“This fifth wave, it starts in a dazzling way”, noted Secretary of State and government spokesperson Gabriel Attal, guest on Europe 1, CNEWS and Les Echos Sunday 21 November 2021.

Despite significant vaccination coverage, the government is worried about a strong epidemic resumption just one month away from Christmas.

What level of contamination in Occitania?

What is the situation in our region?

Monday, November 22, in Occitania, the epidemic resumption is obvious. The incidence rate (the number of positive cases for Covid-19 over 7 days per 100,000 inhabitants, Editor’s note) is 167 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. For the time being, our region therefore remains below the national average, which stands at 171 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

The situation is nevertheless different depending on the department. For the time being, four departments have, for example, exceeded the threshold of 200 cases per 100,000 inhabitants: Hautes-Pyrénées (224), Ariège (228), Aveyron (215), Hérault (206) and the Tarn-et-Garonne (201).

Lozère (194) is also above the regional and national average.

Gers (127), Gard (148), Aude (130), Lot (162) and Haute-Garonne (146) are the departments where epidemic data are the most favorable according to the latest figures.

The point in Haute-Garonne

In Haute-Garonne, the spread of the virus has increased for a month and its rhythm is modeled on the epidemic resumption of last July, even though July when the number of screening tests is significantly lower than that of last.

Haute-Garonne is one of the departments in Occitanie where the detection rate is the lowest.

Toulouse, one of the least successful metropolises

Among the large metropolises, Tououse is one of those where the virus circulates the least with 135.3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

At the same time, on November 14, 2020, the incidence rate in Toulouse was 188. It had risen to 424 on the 1^uh November 2020. At the time, vaccination had not started and part of the population had to be reconfigured to reverse the trend.

No “meteoric” increase in hospitalizations in Occitania

As in the four previous outbreaks of the epidemic, the issue is whether this outbreak of infections will lead to a massive influx to the hospital. If we stick to the objectives of vaccination, namely to reduce the number of serious forms and therefore hospitalizations for Covid, the saturation of hospital beds should be avoided as this summer.

In hospitals in Occitanie, if there is an increase in admissions for Covid, for the moment, it is not at all dazzling.

For now, only the department of Ariège shows worrying hospital pressure with 75% of intensive care beds occupied by patients severely affected by covid.

No wave at Toulouse University Hospital

At the Toulouse University Hospital, the situation was not tense on Monday with a dozen patients in intensive care. But caution is still in order because of the gap still recorded between the increase in contamination and the increase in hospitalizations and also because of the resurgence of other diseases which clog emergency services, especially pediatric … and the number of closed beds. in recent months due to a lack of personnel.

In France, critical care admissions are up 32% on average this week. There are currently 1,333 patients in intensive care in French hospitals, a number below what we can know last September but which is increasing slightly (+ 10%).

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