How is Portugal today and how was it last Christmas? the pandemic numbers
A month before Christmas, Portugal is going through the fifth phase of the covid-19 pandemic, with an increase in infections, but the pressure on health services is much lower than in the same period in 2020.
In various parameters – number of infections, deaths, hospital admissions and patients in intensive care – the data between October 1 and November 22 this year, compared to the same period of the previous year, indicate that the country is currently in a more favorable pandemic situation.
When comparing these two periods, based on data from the Directorate-General for Health, there is a common point: the indicators of the covid-19 pandemic gradually worsened over the 53 days in a draw, both in 2020, as in 2021.
At the end of 2020, this evolution culminated in the worst wave since the beginning of the pandemic, which reached its peak in January and February 2021, with a record number of cases of infection and strong pressure on Portuguese hospitals.
In October of last year, the country was in a state of calamity, later passing to the state of emergency, but now it is in a less restrictive context, since, on October 1st of this year, the mainland territory went into a state of alert, the lowest response level foreseen in the Basic Civil Protection Law.
The group of experts that consults the Government on the management of the pandemic considers that they should be measured before Christmas, given the risk of an exponential increase in the number of cases, which could double or triple in readings weeks.
+++ The cumulative numbers of cases and deaths +++
As of November 22, 2020, Portugal recorded a total of 260,758 cases of coronavirus infection and 3,897 deaths associated with covid-19. A year later, the number of infected was already 1,123,758 and 18,339 people had died.
+++ Less 70% of infections +++
If between October 1 and November 22 of last year, the country had a cumulative total of 180,841 positive cases, in the same period of 2021 this number dropped to 54,429, which represents about 70% less infections by the SARS-virus. CoV-2.
In 2020, the day with the highest number of infections was November 19, with 6,994 cases, and in 2021, it was today, with 3,773.
+++ 81% reduction in deaths +++
Among the various parameters, the smallest reduction is that of deaths associated with covid-19, which presents a decrease of 81% in the comparison between the two periods: in 2020, 1,926 people died per covid-19, but this number fell to 364 in 2021.
In 2020, November 11 was the day with the most deaths, 82, while in the same period of 2021, it was November 22, with 18 deaths.
+++ Reduction of almost 80% of admissions +++
Another decrease was registered in hospital admissions, which dropped 79.6% in comparison between October 1 and November 22 of this year with the same period in 2020.
In 2020, the basic daily average of 53 days was 1,795 people admitted to the ward, decreasing in 2021 to 366 patients in need of this type of clinical care.
+++ 75% reduction in intensive care +++
We no longer have to do with patients in intensive care units, a reduction in the daily average between the two periods was 75%.
Last year, this average was 259 patients per day, but this year it dropped to 64, which represents 25% of the critical value defined in the pandemic risk analysis of 255 occupied beds. This pressure has been rising in recent days and the 93 patients who were in intensive care on Monday raise this threshold to 36%.
The latest pandemic risk analysis warns that the increase in epidemic intensity in Portugal should condition an increase in the health system’s alert level for health care systems next month.
+++ Vaccination above 86% +++
Considered by most specialists as the determining factor for reducing the pressure on health services, Portugal today has more than 86% of the population fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, which represents around nine million people.
Vaccination in Portugal reached the end of December 2020, but only started cruising months later, with the arrival of sufficient doses in the country to implement the plan defined by the `task force’ led by Vice Admiral Gouveia e Melo.
+++ Highest Transmissibility Index (Rt) +++
On November 22 of this year, the Rt – which estimates the number of secondary cases of infection for each person carrying the virus – is higher (1.19) than on the same day of November 2020 (1.05).
The rate of increase of the SARS-CoV-2 virus nationwide has also registered a significant increase in the weeks, reaching 251.1 cases per 100,000 population today, when not in early October at 101.7.
The last report of the pandemic red lines, released on November 19, warns that the analysis of different indicators reveals an epidemic of moderate intensity, with a growing trend at the national level.
+++ The variants that appeared in 2021 +++
By the end of 2020, national health authorities were determining whether the UK-associated variant of SARS-Cov-2, later called Alpha, was circulating in Portugal, with the first sequences being detected as early as January 2021.
This variant still gained some ground at the beginning of 2021, coming to represent almost 60% of contagions, but was quickly surpassed by Delta, which, in February summary, was already responsible for about half of the covid-19 cases in Portugal.
Since then, a Delta, considered to be more transmissible than the original virus, has become the dominant variant in the country, similarly to what happens in Europe, reaching a prevalence of 100% in recent months.