This is the future after the pandemic, according to Hungarian scientists
An all-day scientific conference rarely gets national publicity these days, but if we say that recently the elite of Hungarian statisticians and futurists gathered, to draw with scientific thoroughness what the possible scenarios for Hungary ‘s next 30 years might be, many will be banging their heads. One of the nearly twenty presentations at the meeting was about how powerful and highly uncertain forces and factors could determine the country’s future. Research teams working with statistical and text-based methods eventually developed eight outline future alternatives. It also means that in the knowledge of these processes, the role and innovation of society and the elite rests or falls, whichever is realized.
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Setting up a four-segment matrix helped to develop the models for the scenarios.
Thus, the first four scenarios are the development and human-scale use of new technologies and the emergence of local supply chains as a result of climate change.
Photo: MTA video
The most optimistic vision is that Hungary will become a network of responsible communities that is not in the web of a globalized world. According to Model 2, the country remains part of the global world without the full use of human-scale technology. Projects 3 and 4 project a more cloudy scenario, differing only in their shades. The most pessimistic scenario, 4, is on the shadow side of the global world, completely exposed to new technologies.
The second four models, on the other hand, mean the extent to which the primacy of these two areas meets the thinking of decision-makers as a general value in society alongside health and sustainability.
Photo: MTA_video
The most rosy scenario if both people spread that in the present situation, these values are to be followed, and decision-makers subordinate everything to these two goals. If this change of value occurs only in society, Hungary will become an exhausting society, and if everything is left behind, social and environmental catastrophe could occur in the country. Similarly, it can create economic tensions if only sustainable social considerations are the primary consideration and violent greening starts.
The two supervisors, Éva Hideg and Mihály Retek, said at the end of the lecture that their goal is to make people and decision-makers aware of these connections and models, and to initiate a dialogue in society about them. There is a need to finally consciously shape our future after a thorough understanding of the processes, so these scientific results are passed on to decision makers.
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