In the case of open Russian aggression against Ukraine, Lithuania will also decide: assess the scenario
A large-scale war in Ukraine – bigger than it was in 2014 or now – is unavoidable, but unfortunately a possible scenario. It was also talked about when Russia concentrated on the borders of Ukraine and occupied territories over 100 thousand. soldiers. Similar processes are repeated now – not only the Ukrainians themselves, but also the allies are preparing for a possible escalation of the conflict.
Talks are already boiling not only about political, diplomatic support for Kiev, but also about US military aid – primarily the supply of armaments and equipment, and the sending of troops to Ukraine is already being openly discussed in the UK media.
The signals from NATO countries seem very clear: we want to avoid escalation and do everything we can to make the Kremlin understand – if only the Russians had such aggressive intentions, it would be a big mistake. But the West and Russia seem to be lost in the translation – mutual accusations of heating the atmosphere do not yet promise calm, on the contrary, the desire to believe in the best for the increasingly obscure preparation for the worst.
Kiev has been preparing for such a scenario, where it would no longer be a hybrid attack by green men but an open Russian military aggression with large conventional forces that Ukraine would have had to fend off. And relevant decisions may have to be made not only by the Ukrainians, but also by the countries that support them, including Lithuania, which has its own troops in Ukraine.
Is the situation since the spring?
In addition, the participation of Blue / Yellow, the head of Blue / Yellow, in the show “Delphi Theme”, was skeptical about the possible open conflict, but assured that the Ukrainians are ready and psychologically determined – they constantly remind that despite the Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015, who formally stopped the fire, the war never stopped: the use of artillery is forbidden, the shots echo, the soldiers are killed in the line of contact, they are injured.
He spoke similarly now, 7 months after the first mobilization of Russian forces at Ukraine’s borders. However, a new phase of the war – the escalation before the invasion or strikes throughout the territory of Ukraine, not only in the Donbass and is now not ruled out.
“It simply came to our notice then. The mood of Ukrainians is combative, but they watch calmly, without panic, there is determination, concentration. There are a lot of volunteers with guns at home, if anyone will, they will see. And that’s what you say, not politically, “Ohman said, acknowledging that the crisis was unlikely to end anyway, at least this time around.
In his opinion, a lot depends on the position of the West, on the USA, on Lithuania – if these allies of Ukraine are determined and united, dare to say a clear “stop” to Russia, then nothing will happen. However, the situation – both international and domestic – is not favorable for the Ukrainians: there are open political struggles inside, and the country’s political leadership is under pressure due to scandals.
At that time, as the Minister of National Defense Arvydas Anušauskas acknowledged, attention is being paid and attention is being drawn to the migrant crisis on the border with Belarus.
For example, in the airspace of Lithuania and Poland, in recent weeks, there has been a noticeable increase in the intelligence of NATO countries – the border with Belarus, and the Kaliningrad region are being closely monitored.
NATO seats 0000-2000Z 2021 November 24
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At that time, the constant mobilization, repulsion and inspection of Russian forces made it difficult to summarize the information: is there a particular threat to open war at Ukraine’s borders, or is it political pressure, both for Ukraine and for the West that supports it?
“The security situation at the borders of Ukraine is not improving, it is getting worse, because when it starts to mobilize Russian capabilities, unlike otherwise, when everything is done suddenly, now it is participating, adding a battalion group somewhere else, we see consistent growth. Russia must be able to supplement the already deployed capacities using the tested scheme, and A. Anušauskas assured it.
In his view, Russia’s political moves, such as refusing to continue the Normandy format, seem to show a shift in certainty: the West may already be preparing for alleged incompetence in Ukraine, while the issue of open war could address both Russia’s internal market and psychological intimidation. concessions You are well aware that the West is doing its utmost to prevent the escalation of the conflict. According to A. Anušauskas, it is no coincidence that in his speech at the College of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Putin promised to maintain tensions, because it works.
However, Ukraine, which is moving further and further away from the Kremlin politically, economically and even culturally every year, may give the impression that now is the best time to resort to open, unprovoked military aggression after weighing all the risks. which does not bind obligations such as those of NATO nations to a country with large conventional forces and nuclear weapons. Right?
Ukraine expects more than just verbal support
This is one of the hopes of the Ukrainians – that not only Vladimir Putin, but also the West can draw its own red lines and steps.
“It simply came to our notice then. Word support is all right, but presence and support are important. Javelin is very happy with the anti-tank systems – it is a good deterrent, as well as the anti-drone (anti-drone) systems received from Lithuania – they help to resist artillery.
They say they see who their real friends are: who talks, those who talk, and who does, including Lithuania, are real friends in trouble, ”J. Ohman noted. In addition to the efforts of the organization he leads and the Lithuanians who donate to it, Lithuania also provides military support to Ukraine – a consignment of armaments and equipment will be handed over to the Ukrainians during the year.
However, the support, equipment, equipment and so on are one thing – all of it is used by the Ukrainians themselves, who, in the event of a major conventional arms war, may suffer casualties against themselves in Donbass, as well as the Russian army, which has been trained in modern weapons in Syria. No matter how much the Ukrainians are inclined to demonstrate, the forces in the conventional large-scale operation are still unequal – the artillery, electronic combat, aviation, cruise and ballistic missiles, the Russians have more armored and live force.
He wants to avoid conflict, but warns Russia
The key issue is the support of Ukraine’s allies and other actions in the event of a major conflict. How would the US administration actually have pursued a different policy than in 2014, when it refused to provide lethal assistance to Ukraine? What can Lithuania do, which has up to 60 soldiers in Ukraine participating in the training mission?
“In case of such aggression, many Lithuania will have to decide on specific actions. There are formats such as QUINT format, where the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Lithuania and Poland are talking about very specific support for Ukraine.
Should advisory troops in these countries retreat as the conflict unfolds? I wouldn’t think so. I don’t think I’ll shrink, continue to do my job. Any advisory activities and support at that time, as now, will be vitally needed, ”said A. Anušauskas.
It is interesting that he kicked out one detail – unlike soldiers from other countries, Lithuanians have no restrictions on where they have to perform their duties, because Lithuania does not divide the ally into the right bank or the left bank of Ukraine (east or west of the Dnieper). This is paradoxical, given that it was Lithuania – like the Grand Duchy of Lithuania – that fought with Moscow for more than a century over the current territory of Ukraine, and that the Dnieper was for some time an undeclared state-of-war war and reciprocity. jos.
It is true that such “no restrictions” for Lithuanian soldiers are great today to ask Ukrainians to participate in combat operations and help defend themselves against Russia on the territory of Ukraine – however, Lithuanian soldiers are on a training mission.
“Let’s not speculate on the scenario, because you know that speculation is turning into misinformation, but we want to warn Russia against reckless action, and we’ve talked to the NATO leader about it – the goal of all countries – said A. Anušauskas, however, acknowledging that “all scenarios need to be assessed”. And it is being done now.
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