This autumn, the expectations of the Portuguese regarding the future of the country are particularly bleak. More than two-thirds of the surveys in the last ICS / Iscte survey originate that, in 2030, we will pay more taxes and, even so, we will have a higher public debt and more inequality between rich and poor. Few foresee improvements in the standard of living of families or in the position of the Portuguese economy in relation to the richest countries in Europe. Is this pessimism the result of the pandemic context? From the political crisis first foretold and then triggered by the lead of the State Budget? From a cultural heritage that does not make us think that our fate is sad and that the worst is yet to come? Maybe a little bit of all of this. But it may not be just that.

Understandably, when asked what should be a public spending priority to improve Portugal’s future, respondents with lower levels of education and who live with greater difficulties tend to favor pensions and social support to the most disadvantaged. In other words, they prioritize spending that protects the most vulnerable from loss of income due to aging, illness, or unemployment, while preserving, as far as possible – and we know how little this is possible – their purchasing power .

However, the problem arises when, in a context of scarcity of resources, one is forced to make choices between these priorities and others that can help to reduce, in the long term, the social vulnerabilities felt today. For that we would need to invest in expansion of human capital, qualification of the workforce and improvement of conditions for integration into the labor market, increased expenditure on education, child care and scientific research, for example. Unsurprisingly, given that they are the ones who most benefit in the future from returns from this type of investment, it is the young people who give it the most priority in this survey.

It so happens that these young people are also the ones who least vote for advantages and whose presence in policy bodies is scarcer. We would all like these dilemmas not to exist. But when the needs of the present and the future collide, choices are made. In the last decade, among the OECD countries, Portugal was one of those that least increased public expenditure on education per student., although the number of students has decreased. Our public expenditure per child on day care and primary education is now equal to 2005, surpassing only Poland, Chile, Mexico, Turkey and Colombia. Furthermore, after a decade of stagnation in spending devoted to research and development as a % of GDP, we moved from 22nd to 25th place among OECD countries. If the future looks bleak, there are good reasons for it.

Pedro Magalhães, ICS-ULisboa
José Santana-Pereira, Iscte-IUL