Corona in Sweden – Slaughtered after study:
Sweden’s handling of the corona pandemic may have contributed to the spread of infection to other Nordic countries. That is one of the conclusions of a new study, published in the journal Euro surveillance, published by the European Agency for Communicable Disease Control.
It becomes known at the same time as Norway experiences a new swear word. In the last 24 hours, 2,552 corona infections have been registered in Norway. That is 426 more than the same day last week and a new record for a day in this country.
– Sweden exported a lot of viruses during the first year of the pandemic – more than any of the other Nordic countries. Finland in particular got burned for it. Norway and Finland exported – and imported – significantly less. We assume this is because we had stricter restrictions, says FHI senior researcher Jon Bohlin to Dagbladet.
Bohlin is one of the researchers behind the studies, which are a collaboration between the Norwegian Institute of Public Health (NIPH), Swedish University of Uppsala and the University of Sydney in Australia.
– Our studies were not about hanging anyone out, but with the pandemic we got a fantastic opportunity, thanks to the data that has been generated, to do a comparative study where we looked at the extent to which intervention and geography affected how the virus mutates , says Bohlin.
The researchers analyzed 71,000 whole-genome-sequenced viruses from patient samples taken from the global GISAID gene database. Whole genome sequencing is used to show different mutations of the coronavirus.
Nakstad: – I am fully vaccinated
– Miserable
The findings make Steinar Westin, professor emeritus of social medicine at NTNU, react.
Sweden had a miserable handling from day one. They underestimated both the infectivity and mortality of this virus, he says Dagbladet.
However, he is not surprised by the findings.
– It is highly probable that Sweden’s weak corona strategy and lack of shutdown may have led to the virus spreading so quickly and widely, and thus also more quickly entering the other Nordic countries, he continues.
Sweden did not take the signals from the WHO seriously when the pandemic alarm went off, Westin claims.
– They talked for a long time about just “flattening the curve”, but otherwise let the infection spread through society until they achieved the herd immunity that both Johan Giesecke (Sweden’s former state epidemiologist, editor’s note) and Anders Tegnell (Sweden’s current state epidemiologist, editor’s note) talked about – and hoped for. But there they bombed!
The Swedish Public Health Agency has been presented with Westin’s statements. They refer Dagbladet to the «next press conference».
– May require repeated stings
– Thank the Lord for Erna
According to high from John Hopkins University, last updated on Tuesday, Sweden has had 8.2 times as many deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in Norway.
– With the large spread of infection they had, it is likely that they have also contributed to the spread of infection elsewhere in the Nordic region, not least to Finland, says Steinar Westin.
– Can this be read as a confirmation that Norway chose the right strategy in the first year of the pandemic? And possibly that Sweden made a mistake?
– My answer is yes to both.
– How serious is this for the Swedish corona handling?
– That it is serious is quite obvious, in the sense that they misjudged the virus. They had an idea that the original variant of the coronavirus was a slightly nasty flu that they just had to spread. That was their big mistake in the beginning.
Westin is in no doubt about the reason why Norway has lower death rates than Sweden:
– Thank you sir for Erna and Bent Høie, who had the sense and understanding to close down on 12 March 2020. That is what has made us do relatively well.
Employees are infected like never before
Adverse effect
In epidemiology, it is usually “counting heads”, the number of infected and how they infect each other, Bohlin explains. In this study, researchers have primarily focused on the viruses themselves.
– We have followed the mutation patterns, and in that way we have been able to see where they come from and where they moved. What the data shows is that an unfortunate effect of Sweden’s strategy is that there has been a good deal of infection exports, says Bohlin.
Sweden learns “very significantly” from the other Nordic countries in this area, he explains.
– Denmark was extremely good at sequencing viruses, therefore we had much more data from them. In that sense, Denmark probably appears worse in this study than they really are.
Norway, Sweden and Denmark have been far less diligent in sequencing virus samples, according to Bohlin.
– It is not nice to say that, but because of that it may be that Sweden actually looks a lot better in this study than what is actually the case.
Defectors: – Shocked
– Confirms Norway’s strategy
Subject director Frode Forland at FHI is familiar with studies. He says that it has been ready for a while, but was only picked up now.
– The study has put on all introductions that came of the virus to Nordic countries in the first phase of the pandemic, and followed the spread of the subtypes of the virus in the various Nordic countries, says Forland to Dagbladet.
The findings from the studies are interesting, the subject director believes.
– They have followed the genes and specific subgenes of the virus, ie small variations of it, and then made a kind of family tree of the virus in different countries about how it developed.
– Finland and Norway managed to crack down and stop new introductions, but in Sweden the virus managed to develop further. This was later spread back to Norway, Denmark and Finland, says Forland and adds:
– Sweden thus became a kind of net exporter of the virus to its neighboring countries.
– Was this a concern even then?
– This is a confirmation that what Norway, Finland and Denmark did – that is, to put down the virus and introduce a strict border control, had a good effect, Forland answers.
– Breakthrough work
Raises preparedness
The study is also interesting because for the first time, via genetic analysis and genome sequencing, it shows the spread of the virus between countries, according to the director.
– It is a quite elegant study, which comments on a relatively sharp situation between countries in the Nordic region linked to different borders, says Forland.
He says he thinks “one should be careful about making too big headlines of a single study”, but says:
– I think this study shows many interesting findings – and that it provides some backing for Norway’s strategy.
He says he does not know whether there is disagreement related to the new studies, or the conclusions in it.
– This is a methodical groundbreaking work, and it is important to study is highlighted and discussed with a view to the methodological approach it has, says Forland, who elaborates:
– Here it is people who have worked down the gene, and not with the societal initiatives. The study shows the importance of having an institute like ours that has all this on board – ie both methods for whole genome sequencing and modeling, but also contact with those who give advice on national initiatives and initiatives at the borders.
Warns against corona pill: – Disaster
– Great value
Assistant director of health Espen Rostrup Nakstad comments on studies in an SMS to Dagbladet.
– This is a well-conducted study which primarily shows obtained by virus genome sequencing in a pandemic. By following virus mutations, you gain better knowledge of actual transmission routes and can assess the effect of measures. It is a great value, also considering future epidemics and pandemics, he writes.
He does not want to say anything about possibly studying Sweden’s corona strategy.
– I think we should leave it to the Swedish and Norwegian Corona Commission to comment on overall strategy choices in the pandemic. In the case of virus analyzes, the Swedish Corona Commission recently pointed out that genome sequencing confirmed the large domestic spread of pandemic traffic in March 2020.
This latest study confirms that import and export infection is also of great importance in a pandemic, he maintains.
– It is knowledge we would not have had without pictures laboratory analyzes.