Vladimir Putin held another master class dedicated to what during the Cold War in the United States and Great Britain was called whataboutism – literally translated from English as “asyotism.” A classic example is known to all: when Soviet representatives were asked about the persecution of dissidents, they answered: “What about the lynching in America.”

The return of the “Russian world”

At an expanded Foreign Ministry collegium in Moscow, the Russian leader blamed Poland for a border crisis with migrants – although Lukashenko’s Moscow client brings them from the Middle East – and attributed aggressive intentions in the Black Sea to the North Atlantic Alliance – as if forgetting what happened to Crimea in 2014. In Putin’s speech to the ambassadors, several “signals” were sounded, which drew the attention of the world media.

First, Putin again spoke about the “last peace”, and in the context of simplifying the process of Russian citizenship to all who lay claim to it. Imperceptibly withdrawn from use after the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, the phrase “Russian world” is a trigger concept. It, like the other – “Novorossiya”, recalls the peak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2014: the clash in Odessa, the “militias” of Girkin-Strelkov, the creation of puppet Donbass “republics”, the downed Malaysian airliner, torture cellars of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Imagine a massive distribution of the Russian economy in the Moscow-controlled territory of Eastern Ukraine. according to our rules and start following the Minsk rules first and worst.

Putin draws “red lines”

Secondly, a couple of days before Putin’s speech to diplomats, the Russian Foreign Ministry took an unprecedented tactless step – it published the official correspondence of Sergei Lavrov with the German and French Foreign Minister Heiko Mas (Heiko Maas) and Jean-Yves le Drian on Ukrainian topics. The publication of diplomatic correspondence is intended to show that the Germans and the French are exercising preferences in Ukraine. The move sparked dissatisfaction (restrained) in Berlin and Paris. But the Kremlin has long been accustomed to the “deep concern” of European capitals and pays no attention to it.

At a meeting at the Foreign Ministry, Putin raised the degree of confrontation. He demanded from Lavrov to obtain from the West “the provision of long-term long-term services for our security in this area, because they will constantly act there and think about what may happen there tomorrow, Russia cannot guarantee warranty service.” That is, judging by the context, the Kremlin is demanding an end to the use of the American missile defense system in Poland and Romania and the abandonment of the consent, approved at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, for future entry into the Alliance of Ukraine and Georgia.

Third, until this happens, according to Putin, “it is necessary that this state (of tension.)” Ed.) they kept it as long as possible so that it would not occur to them to arrange for us some unnecessary conflict on our western frontiers … “conditions.”

Putin is visibly annoyed. First of all, by the house arrest by the Ukrainian authorities of his godfather Viktor Medvedchuk, accused of high treason. He took this as a personal insult from President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In addition, after a successful meeting with Biden in Geneva in June 2021 and the recent withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. changes and solutions to the Afghan problem.

However, the White House, after some, decided otherwise – they increased the volume of arms supplies to Kiev and sent Defense Minister Lloyd Austin there on a visit. Add to this the contract signed by Ukraine for the construction of destroyers in the UK for the Ukrainian navy and naval NATO exercises in view of the Crimean coast.

Donbass and the “problem-2024”

Putin continues to press the EU and the US for what he is demanding soon for 15 years, since the infamous speech in Munich – the so-called “Yalta-2”. This is the transfer of the entire post-Soviet space under the semi-official control of the Kremlin and the right to veto the admission of new members to NATO. Ideally, Moscow would like to see some of the sanctions lifted, for example, in exchange for cooperation on the Afghan issue.

The artificially created by Lukashenko (with the support of Moscow) the migration crisis on the border of Lithuania and Poland convinces the Russian leadership that various “hybrid” actions are effective. Putin will build up tension.

First, he will try to squeeze out of Lukashenka the official deployment of troops in Belarus. Secondly, it will continue to experiment on the borders of the EU and NATO. Following the migrants, “lost” members of the orienteering club may appear in the Polish forests with “weapons” from the Voentorg. ”Third, and most importantly, the Kremlin is clearly preparing either“ voluntary accession ”or the official“ protection ”of the so-called“ LPR ” “and” DNR. “The decision has not yet been made, but the conditions for this are quickly set. The reason for such a step may be the trial of Medvedchuk, especially if it ends with a conviction.

New agreements for NATO, Putin’s possible decision to stay in the Kremlin in 2024 may also serve as a basis. Since there is no radical economic improvement in the situation, then there is a propaganda rationale for the next extension. The triumphant “rescue of the Russians of Donbass” – why not?

Posted by Konstantin Eggert – Russian journalist, author of a weekly column on DW and interview-project DW “vTRENDde”. Konstantin Eggert on Facebook: Konstantin Eggert, in Telegram: Oberleutenant Eggert

The commentary expresses the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the opinion of the Russian editorial staff and Deutsche Welle in general.

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