Let’s stick to one and a half. Would Lithuania take refuge in COP29?
Twenty-sixth time not lying?
With a large group of human beings from all over the world gathering under one roof in Glasgow, it is as if an entomologist researching butterflies is watching us make a living. Hardly lucky. At the United Nations conference COP26, the human posture of the impending catastrophe is clearly reminiscent of a bunny when your wolf is already biting his tail, and instead of jumping out of trouble, he chooses a fur color that is better suited to adapt to a lightning-fast environment and remain an unnoticed predator. When you’re without a wolf’s breakfast, it’s not a minute like you look.
This time, at the Climate Conference, even in the Small Island Islands, warnings about the prospect of an uninhabited future flew from the pavilions of the AOSIS Alliance, without the best in the plenary. Alerts were sent not only by delegates from the dwarf island states on the abyss, but also by Frans Timmermans, Vice-President of the European Commission.
Next time you put fuel in your tank, try to imagine in the car what the vice president is talking about. uninhabited (unliveable) future for your grandchildren. For many participants in Glasgow, their future is being erased, a reality that is already visible. Glasgow-met Ashnelli Jeffers from the Caribbean island of Montserrat is facing ever-increasing storms, with one such wreck breaking his friend. At the Climate Change Conference, such stories are no longer surprising.
Glasgow Pact maintaining the goal of the Paris Agreement not to heat the planet to more than 1.5 degrees, but leaving many concessions on fossil fuels to continue to affect the future of humanity and the Earth. So, not everything is decided yet, not for the 26th time.
A name that can’t be mentioned is oil
In the first plenary session observed, there were two fires between Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh. In climate negotiations, both sides represent gaps in the barricades. Some are the bad boys whose state was created on resources that overheated the planet’s atmosphere. Others are the homeless and the downtrodden, who are threatened with global warming as a result of the burning of oil.
And at the conference, they speak in turn! In total, how can delegations with such agendas talk? That is the purpose of the United Nations format – to talk.
It seems unexpected, but none of the 25 climate change conferences in the past has included key terms such as ‘fossil fuels’ or ‘coal’ in its decisions – certainly not in the efforts of countries like Saudi Arabia. I do not mention the oil monarchy just for myself, because the country’s negotiator was one of the most active figures in the plenary sessions. Someone is his salary independent of the words spoken?
Glasgow’s finally-named core category (fossil fuels, Karl!) Takes the permanent air in the verbal blah blah blah of some states. Behind the fence, a protester is demanding a halt to the planet’s biggest polluters – the fossil fuel industry – official talks probably can’t pass. without any comment on it. 2009 in the climate talks in Copenhagen, which were very hopeful and ended in failure, the key words lead to a chance for the duo to write a checklist without mistakes.
However bad guys efforts remain in the document a call for the phasing out of “inefficient subsidies for office fuels” rather than office fuel itself, whatever that means. It would be the same if nutritionists suggested the use of unsweetened curd cheeses, low-fat vedars or pancakes not fried in oil. Everyone after Glasgow already knows that India has also broken the compromise verb on the perspective of coal use: for the time being, the world will not give up coal, it will only reduce it.
In the first plenary session observed, there were two fires between Saudi Arabia and Bangladesh.
By the way, when you get acquainted with the participants, you usually present not only the name and country of origin, but also the acquisition of the orientation: you are Bad guy ar Good boy? Lithuania is a good boy. We want to reduce greenhouse gases by a third by 2030 and know how to do that.
Even the declaration of zero-emission cars, which was signed by Lithuania, passed at the Glasgow workplace. It invites from 2035. forget the sound of internal combustion engines and the most flammable liquid being poured into them. 2009 In Copenhagen, the idea of a new transport era would have seemed insane, as the first-generation Nissan Leaf power plant was probably not on engineers’ drawings at the time.
This means that the United Nations is working – but it is working. Like that sister of a fairy tale, slowly weaving a nettle fiber shirt for everyone, which some or everyone will wear at all.
“Leave 1.5 alive”
No one is innocent? Europeans are innocent of having even greater ambitions from themselves and others needed. The inhabitants of the islands of the small states are innocent that when the planet warms to two degrees, their states will disappear. Are oil-producing countries to blame for not being able to get the raw materials on which their well-being depends? What would we sacrifice – is a gilded nightgown for the lovers of the sheikh harem, or can Tuvalu or Fiji preserve not only its coast, but also the entire territory and statehood of the state?
The countries participating in the United Nations put such arguments on the negotiating table, by default, for two weeks, from morning to evening (our working day was 14 hours). Individual countries are negotiating in blocks in this broad format, and Lithuania shares its mandate with the European Union. Russia continues pasla in its direction without direction.
The largest group in these negotiations is still the G77 + China. Seeing their plenary session on the timetable, I would like to know which starting points are most important to them: I say, I will take an interest. The ministry’s colleagues are making fun of the idea: even if they go inside, they will only support it with a spy.
However, submission to the next high-level bilateral meeting is guaranteed. On Thursday evening, the penultimate day of talks, the Lithuanian delegation is invited by the European Union (EU) to informally discuss the position of some climate change mitigation with the United Nations (UN). I have taken the place of the delegate after offering the offer to attend a British dinner.
The meeting ends with a decision to fall asleep – even necessary before the last round of talks on Friday.
And then Friday shows that Friday wasn’t enough either. And sleep was probably not enough.
The Glasgow Pact was adopted on Saturday at 9 p.m. 40 min. Lithuanian time.
COP29 – in Vilnius?
Climate conferences are like a long journey that has clear goals, but there are routes, including pathways. The next two COPs will take place in countries that you will not call the avant-garde of the climate crisis, namely Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Instead, the intrigue is offered by 2024. United Nations, “following the principle of rotation of regional groups“Looks forward to receiving a proposal to chair COP29 from … Eastern European countries.” Isn’t Poland again? Poland has already hosted three climate conferences, which have only taken place in Germany.
Even the declaration of zero-emission cars, which was signed by Lithuania, passed at the Glasgow workplace.
So if the 29th Climate Change Conference took place … in Lithuania? Especially since this one will be more of a smaller scale than Paris or Glasgow. Such a commitment can be taken seriously or semi-seriously. Seriously, there is still a lack of ideological breakthrough in Lithuania (although you would not say that Poland, which operates the largest coal-fired power plant in Europe, would be as advantageous as possible). Dozens of climate researchers and theorists (primarily at the Institute of Geosciences of Vilnius University) and a handful of professional employees (most of whom are in the Ministry of Environment) are active in the country. In other public sector institutions, from universities to ministries, climate science and policy issues still remain in place. Not to mention that the head of Lithuanian foreign affairs has too many other worries.
When separate headlines for climate change were created in the national media only this year, the organic civic climate movement – the “Uprising Uprising” – began to emerge just a few months ago. With such limited resources, should we have the intellectual weight to hold the conference in three years’ time so that it does not remain just blah blah blah?
In terms of semi-seriousness, hosting an event of this size is a great opportunity. Glasgow is home to about the same number of people as Vilnius – and the city has accepted it almost 40 thousand conference participants. What makes us worse?
1. COP29 would solve the unfortunate conversion of the Vilnius Sports Palace into a conference center. There would be no place to invest – you would have to invest. And the palace would remain for a long time. And photos with the charming composition of the palace roof and Gediminas Tower would spread around the world. If we want a little bit of the irony typical of Vilnius, we could call the roof of Noah another symbol of the ship.
2. The business would make up for the unfortunate pandemic year and still make money in the future. Hotel prices in Glasgow rose 1,000 percent before the conference. One American guest at the conference paid 600 for a night in three-star luxury until now, a week after the conference, in the same excellent quality for 41 euros. Lithuanians would not be as arrogant robbers as the Scots and would apply no more than, say, a 500 percent mark-up to their distinguished guests and guests from all over the world. Then the temporary capital would join, offering accommodation for a human price with the slogan “You can sleep in Kaunas”.
3. Vilnius Airport would automatically make Lithuania famous as a country aggressively striving for climate neutrality, because where you will find a better atmosphere, especially anti-advertising of air transport. If you choose a large ecological footprint that is permanent, be pleasant not only in a crowded plane, but also in the terminal. In addition, a Saudi delegate could be lost at this airport, so the 2024 Vilnius climate agreement could push not only the proposal for ‘inefficient fossil fuel subsidies’, but also the fossil fuel itself!
Try it? The details of the conference have already been announced – this is 2024. November 11-22.
We are left to offer a place.
The section of this publication “Leave 1.5 alive” was clarified at the request of the author due to the sensitivity of the negotiation issues.
Marijus Gailius is the spokesperson for the Minister of the Environment, but this publication is not directly related to this work, the author prepares it for its portal for 15 minutes.