, were often criticized.
This also appeared on specific topics, with Baerbock’s party being, for example, the loudest opponent of the North Stream 2 gas pipeline connecting Germany to Russia, which even called for a shutdown.
In this respect, the Greens have chosen one of the best Atlantean formations in German politics, as it has repeatedly tried to persuade the U.S. leadership, among others, to get out of the investment.
However, the position of the Greens also has an important reading on climate protection.
The party’s stated goal is to make the German economy climate-friendly, so the promotion of green energy will be emphasized. Based on this consideration, the Greens no longer supported the construction of the pipeline, because it alone would increase Germany’s hunger for gas and hinder climate neutrality, but at the same time tighten the German economy’s dependence on Russia for energy.
However, it is also true that Germany has become even more in need of natural gas in recent years, not least in order to make up for the energy shortages caused by the closure of nuclear power plants. This factor narrows the room for maneuver of the future foreign minister in relation to Russia, not to mention that the SPD, which is more tolerant of the Kremlin, will certainly try to cool the Greens’ more radical ideas in this area.
Red lines against China
A green-led German foreign ministry will certainly be more critical of China as well. The party has already voiced that Angela Merkel’s governments were beyond the Beijing leadership, as no action has been taken at the municipal level against the demolition of Hong Kong or the violations against the Uyghur minority.
It is also clear from the coalition treaty that has just been adopted that the new German foreign affairs could criticize the Chinese leadership more often.
The wording of the convention states that China is both a potential partner and a competitor. products also mentioned only red lines, these include the issue of Taiwan. According to the document, the position of the future government is that the disputed status of the island can only be settled by peaceful means through mutual agreement. In addition to this South China Sea, it has been stated that border disputes there can only be resolved in accordance with the provisions of international maritime law.
Experts say Chinese diplomats too they are worried about the impact that Merkel’s departure and a green foreign minister will have on German-Chinese economic relations and fears that other European countries may line up behind stronger German action.
However, a radical break is uneconomical simply because German exports are heavily exposed to the Chinese market. In April, for example, the strong turnover in China in particular boosted the performance of the largest euro area economy, which was otherwise severely affected by the coronavirus epidemic.
New winds may blow in the direction of Hungary as well
It is already clear from the televised debates of the chancellor candidates that Baerbock is much tougher action urges against Hungary, compared to Armin Laschet or the future Chancellor, Olaf Scholz.
Baerbock then talks about the need to withdraw the disbursement of new funds to Hungary because of the behavior of the Hungarian leadership in recent years, but both Scholz and Laschet have rejected this.
Of course, the statements made in a televised debate do not necessarily mean that he will actually turn in this direction under the Baerbock Foreign Ministry of German foreign policy. On the one hand, because on specific issues, you will certainly need to consult with the much more cautious Scholz. On the other hand, it is worth noting that principles in foreign policy are often overridden by practical considerations. The Greens had once headed the Foreign Ministry under the Schröder government, when Joschka Fischer was the head of German diplomacy. At that time, it was in the context of the NATO mission in Kosovo that the Greens were in dilemma, who had to choose not to take part in the mission, maintaining pacifist policies, or to give it up. Fischer put down the garas next to the latter, and he had a hard time convincing the membership about it.
Cover image source: Michael Kappeler-Pool / Getty Images